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4th December 2007
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
I mentioned yesterday that I wanted to start a
conversation about steamers. I thought we would start with an article from our
guest write Psycho.
Is Last-Minute Money Smart Money?
A number
of people have commented that they watch the betting and wait until the last
possible moment before placing their bets. Their argument is that last-minute
money is smart money. It is placed by 'those in the know'. The last minute
money, if substantial, can cause the odds to change. Therefore, they argue, by
analysing the last minute odds changes, they are able to determine where the
last minute money went. This, in turn, helps them to determine whether a
particular horse will win or lose. The argument is that if the odds on a horse
decreases during the last minute before the off, a lot of late money must have
been placed on the horse to win and is therefore a 'sure thing'. Likewise, if
the odds on a horse increases during the last minute before the off, bookies
are trying to attract punters to back the horse to win because they know that
it will lose.
Well, that's the theory. But, what are the facts?
I have recorded the last change in odds before the off for the
favourite in over 3,000 races. What I found was that the strike rate for
favourites which shortened in odds was slightly less than the strike rate for
favourites which lengthened in odds. In other words, if the last odds movement
of the favourite, before the off, resulted in an increase in odds, then the
horse was slightly more likely to win than a favourite whose odds decreased
before the off. This is exactly the opposite of what would be expected.
However, those are the facts.
Does this surprise you?
It didn't
surprise me.
In 2005, Betfair analysed 65,000 races. They particularly
looked at Steamers and Drifters. A Steamer is a horse whose odds shorten
significantly in the pre-race betting. A Drifter is one whose odds lengthen
significantly in the pre-race betting.
Now, common sense dictates that
Drifters should be layed to lose and Steamers backed to win.
When
Betfair analysed the results, they found that 19% of Drifters went on to win
their races as did 22% of Steamers. Most importantly, if £10 had been
placed on all the horses, £3,000 would have been lost on the Steamers and
£2,000 would have been won on the Drifters. In other words, contrary to
common sense, it would have been financially better to have layed the Steamers
to lose and backed the Drifters to win.
So, is late money for a horse
'smart' money? According to my statistics, and those of Betfair, the answer to
this question is - Certainly Not. In fact, you would be slightly more better
off, financially, if you do the exact opposite of that which the so-called
Smart Money' does.
Psycho
Contact Author
If you have any
questions or comments on the content of this article and wish to contact the
author, please go to:
http://www.laythepsychicway.com
http://www.psycholaysdogs.com
http://www.psychosshortlays.com
Thanks Psycho for your
input and starting of this conversation. Tomorrow we will look into this
subject some more.
--------------------------
A
reader named Gary.
These are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on
paper for the moment, since it is still in testing. However results have been
very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite
quickly:
Laying:
14.27 Crayford BAGS Pishiobury Pingu 4
14.37
Sunderland BAGS Slaneys Cash 2
14.47 Crayford BAGS Cranham Lady 3
15.07
Crayford BAGS Brockhill Bob 2
17.17 Sunderland BAGS September Tango 3
17.44 Crayford BAGS Greenfield Sandy 5
18.18 Sunderland BAGS Autumn
Moonraker 1
18.39 Sheffield BAGS Springwood Bill 5
18.56 Sheffield BAGS
Carrigeen Spring 6
19.27 Sheffield BAGS Montacore Girl 3
19.32
Newcastle BAGS Mill Snowdrop 1
19.37 Hove BAGS Iamisaid 3
19.48
Newcastle BAGS Murdanielclassic 1
20.04 Newcastle BAGS Curly Sue 6
20.31 Sheffield BAGS Knoppogue Master 4
20.41 Hove BAGS Grot Bags 2
21.12 Hove BAGS Maiden Flight 5
21.17 Sheffield BAGS Adamant Rocky 4
21.30 Hove BAGS Mucky Trey 4
21.54 Newcastle BAGS Bellpac Frankie 6
There is no staking involved just level stakes. I will get Gary to send me
all his results so far so that we can put them in to a web page.
2.
Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's
win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.
Yesterday.
No
Selection
Here are today's (win bets)
No Selection Today.
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Betting
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 57.34
Points new
system (30/07/07) + 22.85
Yesterday:
No selections.
Today's:
No Selections
(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday:
Normal: 14:40, Wolverhampton, Wiseman`s Diamond 1st 11/8
Pts
2007: +4.54
Top Choice: 14:10, Wolverhampton, Zennerman 25pts
1st 11/8
Pts 2007: +5.25
Bank =765.70
Today:
Normal:
13:40, Hereford, April San
Top Choice: 15:00, Wolverhampton,
Confidentiality 25pts
(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice
selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts
is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the
22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Turn your lay betting system into winning systems with Roy's easy learn low
risk Amazing staking plans.
Click Here to read
more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
Lay Betting
System Bet
Yesterday:
14.00 Folk, Buckland Gold 3rd 4/1
Today: 13.10 Here, Never So Blue
Please Note: The lay betting
system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for
this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Lay Bet a
Day
14.40 Hereford, Penric Stake
Staking Plan 0.5% to 2% of
your bank, we show staking as 1%
Lay bet a Day
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
http://www.laybetting.com/session.xml
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
http://www.laybetting.com/mals-grey-sys.htm
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days
racing.
Malcolm
Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
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provided.
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.
You
can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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