10th December 2007
I had a great weekend with
my parents and I didn't do a very good job of watching my food
On Friday I published the first part of Psycho's "Does size
is the second part of
Does Size Matter?
There is one thing that is guaranteed to drain a betting bank and that is
consecutive losing bets. Not only does it do severe psychological damage, in
that one quickly loses confidence in a system when one encounters losing bet
after losing bet, but it also does physical damage to the betting bank because
there may be insufficient funds left with which to recover one's losses.
Let's take a laying system whose strike rate is 70%. With such a
system, there is a 50% chance that one will encounter 6 consecutive losing
Now let's take a system whose strike rate is 80%. With such a
system, there is a 50% chance that one will encounter 5 consecutive losing
Now let's take a system whose strike rate is 90%. With such a
system, there is a 50% chance that one will encounter only 3 consecutive losing
Notice that as the strike rate increases, the number of
consecutive losing bets decreases.
One of my systems has a strike rate
approaching 97%. Yes, the average odds of the selections is high, however, the
chances of it encountering more than one consecutive loser is remote. That
isn't to say that it won't, it is just that it is very unlikely. Yes, I lose a
bundle when I encounter a losing bet, however, it doesn't take long to recover.
Now let's look at backing, rather than laying, systems. Backing
systems, in general, have a lower strike rate than laying systems. I looked at
a web site this morning. The average strike of the backing systems being
proofed was about 32% whereas the average strike of the laying systems being
proofed was about 82%. Now, a system with a strike rate of 32% has a 50% chance
of encountering 15 losing bets in a row. This is enough to reduce any backer to
tears, not to mention a betting bank!
So, from this point of view, it
is far better to be a layer than a backer and, if you are a layer, it is far
better to lay longer-priced horses than shorter ones.
So, does size
matter? - YOU BET IT DOES!
Contact Author If you have any
questions or comments on the content of this article and wish to contact the
author, please go to: http://www.laythepsychicway.com
I hope this has got
you thinking. Tomorrow I will add my 2 pennies worth.
A reader named Gary.
These are for laying, I
do suggest people only do this on paper for the moment, since it is still in
testing. However results have been very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad
days, but has recovered them quite quickly:
Sheffield BAGS Aunt Nora 5
15.58 Walthamstow BAGS Silky Rose 3
Walthamstow BAGS Julies Flight 6
20.14 Romford BAGS Sammardan Belle 3
22 Romford BAGS Chocky Girl 1
There is no staking involved just level
2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.
1320 Sandown Oscar Dragon 1.75 Betfair 6th 8/11
Here are today's (win bets)
Sorry I am a little early for this tip
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 54.38
system (30/07/07) + 20.89
13:00, Exeter, Paradi
EP 2.56 7th
15:30, Lingfield, Sgt Schultz, EP 2.04 1st
Mous Of Men, EP 2.28 nr
20:25, Wolverhampton, Desert Opal, EP 2.0
15:10 Wolverhampton, Soviet Palace EP 3.1 (*)
No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win
Normal: 13:20, Sandown, Oscar
D`Angron 6th 8/11
Pts 2007: +1.90
Top Choice: 13:20,
Sandown, Oscar D`Angron 25pts 6th 8/11
Pts 2007: +2.70
Normal: 13:40, Wolverhampton, Tiger Spice
13:40, Wolverhampton, Tiger Spice 50pts
(we are trying an experiment
with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the
staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank
on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
15.20 Exet, Rowley Hill 5th
Today: 14.50 Muss, Cash On Friday
Please Note: The
lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the
selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
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You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
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7. Today's sponsor tip
Comments for today:
Good Morning on this blustery cold
wet day. Lets hope we can brighten it up with another good result. We have
decided on 1250 Musselburgh Lost In Normandy 3.55 on Betfair. Another to watch
is 1330 Lingfield Silent Master. Speak to you later Brian & Graham
Selection 1: 1250 Musselburgh Lost In Normandy 1
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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