12th December 2006
That was a nasty incident at Wolverhampton yesterday, it
must hurt a bit on that surface.
Yesterday we started discussing the
good and bad points about the "Rule of 3" staking plan we are using with the
Greyhound selections. Just after I sent out yesterday's email, strangely this
arrived in my in-box.
Hope you had a good weekend
and your wife's a bit better.
I spent some time mucking around with
simulations for staking plans and thought I'd share the results with
The base scenario I was simulating was a strike rate of about 80%
with 10 bets a day - you can see this is based on your greyhound selections. I
got interested because I thought, "a day is just arbitrary. Why go for three
points day? Just run the three race scratch back on a continuous basis,
carrying any scratch back over from one day to the next if need be." I use a
"base stake" of 1% of Bank, plus any money needed for scratch back.
Well, here is what I found:
What do I conclude from this? Any set of
simulations which shows you turning £100 into £5000 in a year
(which some of these do) are misleading as they don't allow for the succession
of loses which will eventually happen. The alternative, which I didn't try yet,
is to take out some bank every so often, some as winnings, and some as buffer
(the buffer is really just the same as lowering the percent of bank you stake).
- Such a three race scratch scheme CAN
make you a lot of money, but eventually (and who knows when, it may be next
week, or it may be next year), you will hit a losing strike which breaks the
bank, wiping out all your winnings, and you rarely recover, unless you have a
massive reserve (up to 5 or 6 times your bank).
- Using a scheme with a zero base stake
when you are scratching back (which I read is an option in your bot) does NOT
change the conclusion - it just wins you a bit less money as long as you are
- Starting anew each day does NOT change
things. You may miss some wipe outs so they take longer to come, but a
succession of bad races in a day will eventually wipe you out. Of course you
can impose a bail out rule in your SP to stop once your back at your original
bank or something, but that means you will be starting afresh every so often.
- I tried also using "double after a loss
up to doubling twice". This scheme wins you much less than the 3 race scratch
back (only half as much or even less) as long as you are winning. However,
although it can dive quite badly in a losing streak, it does NOT break the bank
in the way the scratch back does.
- The solution to avoiding the wipe outs
with the 3 race scratch back is to use a smaller percentage of bank to start
with - say 0.5% or better still 0.2% (so you need a £1000 bank to reach
the minimum bet of £2). This avoids the wipe out, but with a 0.5% of bank
stake the winnings are very similar to those under the "three doubles after a
loss" staking plan.
But for now I am going to stick with my very conservative plan
inspired by something you wrote, that is just increase your bank by 1% a day. I
go for one point a day with your greyhound selections, with a base stake of 1%
of bank. This looks very promising so far, though I have insufficient data thus
to to do sound simulations.
Thanks Howard for
a great email.
I love receiving emails like these because it proves that
as readers you are thinking of the consequences of betting with the systems we
Howard's points are valid and what I would like to do over
the coming days is address each one in turn, with my own thoughts,
There is one thing to remember though and that this is, with betting
and there are always risks.
There is a saying in financial markets the
"greater the risk the bigger the return" and we are in one of the riskiest
businesses going, so if you don't plan then you could be in trouble (don't
I think that you will agree that I have
always said that I feel the best way to make money from betting is to go for a
small consistent amount everyday, that you can gradually build up as your bank
increases, in fact Howard backs this up in the last paragraph of his
It has always seemed to me that the longer you expose yourself to
the market the greater chance you have of exposing yourself to the type of
losing streak that Howard mentions.
Don't forget "The greater the risk
the bigger the return" but remember the flip side to this. "The greater the
risk the greater the chance of losing it all".
Tomorrow we will look at
the staking plan we are using with the greyhound system and see if we can asses
the risk and the potential return.
2. Guest Selection - started
These are lay test selections from Thomas.
NO BET if
odds above 9.00 at Betfair
Monday's (11 Dec 2006)
Plum 1445 -
Monsieur Georges - 2nd - SP 12/1 - Betfair 18.0 - no bet
Plum 1520 - Safin
- 7th - SP 6/1 - Betfair 7.6 - won
Here are today's (12 Dec 2006)
Folk 1240 - Zabeel Palace
Sout 1300 - Ames Souer
Folk 1340 - Aqua
Folk 1410 - Lescer's Lad
Thomas is recording all Betfair
prices 30 sec before the off.
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started
This is an
Exchange only place system you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9.
Points since we started + 6.47.
Classic Dream, EP 2.14 (3 places) 1st
13.45 Plumpton, Ibberton, EP 2.34 (3
14.15 Plumpton, Precious Bane, EP 2.32 (3 places) 6th
Wolverhampton, Wibbadune,, EP 3.65 (2 places) 3rd
Gaelic Princess, EP 2.18 (3 places) 3rd
A slight loss yesterday but still
13.50 Sedgefield, Canada Street, EP 2.52 (3
14.10 Folkstone, Spider Boy, EP 2.30 (3 places)
Sedgefield, Ela Re, EP 2.84 (3 places)
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
15:10, Wolverhampton, Happy As
Larry 2nd 8/13d
15:00, Southwell, Bowl Of Cherries
can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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6. "Best Lay of the
Day" - Lay
Betting System Bet
13:55 Ayr, Duke Orsino 6th
Today: 14:40 Folkestone Superrollercoaster
Superrollercoaster scores 3 on the V4 Jump system which is actually quite low,
so this selections does have some risks. Note also that it is a selections in
Johns (10) win tip. My own opinion is it is a good lay but as you kow, this
selections does lose from time to time.
Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one
of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Authors comments for today:
selection was ahead of Trading Trouble last time out but has nearly a stone
more to carry around so I expect the roles to be reversed.
1: Ayr, 13:55, DUKE ORSINO
We use 1% of our bank.
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System
After playing around with selections I have
decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I
have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect
there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that
will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to
record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are
from the original and tighter system.
You can see all the results since the
14th (when I introduced the latest selection method)
here. I am now using what I call the "rule of 3", this means
we go for 3 wins and use a 3 race scratch back to get back any
Sheffield BAGS, 11.11, Emmets Yankee, Trap 5 3rd
Sheffield BAGS, 11.28, Oi Zuki, Trap 1 2nd 5/1
13.12, Russanda Ria, Trap 2(*) 5th 7/2
Sheffield BAGS, 13.27, Magna Mia,
Trap 3 2nd 5/4
Swindon BAGS, 13.33, Coleview Sherry, Trap 5 1st 3/1
Sheffield BAGS, 13.44, Maggies Flyer, Trap 5(*) 1st 5/2
13.51, Woodman Knacka, Trap 6 2nd 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.08, Elderberry Figo,
Trap 2 2nd 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.27, Falkners Bluey, Trap 6 4th 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.47, Borna Fence, Trap 3 4th 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 15.28,
Breeze Hill Juli, Trap 3 2nd 7/2
Monmore BAGS, 15.48, Mosi Oa Tunya, Trap
1(*) 6th 6/1
Monmore BAGS, 16.08, Lift Up Teddy, Trap 1 3rd 7/1
BAGS, 16.27, Shelbourne Rich, Trap 1 3rd 5/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.07, Kilpipe
Whisper, Trap 5 6th 33/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.27, Corleones Flash, Trap 1 2nd
Monmore BAGS, 17.44, Packa Skips, Trap 1 3rd 10/1
17.58, Buzzin Daisy, Trap 1 6th 3/1
You can see(click Here) that the "Rule of 3" worked fine again on
Click Here to see all prices.
Here are today's.
Nottingham BAGS, 13.04, Charlottespaving, Trap 3
Oxford BAGS, 13.27, Oaks
Angel, Trap 3
Oxford BAGS, 13.44, Staceys Marnie, Trap 2
BAGS, 13.51, Tally Ho View, Trap 5
Crayford BAGS, 14.47, Winning Frisby,
Sunderland BAGS, 14.57, Keelogue Lass, Trap 3
15.38, Tornaroy Tart, Trap 3
Crayford BAGS, 17.27, Fawkham Kid, Trap 4
Crayford BAGS, 17.58, Black Toffee, Trap 2
Sunderland BAGS, 18.18, Hollin
Native, Trap 2 (*)
Only 10 selections today, which is the lowest number we
have had since we started testing. My thoughts are that we go for slightly less
profit of 2pts (4.0). Let me know what you think.
I set the
Horse bot price range from 1 -7.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections
This is a win system (test) that me and a friend
have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every
morning so although we created the system together he is the one really
Click Here to see the results so far.
13.35 Wolverhampton, Scarlett Heart 2nd 13/8 /Mujart
Today. 12.50 Sedgefield, Kilty Storm/Noir Et Vert
50/50 if you can make profit whatever the outcome. I am using 1pt on each
10. New - Win Selections started
This is a new win system that John from
Luv2Lose has asked me to
show you. He expects the price to drop all the way to the off with these and
the idea is to get the best price above odds-on as you can. The verdict is
still out on whether to take selections that are below evens.
Yesterday, Prices taken at 8.30am
Ayr 12.20 THE ABBOTS HABIT
1.94 1st 4/7
Plumpton 14.15 ZIMBABWE 3.00 1st 2/1
FLYINGIT 3.7 3rd 2/1
Another 2 wins yesterday we are nearly back in
Today: Exchange Prices taken at 8.39 am
KINGS SIGNAL EP 2.86
Folkestone 14.40 SUPERROLLERCOASTER EP 3.6
Folkestone 15.10 EVILITH FOREST EP 3.25
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Have a good days racing.
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