How to profit from horse racing systems
Luck only plays a small part!
How do I start making REAL money from betting on the horses?
Step 1 Find a banking and staking sytem that works Step 2 Get a system that will give you the confidence Join our Horse Racing news letter
  Home Directory Odds Checker  

12th December 2006

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

That was a nasty incident at Wolverhampton yesterday, it must hurt a bit on that surface.

Yesterday we started discussing the good and bad points about the "Rule of 3" staking plan we are using with the Greyhound selections. Just after I sent out yesterday's email, strangely this arrived in my in-box.

Hi Malcolm

Hope you had a good weekend and your wife's a bit better.

I spent some time mucking around with simulations for staking plans and thought I'd share the results with you.

The base scenario I was simulating was a strike rate of about 80% with 10 bets a day - you can see this is based on your greyhound selections. I got interested because I thought, "a day is just arbitrary. Why go for three points day? Just run the three race scratch back on a continuous basis, carrying any scratch back over from one day to the next if need be." I use a "base stake" of 1% of Bank, plus any money needed for scratch back.

Well, here is what I found:
  1. Such a three race scratch scheme CAN make you a lot of money, but eventually (and who knows when, it may be next week, or it may be next year), you will hit a losing strike which breaks the bank, wiping out all your winnings, and you rarely recover, unless you have a massive reserve (up to 5 or 6 times your bank).
  2. Using a scheme with a zero base stake when you are scratching back (which I read is an option in your bot) does NOT change the conclusion - it just wins you a bit less money as long as you are winning.
  3. Starting anew each day does NOT change things. You may miss some wipe outs so they take longer to come, but a succession of bad races in a day will eventually wipe you out. Of course you can impose a bail out rule in your SP to stop once your back at your original bank or something, but that means you will be starting afresh every so often.
  4. I tried also using "double after a loss up to doubling twice". This scheme wins you much less than the 3 race scratch back (only half as much or even less) as long as you are winning. However, although it can dive quite badly in a losing streak, it does NOT break the bank in the way the scratch back does.
  5. The solution to avoiding the wipe outs with the 3 race scratch back is to use a smaller percentage of bank to start with - say 0.5% or better still 0.2% (so you need a £1000 bank to reach the minimum bet of £2). This avoids the wipe out, but with a 0.5% of bank stake the winnings are very similar to those under the "three doubles after a loss" staking plan.
What do I conclude from this? Any set of simulations which shows you turning £100 into £5000 in a year (which some of these do) are misleading as they don't allow for the succession of loses which will eventually happen. The alternative, which I didn't try yet, is to take out some bank every so often, some as winnings, and some as buffer (the buffer is really just the same as lowering the percent of bank you stake).

But for now I am going to stick with my very conservative plan inspired by something you wrote, that is just increase your bank by 1% a day. I go for one point a day with your greyhound selections, with a base stake of 1% of bank. This looks very promising so far, though I have insufficient data thus to to do sound simulations.


Thanks Howard for a great email.

I love receiving emails like these because it proves that as readers you are thinking of the consequences of betting with the systems we are testing.

Howard's points are valid and what I would like to do over the coming days is address each one in turn, with my own thoughts, .

There is one thing to remember though and that this is, with betting and there are always risks.

There is a saying in financial markets the "greater the risk the bigger the return" and we are in one of the riskiest businesses going, so if you don't plan then you could be in trouble (don't forget the deadly sins).

I think that you will agree that I have always said that I feel the best way to make money from betting is to go for a small consistent amount everyday, that you can gradually build up as your bank increases, in fact Howard backs this up in the last paragraph of his email.

It has always seemed to me that the longer you expose yourself to the market the greater chance you have of exposing yourself to the type of losing streak that Howard mentions.

Don't forget "The greater the risk the bigger the return" but remember the flip side to this. "The greater the risk the greater the chance of losing it all".

Tomorrow we will look at the staking plan we are using with the greyhound system and see if we can asses the risk and the potential return.

2. Guest Selection - started 23-10-2006
These are lay test selections from Thomas.
NO BET if odds above 9.00 at Betfair

Monday's (11 Dec 2006)
Plum 1445 - Monsieur Georges - 2nd - SP 12/1 - Betfair 18.0 - no bet
Plum 1520 - Safin - 7th - SP 6/1 - Betfair 7.6 - won

Here are today's (12 Dec 2006)
Folk 1240 - Zabeel Palace
Sout 1300 - Ames Souer
Folk 1340 - Aqua Pura
Folk 1410 - Lescer's Lad

Thomas is recording all Betfair prices 30 sec before the off.

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is an Betting Exchange only place system you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9.
Points since we started + 6.47.

12.40 Plumpton, Classic Dream, EP 2.14 (3 places) 1st
13.45 Plumpton, Ibberton, EP 2.34 (3 places) 5th
14.15 Plumpton, Precious Bane, EP 2.32 (3 places) 6th
13.35 Wolverhampton, Wibbadune,, EP 3.65 (2 places) 3rd
15.10 Wolverhampton, Gaelic Princess, EP 2.18 (3 places) 3rd
A slight loss yesterday but still two winners.

13.50 Sedgefield, Canada Street, EP 2.52 (3 places)
14.10 Folkstone, Spider Boy, EP 2.30 (3 places)
14.50 Sedgefield, Ela Re, EP 2.84 (3 places)

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
15:10, Wolverhampton, Happy As Larry 2nd 8/13d

15:00, Southwell, Bowl Of Cherries

You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Turn your lay betting system into winning systems with Roy's easy learn low risk Amazing staking plans.

Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
13:55 Ayr, Duke Orsino 6th 6/1

Today: 14:40 Folkestone Superrollercoaster
Please Note: Superrollercoaster scores 3 on the V4 Jump system which is actually quite low, so this selections does have some risks. Note also that it is a selections in Johns (10) win tip. My own opinion is it is a good lay but as you kow, this selections does lose from time to time.

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

Authors comments for today:
The selection was ahead of Trading Trouble last time out but has nearly a stone more to carry around so I expect the roles to be reversed.

Selection 1: Ayr, 13:55, DUKE ORSINO

We use 1% of our bank.


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

After playing around with selections I have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are from the original and tighter system.
You can see all the results since the 14th (when I introduced the latest selection method) here. I am now using what I call the "rule of 3", this means we go for 3 wins and use a 3 race scratch back to get back any losses.

Sheffield BAGS, 11.11, Emmets Yankee, Trap 5 3rd 4/1
Sheffield BAGS, 11.28, Oi Zuki, Trap 1 2nd 5/1
Sheffield BAGS, 13.12, Russanda Ria, Trap 2(*) 5th 7/2
Sheffield BAGS, 13.27, Magna Mia, Trap 3 2nd 5/4
Swindon BAGS, 13.33, Coleview Sherry, Trap 5 1st 3/1
Sheffield BAGS, 13.44, Maggies Flyer, Trap 5(*) 1st 5/2
Swindon BAGS, 13.51, Woodman Knacka, Trap 6 2nd 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.08, Elderberry Figo, Trap 2 2nd 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.27, Falkners Bluey, Trap 6 4th 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.47, Borna Fence, Trap 3 4th 3/1
Monmore BAGS, 15.28, Breeze Hill Juli, Trap 3 2nd 7/2
Monmore BAGS, 15.48, Mosi Oa Tunya, Trap 1(*) 6th 6/1
Monmore BAGS, 16.08, Lift Up Teddy, Trap 1 3rd 7/1
Monmore BAGS, 16.27, Shelbourne Rich, Trap 1 3rd 5/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.07, Kilpipe Whisper, Trap 5 6th 33/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.27, Corleones Flash, Trap 1 2nd 8/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.44, Packa Skips, Trap 1 3rd 10/1
Monmore BAGS, 17.58, Buzzin Daisy, Trap 1 6th 3/1

You can see(click Here) that the "Rule of 3" worked fine again on Yesterday. Click Here to see all prices.

Here are today's.
Nottingham BAGS, 13.04, Charlottespaving, Trap 3
Oxford BAGS, 13.27, Oaks Angel, Trap 3
Oxford BAGS, 13.44, Staceys Marnie, Trap 2
Nottingham BAGS, 13.51, Tally Ho View, Trap 5
Crayford BAGS, 14.47, Winning Frisby, Trap 2
Sunderland BAGS, 14.57, Keelogue Lass, Trap 3
Sunderland BAGS, 15.38, Tornaroy Tart, Trap 3
Crayford BAGS, 17.27, Fawkham Kid, Trap 4
Crayford BAGS, 17.58, Black Toffee, Trap 2
Sunderland BAGS, 18.18, Hollin Native, Trap 2 (*)
Only 10 selections today, which is the lowest number we have had since we started testing. My thoughts are that we go for slightly less profit of 2pts (4.0). Let me know what you think.

I set the Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.

9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections started 13/11/2006

This is a win system (test) that me and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one really refining it. Click Here to see the results so far.

Points + 3.56

13.35 Wolverhampton, Scarlett Heart 2nd 13/8 /Mujart 4th 11/10

Today. 12.50 Sedgefield, Kilty Storm/Noir Et Vert

Use 50/50 if you can make profit whatever the outcome. I am using 1pt on each selection.

10. New - Win Selections started 07/11/2006

This is a new win system that John from Luv2Lose has asked me to show you. He expects the price to drop all the way to the off with these and the idea is to get the best price above odds-on as you can. The verdict is still out on whether to take selections that are below evens.
Points: -0.16

Yesterday, Prices taken at 8.30am
Ayr 12.20 THE ABBOTS HABIT 1.94 1st 4/7
Plumpton 14.15 ZIMBABWE 3.00 1st 2/1
Wolverhampton 15.40 FLYINGIT 3.7 3rd 2/1
Another 2 wins yesterday we are nearly back in profit.

Today: Exchange Prices taken at 8.39 am
Folkestone 12.40 KINGS SIGNAL EP 2.86
Folkestone 14.40 SUPERROLLERCOASTER EP 3.6
Folkestone 15.10 EVILITH FOREST EP 3.25

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

We make every effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information provided.

This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

You can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
Search for other horse racing systems
If you are not satisfied with you what you have found here then why not do a full search for Horse Racing Systems.

Click Here to search.

Search for other betting systems
If you are interested in all sorts of gambling systems then you may wish to search for other products.

Click Here to search.

© Copyright 2002 - 2010 Bluebell Data, & horse racing systems uk LLC - all rights reserved
Please note: Gambling is risky, we can not be held responsible for how you act upon the information provided at this site.

My Daily Tips


Betting Tools