Another good day on the Guest
back and lay selections yesterday with both winning again.
I think I am going to break my
Saturday rule with these two (I hope I don't regret that one) and also bet on
It's quite interesting because
at the moment I am running 3 systems on one test bank, which I don't normally
do, but I want to play around with some ideas based on the profit over all 3
I am at the moment doing the two
guest selections using £5 liability on each and I am doing really small
stakes with the New Greyhound Lay system, which from today, I am going to start
Cashmaster (I wrote an excel spreadsheet to work with GHB,
but you will have to ask Graham at
cashmaster for it, because it is his staking plan) staking
plan with but I am going to stop at a profit of 3 times my stake, because it is
What I want to work out is how
to change the stake on each selection everytime the bank increases, which at
the moment is every day!
Yesterday my bank increased by
3.36 over the 3 systems, ok I know this isn't much at the moment but it does
mean I could take a % of this profit and increase my stakes on all 3 systems or
I could choose a % of the bank for each selection and just re calculate this
If you take the back and lay
horse racing selections then I am actually using over 10% of the bank on each,
which is far higher than I normally would. But as this is a test I am being
less lenient on myself than I normally would. What I think I am going to do
though is keep these two at £5 until I have a bank of £50 then I
will change to 10% of the bank for my liability on each selection, dropping
this back down to £5 if the bank should drop below £50
The greyhound selections are a
little trickier because the
Cashmaster staking system can get a little aggressive so 3
losers in a row could get expensive but at the same time I want to keep going
until I get 3 losers so I may use a stupidly low figure for staking of say 0.2%
of my bank. I know this sounds a low but we are also going for 3 x our stake
profit so we should be contributing 0.5% or more to the bank every day.
Anyway I will try this for a
week and see what happens.
If you are a subscriber to
GHB I am going to
start putting the session file up for you (mon to fri)
The settings in this session
file are odds 1 to 6.00 and 0.10 stake so you may want to use your own stake
settings, which you should do anyway because I could make a mistake!
We have had a lot of request for
further information about the back/lay4profit selections but we just want to
test them for a couple of more weeks before we decide what to do with them.
Don't forget to sign up so you
get the Saturday selections
Have a great
weekend. Laying Longshots
Darren Power is the Editor of the
I hear from a lot of people who lay big
outsiders in the Betfair horse racing markets at ridiculous prices. They tell
me how they never win and that it's easy money. Generally these gamblers think
that the outcome is so unlikely that they are prepared to risk a large
proportion of their betting bank on each bet.
After the initial
bullishness usually one of two things happen.
They either disappear to
never be heard from again or the ones that are more committed come back to tell
me how they learned their lesson.
The lesson is that if you are not
striking a value bet you will lose in the long run and if you are laying at
100.0 on a 34.0 chance then sooner or later you will lay a winner and at those
prices the unprepared will lose their bank.
I read a little factoid
the other day which I thought illustrated this well.
Back in 1962 a
guy called into the head quarters of William Hill and asked for odds on a human
being walking on the surface of the moon before 1970.
He was quoted
1,000/1 and placed a £10 bet which was more than a weeks wages. The rest
as they say is history.
The lesson is that 1,000/1 shots can win and
that you should always have the value on your side and have a bank that will
cope with a losing bet even when you think its impossible to lose.
Darren Power is the Editor of
the Betting School Insiders Report which is dedicated to helping you to profit
from your betting. You can register for a free sample copy of the report at
New Greyhound Lay system I had come up with.
some thought I think that the only way to run this system is as a "Stop in
Profit". I am going to keep the maximum odds set to 6.00 and I am going to be a
little naughty and add in a lay ladder staking plan.
If you are a subscriber
to GHB I am going to
start putting the session file up for you (mon to fri)
settings in this session file are odds 1 to 6.00 and 0.10 stake so you may want
to use your own stake settings, which you should do anyway because I could make
Sund, Rainham Lady
13:33, Sund, Jubilee Ace,
13:44, Sheff, Locnamon
13:51, Sund, Twilight Chief
14:18, Crayfd, Stisted Leeds
Romfd, Baby Bucket
15:28, Romfd, Pretty Miss
16:57, Crayfd, Angel
17:17, Crayfd, Too Much Lolly
17:56, Romfd, Classy
19:58, Newc, Ludworth Tucker
20:22, Sittb, Ascot Ted
Sittb, Tommys Legend
I started the selections late
yesterday and then forgot to get a screenshot. I started at about 14.27 had 2
losers and then won and stopped on the next win. Not sure what happened to
11:19, HGrn, Lagganmore
11:42, Wstow, Granary Girl
13:19, HGrn, King Speaker
Monm, Elderberry Nemo
15:48, Swin, Tropical Fantasy
16:18, Monm, Mineola Nike, L
16:57, Monm, Tyrur
16:57, Monm, Ninja Jamie
16:57, Monm, Marbeck Wonder
Monm, Pond Gallileo
17:22, Swin, Honey Pearl
17:22, Swin, Coran
17:33, Monm, Terrydrum Circle
17:56, Swin, Flying Back
18:18, Monm, Rest De Best
19:06, Nott, Corleones Spark
20:22, Nott, Forlovenotmoney
21:07, Nott, Ballyea
22:22, Nott, Hansom Commander
22:23, Sheff, Lisnakill Franny
Please remember this is a new test (well not that new!) and there are
no rules yet, in fact the only rule I can think of is maybe miss races where
there are two selections.
Guest Selection (back 4
This is a new back test.
am going to show dutching with a £5 stake split between the two bets
using my dutch calculator .
am not sure about NR's, the favourite does tend to win most of the time, with
the second favourite about a 3rd of the time so it could be worth backing the
the second if the favourite is a NR. If the second favourite is a NR then you
can take the next runner in the betting.
Double Mead EP 2.00 2nd 13/8
Lord Alfred EP 8.2 1st 10/3
There was a NR is this race but
I didn't get a reduction in price so I won £3.04 on a £5.00
Mutual Friend EP 2.34
Saviour Sand EP
If either win today I should get another £2.5 profit.
New Lay Test (lay 4 Profit)
am just taking £5.00 and dividing it by the odds to get my stake.
2.50 Yar: Silver
Thatch EP 17.00 7th 14/1
Anticipating EP 5.8
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Comments for today: 2 horses today ORMELLO 1945 Aintree and OH
SO SAUCY 2115 Chepstow both 1/2 a point. Good Luck Graham and Brian
Selection 1: 1945 Aintree Ormello
Selection 2: 2115 Chepstow Oh So
Best Lay of the
15.35 Hayd, Rash Judgement 6th 3/1
15.5 Sand, Mexican Venture
Please Note: The lay betting system is
actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
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Place System: Started
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 62.40
system (30/07/07) +23.95
14:30, Haydock, Kings House
14:50, Yarmouth, Debbys Boy EP 3.55 2nd
15:50, Newbury, Rosa
Grace EP 2.22 (*) 1st
17:15, Haydock, Bajan Parkes EP 2.22 8th
Fontwell, Comeintothespace EP 2.82 (*) 8th
19:30, Fontwell, Contra Mundum EP
2.82 (*) 4th
20:30, Fontwell, Good Old Dayss EP 3.2 (*) 5th
Fontwell, Allez Melina EP 4.00 (*) 7th
15:25, York, Four
Miracles EP 2.34
17:15, Market, Galapagos Islands EP 2.08
Chepstow, Hay Fever EP 2.22 (*)
19:35, Chepstow, Purely By Chance EP 2.4
21:15, Chepstow, Finsbury EP 2.8s
(*) No bet under new system
Started 13/12/2007. We orginally tested this as a "lay" system
but I felt the results were better suited to a "Back" system and so that is how
we are now testing it.
£-11.86(after 5% commision) Started 25/01/2008
staking plan similar to
CashMaster, started 11/3/2008 after a win on the 10/3/2008.
Bank(staking plan) + £58.94 (staking running loss 3.07
14:40, Newb, Ghaidaa EP 1.73 (no staking price is under
2.00) 1st 1/2
17:05, York, Tcherina
Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing laying
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
If you need help about anything please go to my
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
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this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
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