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13th December 2006

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

Well you can not say I didn't warn you about the "Best lay of the Day" yesterday. I was suprised by the win, but you can not take it away from him, it was a good ride. I am afraid there is no selection today, we had one possible, but the price is to high this morning.

Carrying on from yesterday.

After studying the results of the greyhound system selections for a little while (probably not long enough) I started to see a pattern within the price range we had picked to use.

To be trueful I only picked the price range we are using because at the lower price of 6.00, we had a lot less selections where as 7.00 we seemed to get enough. Of course we could find at 8.0, 9.0 or above we get even more selections and more winners, but we have seen a couple of losers over the 7.00, so it remains to been seen if the extra risk is worth it.

If we took 7.00 as our maximum bet range lets look at how the "rule of 3" staking plan works, I will use 2.00 as our base stake because all the screen shots show this stake (+ commission).

Our first bet is:
2.11 x (7-1) = liability of 12.66 which we lose
So using the "rule of 3" our next bet goes like this.

12.66 / 3 = 4.22 + 2.00 (our normal stake) = 6.22 x 5% (roughly commision) = 6.53
Our liability will be 6.53 x (7-1) = 39.18 which we lose.
So using the "rule of 3" our next bet goes like this.

Losses so far 51.84.
51.84 / 3 = 17.28 + 2.00 (our normal stake) = 19.28 x 5% = 20.24.
Our liability will be 20.24 x (7-1) = 121.46

So if we lose we would have lost 121.46 which we are risking just to win 2.00 remember.

I think by now you can see how it works and the risks involved, but I must point out a couple of things that have made it worse.

1. It is very unlikely we would have 3 losers in a row at 7.00 and most of our losses come from a lot cheeper lays than that.

2. I have included commision in each scenario, this adds to the expense when using a staking plan and could be ignored.

3. I have added our normal stake to each bet, this could be lowered or left out while staking, but it would take longer to make your profit.

In Howards email he points out sooner or later you will hit a lossing streak like above that wipes out your bank.

Well we probably can not avoid the lossing streak but I hope we can find ways of avoiding a total wipeout. So what can we do to try to avoid this from happening?

I hope that the Money you are using for betting is risk money, it certainly shouldn't be coming out of your house keeping.

So lets start with a scenario where you have a bank of 200.00 and you are going to stake 2.00.

Our main question has got to be how much of our bank are we going to risk before we stop and decide to call it a day?

My own feelings are that it should be enough to cover 3 loses, which by the example above is 121.46. But I would be very surprised if we had 3 losers in a row at 7.00. So looking at the past selections we have lost on, I think our average is closer to 4.50 so I think we should stop at around 60.00.

Well we can at least start with that figure and see what happens.

Up to yesterday (when I didn't win or lose anything. click here) I had won 10 days in a row and about £60.00. It is actually better than this as I have been running the bot on Saturdays as well, but we wont include them.

So now I have covered my £60 risk, what should should I do next?

I have a hospital appointment with my wife this morning so we will carry on with this tomorrow.

2. Guest Selection - started 23-10-2006
These are lay test selections from Thomas.
NO BET if odds above 9.00 at Betfair

Tuesday's (12 Dec 2006)
Folk 1240 - Zabeel Palace - 7th - SP 20/1 - Betfair 42.0 - no bet
Sout 1300 - Ames Souer - 8th - SP 9/1 - Betfair 17.5 - no bet
Folk 1340 - Aqua Pura - 1st - SP 11/4 (fav) - Betfair 4.1 - lost
Folk 1410 - Lescer's Lad - 4th - SP 7/1 - Betfair 9.0 - won

Here are today's (13 Dec 2006)
Newb 1355 - Viciana
Ling 1450 - Shava
Wolv 1820 - Art Historian

Thomas is recording all Betfair prices 30 sec before the off.

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9.
Points since we started + 9.83

13.50 Sedgefield, Canada Street, EP 2.52 (3 places) 2nd
14.10 Folkstone, Spider Boy, EP 2.30 (3 places) NR
14.50 Sedgefield, Ela Re, EP 2.84 (3 places) 3rd.

No Selections today.

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
15:00, Southwell, Bowl Of Cherries NR

12:50 Newbury, Hot 'N' Holy

You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
"Last Winter, This London Man Caned The Bookies For £14,011 Profit, At Just £20 Stakes!" And this year he's already making it hurt even more!!

Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
14:40 Folkestone Superrollercoaster 1st 3/1

Today: No Selection today

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Nags to Riches

Normal Selection
14:50 Lingfield , Firework

New Selection
13:55 Newbury , Olival

We use 1% of our bank and use the Lay Ladder to get back any losses, which doesn't always work with these higher priced selections.

Nags to Riches

8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

After playing around with selections I have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are from the original and tighter system.
You can see all the results since the 14th (when I introduced the latest selection method) here. I am now using what I call the "rule of 3", this means we go for 3 wins and use a 3 race scratch back to get back any losses.

Nottingham BAGS, 13.04, Charlottespaving, Trap 3 1st 9/2
Oxford BAGS, 13.27, Oaks Angel, Trap 3 5th 2/1
Oxford BAGS, 13.44, Staceys Marnie, Trap 2 2nd 5/1
Nottingham BAGS, 13.51, Tally Ho View, Trap 5 5th 7/2
Crayford BAGS, 14.47, Winning Frisby, Trap 2 5th 5/1
Sunderland BAGS, 14.57, Keelogue Lass, Trap 3 1st 7/4
Sunderland BAGS, 15.38, Tornaroy Tart, Trap 3 1st 2/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.27, Fawkham Kid, Trap 4 3rd 3/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.58, Black Toffee, Trap 2 3rd 7/2
Sunderland BAGS, 18.18, Hollin Native, Trap 2 (*) 2nd 6/4

Well as you can see(click Here) the "Rule of 3" worked fine again yesterday but while messing about with the settings during testing I left ticked " Leave out normal stake while staking" so I won back all my loses but didn't make any further gains because we ran out of races. I am testing a new version of the bot that now includes the orginal Greyhound bot.
Click Here to see new options screenshot.

Here are today's.
Hall Green BAGS, 11.19, Greenview Clover, Trap 3
Brough Park BAGS, 11.28, Morton Chablis, Trap 2
Hall Green BAGS, 12.04, Rogflo, Trap 4
Brough Park BAGS, 12.27, Jack Spot, Trap 2
Brough Park BAGS, 13.44, Canny Hornet, Trap 4
Hall Green BAGS, 13.51, Tullymurry Wish, Trap 4
Brough Park BAGS, 14.03, Solway Admiral, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 14.08, Lady Trevali, Trap 1
Perry Barr BAGS, 14.37, Tomorrows Press, Trap 4
Perry Barr BAGS, 14.57, Tanhill Tom, Trap 6
Hove BAGS, 15.28, Casino Valentine, Trap 6(*)
Hove BAGS, 15.48, Downland Georgie, Trap 3(*)
Perry Barr BAGS, 15.58, Clash Elsie, Trap 5
Hove BAGS, 16.08, Fizzy Nectar, Trap 4
Hove BAGS, 16.27, Westmead Angel, Trap 6
Perry Barr BAGS, 16.37, Three Cliffs, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 16.48, Blakes Monarch, Trap 6
Perry Barr BAGS, 16.57, Supreme Gwen, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 17.07, Toms Sophie, Trap 2(*)
Hove BAGS, 17.44, Coombe Tart, Trap 2(*)
Back up to 20 today.

I set the Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.

9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections started 13/11/2006

This is a win system (test) that me and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one really refining it. Click Here to see the results so far.

Points + 3.56

12.50 Sedgefield, Kilty Storm 1st 4/7 / Noir Et Vert 2nd 5/2

Today. 13.10 Lingfield, Bowl of Cherries/Green Pirate

Use 50/50 if you can make profit whatever the outcome. I am using 1pt on each selection.

10. New - Win Selections started 07/11/2006

This is a new win system that John from Luv2Lose has asked me to show you. He expects the price to drop all the way to the off with these and the idea is to get the best price above odds-on as you can. The verdict is still out on whether to take selections that are below evens.
Points: +2.95

Yesterday: Exchange Prices taken at 8.39 am
Folkestone 12.40 KINGS SIGNAL EP 2.86 2nd 13/8
Folkestone 14.40 SUPERROLLERCOASTER EP 3.6 1st 4/7
Folkestone 15.10 EVILITH FOREST EP 3.25 1st 15/8
Another 2 wins yesterday put us right back in profit.

Today: Exchange Prices taken at 8.35 am

Newbury 12.50 HOT 'N' HOLY EP 2.66
Lingfield 14.15 ARTZOLA EP 2.42

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Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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