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16th January 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

It was a shame Folkstone was abandoned yesterday we had quite a few selections from there.

Yesterday I was talking about a couple of ideas that I thought could be used with Adrian's tips. Here is his reply.

"Good morning and a very warm welcome to you all. A bit of a scrappy old day, with Folkestone called off not through rain, but hurricane winds.

Most important was the withdrawal of Sir Marks horse Hora, in our naps race the plan was to take the nap on with the sincere hope of beating us, that would have giving us a respectable price, but it left us with a winner 1/6, damned rubbish, but it still left us with four winners 1 u/p 1 n/r, 5 out of 6.

Going back to Malcolms statement yesterday morning about placed horses, I have done some stats information December and January to date, bearing in mind u/p horse, fallers,with drawn.

So in December we issued 159 back bets, of these 33 were u/p, 126 were either 1st 2nd 3rd making a strike rate of 80%.

In January to date with all the adverse weather etc, we advised to date 83 selections of which 21 were u/p and 62 were either 1st 2nd or 3rd, giving a strike rate of 75%.

Look at what the potential earnings with low low loosing rate, if you had A PLACE BET and matched it to WIN with 70 80% of projected winnings of place return, also trade each one, the multiplications on how and what you do is your choice, but do what you are comfortable and confident with."

Thanks Adrian.

Darren from the betting school.

One of the best things about running a club like the Betting School Insiders Club is that I get to see hundreds of ideas for systems every month.

Todays article is about one of those ideas which was written by Tony Gibson ( who writes our regular Systems Corner column.

Basically what Tony is looking into is the past trend for favourites winning a particular race and then backing or laying the favourite in this years running if the past indicates that this might be favourable.

Below are two example trends for two handicaps run at the same course.

Example 1/ 1000310010

Example 2/ 1111021100

In the first example the favourite won three of the ten races run and in the second the favourite won six of the ten races run.

What of our strategy? Well if favourites win around a third of all races run then in Example 1 you would think the favourite is overdue a success and maybe the strategy would be to back the favourite thinking that it's going to uphold the trend of 30% winning favourites?

I tend to believe that basically history is showing us that these type of races are the ones that favourites have difficulty winning and you are probably better off laying the favourite rather than backing it.

The opposite must apply then to Example 2 the favourite having won six out of the last ten runnings is bucking the trend by over 100% and we should back the favourites to continue to do this.

Tony goes into some detail in this months report on his exact rules and the recent performance of this method. I hope the above is enough to inspire you to look into this aspect of racing trends.

Guest Adrian's Expected Winners
Results December.

If there are no selections here then check this page.
I will update it as soon as I get the selections. Yesterdays results are also on that above page.

Here are today's.
Back Only
Lingfield 1.45 Moon Bound
Newcastle 2.05 Negus De Beaumont
Lingfield 2.50 Baylini
Newcastle 3.45 Queen Poline
Kempton 6.50 King Of Dixie
Kempton 8.20 Smokey Rye

Newcastle 1.30 Tartan Snow

Lingfield 1.10 Nawamees

LAY (betfair prices @ 10am)
Newcastle 2.05 Money Trix 2.9
Lingfield 3.55 Smokin Beau 3.2
Kempton 8.20 American Art 3.3
Kempton 9.20 Wind Flow 3.5

Sorry I am early this morning will put the tips up a bit later.

Just keep an eye on them and see what you think.
Lay test system
So after 16 selections (£10 stake) our bank stands at
£0.00 (after 5% betfair commission).

Ok we are back to 0.00 after 16 selections so from today I am going to run two test, one backing and one laying. I may even use a staking plan, but I am going to have a think about that.

14:50, Folk, Najca De Thaix EP 2.16 Abandoned

14:50, Ling, Baylini EP 1.72

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing laying these selections.

2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.

1350 Folk ABRAHAM SMITH betfaie 3.7 Abandoned

Here are today's (win bets)

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 61.76
Points new system (30/07/07) + 19.81

14:40, Kempton, Micheals Boy EP 2.7 3rd
15:10, Kempton, Jomus EP 2.1 2nd

12:40, Lingfield, Majestical EP 2.76
13:00, Newcastle, Allistathebarrista EP 2.1
15:55, Lingfield, What Do You Know EP 2.14
19:20, Kempton, Jessica Wigmo EP 2.22
20:20, Kempton, Stagecoach Topaz EP 2.14
21:20, Kempton, Play Up Pompey EP 2.16

(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 14:00, Southwell, Legend Erry 1st 1/6
Pts 2007: -1.22
Top Choice:  14:00, Southwell, Legend Erry 100pts 1st 1/6
Pts 2007: -1.00
Bank =623.72

Normal: 20:20, Kempton, Smokey Rye
Top Choice: 13:45, Lingfield, Moon Bound 75pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Turn your lay betting system into winning systems with Roy's easy learn low risk Amazing staking plans.
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
 1.50 Folk, Abraham Smith Abandoned

Today: 12.30 Newc, Bleu Pois

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Luv 2 Lose

Comments for today: I have my eye on Sands Crooner to win this one at the expense of our pick who is bidding for three wins in a row.

Nap (Lay) Selection 1: Lingfield 15:55 SANDS CROONER 1Pts

Luv 2 Lose

8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

Sorry no more Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the Grey Horse bot then you can still load the session file in.

Or there are still a few copies of the system left.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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