It was a shame Folkstone was abandoned yesterday we had
quite a few selections from there.
Yesterday I was talking about a
couple of ideas that I thought could be used with Adrian's tips. Here is his
"Good morning and a very warm welcome to you all. A bit of a
scrappy old day, with Folkestone called off not through rain, but hurricane
Most important was the withdrawal of Sir Marks horse Hora, in
our naps race the plan was to take the nap on with the sincere hope of beating
us, that would have giving us a respectable price, but it left us with a winner
1/6, damned rubbish, but it still left us with four winners 1 u/p 1 n/r, 5 out
Going back to Malcolms statement yesterday morning about placed
horses, I have done some stats information December and January to date,
bearing in mind u/p horse, fallers,with drawn.
So in December we issued
159 back bets, of these 33 were u/p, 126 were either 1st 2nd 3rd making a
strike rate of 80%.
In January to date with all the adverse weather
etc, we advised to date 83 selections of which 21 were u/p and 62 were either
1st 2nd or 3rd, giving a strike rate of 75%.
Look at what the potential
earnings with low low loosing rate, if you had A PLACE BET and matched it to
WIN with 70 80% of projected winnings of place return, also trade each one, the
multiplications on how and what you do is your choice, but do what you are
comfortable and confident with."
Darren from the betting
One of the best things about running a club like the
School Insiders Club is that I get to see hundreds of ideas for systems
Todays article is about one of those ideas which was
written by Tony Gibson (bettingsystem.info) who writes our regular Systems
Basically what Tony is looking into is the past trend
for favourites winning a particular race and then backing or laying the
favourite in this years running if the past indicates that this might be
Below are two example trends for two handicaps run at the
Example 1/ 1000310010
Example 2/ 1111021100
In the first example the favourite won three of the ten races run and
in the second the favourite won six of the ten races run.
What of our
strategy? Well if favourites win around a third of all races run then in
Example 1 you would think the favourite is overdue a success and maybe the
strategy would be to back the favourite thinking that it's going to uphold the
trend of 30% winning favourites?
I tend to believe that basically
history is showing us that these type of races are the ones that favourites
have difficulty winning and you are probably better off laying the favourite
rather than backing it.
The opposite must apply then to Example 2 the
favourite having won six out of the last ten runnings is bucking the trend by
over 100% and we should back the favourites to continue to do this.
Tony goes into some detail in this months report on his exact rules and the
recent performance of this method. I hope the above is enough to inspire you to
look into this aspect of racing trends.
Adrian's Expected Winners
there are no selections here then check this page.
will update it as soon as I get the selections. Yesterdays results are also on
that above page.
Here are today's.
1.45 Moon Bound
Newcastle 2.05 Negus De Beaumont
Newcastle 3.45 Queen Poline
Kempton 6.50 King Of Dixie
8.20 Smokey Rye
Newcastle 1.30 Tartan Snow
Lingfield 1.10 Nawamees
LAY (betfair prices @
Newcastle 2.05 Money Trix 2.9
Lingfield 3.55 Smokin Beau
Kempton 8.20 American Art 3.3
Kempton 9.20 Wind Flow 3.5
I am early this morning will put the tips up a bit later.
Just keep an eye on them and
see what you think.
So after 16 selections (£10 stake) our bank stands at
£0.00 (after 5% betfair commission).
Ok we are back to 0.00 after 16
selections so from today I am going to run two test, one backing and one
laying. I may even use a staking plan, but I am going to have a think about
14:50, Folk, Najca De Thaix EP 2.16 Abandoned
14:50, Ling, Baylini EP 1.72
Remember this is just a
test and we are paper testing laying these selections.
Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips
are shortish priced but very consistent.
ABRAHAM SMITH betfaie 3.7 Abandoned
Here are today's (win bets)
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 61.76
system (30/07/07) + 19.81
14:40, Kempton, Micheals Boy
EP 2.7 3rd
15:10, Kempton, Jomus EP 2.1 2nd
Lingfield, Majestical EP 2.76
13:00, Newcastle, Allistathebarrista EP
15:55, Lingfield, What Do You Know EP 2.14
19:20, Kempton, Jessica
Wigmo EP 2.22
20:20, Kempton, Stagecoach Topaz EP 2.14
Play Up Pompey EP 2.16
(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 14:00, Southwell, Legend Erry 1st 1/6
Pts 2007: -1.22
Choice: 14:00, Southwell, Legend Erry 100pts 1st 1/6
Normal: 20:20, Kempton, Smokey
Top Choice: 13:45, Lingfield, Moon Bound 75pts
trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on
where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started
with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
1.50 Folk, Abraham Smith
Today: 12.30 Newc, Bleu Pois
Please Note: The lay
betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the
selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
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7. Today's sponsor tip
Luv 2 Lose
Comments for today: I have my eye on Sands Crooner to win this one at
the expense of our pick who is bidding for three wins in a row.
Nap (Lay) Selection 1:
Lingfield 15:55 SANDS CROONER 1Pts
Luv 2 Lose
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
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Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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