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19th September 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

3 day's...Until my holiday.

Darren From the Betting School.

I remember back in the 80's being intrigued by the Dr Z method of finding value bets.

Dr Z was a well known writer for the Daily Racing Form in the US but he was pretty much unknown in the UK until Nick Mordin discussed him in one of his early books.

What Dr Z discovered was that you could secure value bets in the place markets on the US tote.

The theory was that if you assumed that the win price just before the off represented the true chance of a horse winning. Then through some clever maths you could work out the true chance of the horse placing.

If the actual place price was better than the true chance (taking into account overround etc) then you should place a bet. Your bet would represent good value and would ensure a profit over the long term.

Nick applied this same theory to the UK tote.

Now that we are in the age of the betting exchange and place only markets the method has taken on a new life.

In this months Betting School Insiders Report we have reviewed one of the new products that help us determine which bets give us value. And later this week I will be sending out a discount offer for this product to everybody who has downloaded our free sample report which is available here:


Yesterday we touched briefly on the different types of trading on Betfair with the help of Nat at TSF e-zine descriptions.

I also mentioned that it is handy to have all types in your repertoire so that you can take advantage of different situations that arise.

But it is important that you learn each type so that you are confident enough to know which type of trade can be used.

The only way you are going to learn is by practice and I try to this on a daily basis.

Take "Scalping" this is probably the easiest type of trading and you can probably find several opportunities to do it daily, but you have to be prepared to make small profits of 1, 2 or 3 ticks.

Just in case you don't know a "Tick" is the move to the next possible price on Betfair (or other exchanges) and works like this.

If you are betting between
1.01 - 2.00 then a tick is 0.01
2.00 to 3.00 then a tick is 0.02
3.00 to 4.00 then a tick is 0.05
4.00 to 6.00 then a tick is 0.10
6.00 to 6.00 then a tick is 0.20

A classic example of scalping is to look at the graphs of the first couple of runners in a race probably 30mins before the off. If you can see a graph that has either a consistent down or up graph (click on the runners name to see this) then you could take up your position presuming it is going to continue on the same course.

So if the graph is going down then back first, if it is going up then lay first.

I use this strategy a lot but I think I succeed for 2 reasons. Firstly I make sure the graph is really going in one of the directions and don't try to fool myself it is, and secondly I only trade 3 ticks.

I can normally find 3 to 5 trades a day like this.

But of course I have far more complex scenario's and if you are interested in learning some then see TSF e-zine.

No selection for Fancy Fillies yesterday.

Don't forget if you have bought the ebook you can also sign up for their tipping service.

2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.

No Selections

Here are today's (win bets)
1820 Kempton La COLUMBINA betfair 2.14

If you are missing Shauns selections you can now get them here.

(please note that the site will be totally finished by the morning but the tips will be available mid morning in the members area.)

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 40.90
Points new system (30/07/07) + 11.87

15.30 Thirsk, Mighty Moon EP 2.78 (*) NR
16.30 Thirsk, Deserted Dane EP 2.26 6th

15.20 Yarmouth, Cool Isle, EP 2.12
15.55 Yarmouth, Gyroscope, EP 2.16
19.50 Kempton, River Deuce EP 2.06

(*) No bet under new system idea

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal:   14:40, Yarmouth, Ridge Dance 1st 4/6
Pts 2007: +11.23
Top Choice:  16:40, Yarmouth, Canadian Danehill 25pts 1st evs
Pts 2007: +1.42
Bank =774.70

Normal:  15:55, Yarmouth, Seeking The Buck
Top Choice: 15:20, Yarmouth, Dot`s Delight 25pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what you are looking for...
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
No Selection

Today:  17.05 Yarm, Officer

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

Selection 1: beverley 4.55 top dirham* 1
Selection 2: 5.15 brief goodby* 1
Selection 3: yarmouth 3.55 le soleil* 1
Selection 4: 5.05 sony parkin** 1
Selection 5: 5.35 petitp* 1
Selections 6: kempton 8.20 mae cigan* 1
Selections 7: 8.50 dudley docker* 1
Selections 8: 9.20 synonomy* 1

The rule of the 321 staking plan is subjected to the price of the horses odds on betfair or other exchanges that allow you to lay a horse.

0-to 6.0 lay 3pts
6.1 to 10/1 lay 2pts
10.1 to 20 lay 1pt


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

Sorry no more Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the Grey Horse bot then you can still load the session file in.

Or there are still a few copies of the system left.

9. Ace Naps - (Back Tip)

Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem to win a lot.
Yesterday's Selection.
No Selection

No selections today.

Please remember as always, this is a test.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

We make every effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information provided.

This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

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