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20th November 2007 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I am sorry this is really quick from me this morning. I still have a stomach bug and don't feel like writing.

I did dig out this article from Psycho though.

Why you lose money when you join a tipping service

So, you watch a tipping service for several months. You like what you see. It makes consistent profits. Finally, you decide to join. Immediately, you start to lose money.

I wish that I had £1 for every time that I'd heard this story.

So, have the tipsters been conning you and 'fixing' their results?

Are you so unlucky that you join a tipping service just in time for it to go 'tits up' (excuse my French)?

Are you doing something wrong?

Or, is there something more sinister going on?

The answer to the question is - none of the above.

Here's why I think that most people WILL lose when they join a tipping service:

I run several tipping services. For much of this year, and last, I have seen my systems slowly climb up the league table and then fall slowly down the league table. Then, they slowly climb up the league table again, only to fall down again. What I also noticed was that other tipping services do likewise. They slowly rise up the table, only to fall down the table again.

What is causing this to happen?

Well, after undertaking a lot of research, which consumed much of my time and energy, I finally came up with an answer.

Why tipster services move up and down the league table is because the strike rates of the systems are rising and then falling. No rocket science here!

OK, let's move on.

What I found was that when a system goes through a good time (i.e. the strike rate begins to climb), it will then go through a bad time (i.e. the strike rate begins to fall). What I also found was that the better the good times are, the worse the bad times will be. By way of an example, I have a system which concentrates on laying the longer-priced horses. It's best-ever period was followed by its worst-ever period.

I have analysed over 100 tipster services. Without exception, they all follow this pattern of rising and falling strike rates.

I tried to predict when each system would start to go through one of its bad periods. I failed miserably. What I found was that the rise and fall in the strike rate has nothing whatsoever to do with time. All that I could say was that, following a good time, a bad time would eventually come.

So, moving on.

Where does this get us?

Well, let's look at what human beings do.

When do they join a tipster service?

Do they join during a good period or do they join during a bad period?

Answer: They join during a good period - when the system is winning.

What's wrong with joining a system when it's winning?


After a winning period, the system will move into a losing period. The better the winning period is and the longer it lasts, the worse the losing period will be and the longer it will last.

So, you watch a tipster service. If the results are bad - you don't join. If the results are good - you join. What follows a good period? A bad one! So, you join a tipster service just in time for things to go bad. So, you lose.

When, in my opinion, should you join a tipster service?

You should join when the service has gone through a bad period and starts to show signs of recovery. Why? Because, it is at this time when the system is most likely to go through one of its good periods.

Following this method will not guarantee that you will join a tipster service that will bring you success. However, it may improve your chances of avoiding joining a tipster service at the wrong time.

Contact Author

If you have any questions or comments on the content of this article and wish to contact the author, please go to:

A reader named Gary.
These are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on paper for the moment, since it is still in testing. However results have been very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite quickly:


Gary also is not well so hasn't sent tips. It's that time of year with things going around!

There is no staking involved just level stakes. I will get Gary to send me all his results so far so that we can put them in to a web page.

2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.

So selection

Here are today's (win bets)
1340 Folk HOBBS HILL betfair 1.58

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 55.54
Points new system (30/07/07) + 20.05

14.40 Leicester, Elaala, EP-2.16 NR

13.20 Wolverhampton, Berrynarbor EP 2.34
15.20 Wolverhampton, Great Charm, EP 2.38 (*)

(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal:  15:40, Leicester, Rajeh NR
Pts 2007: +3.61
Top Choice:  15:40, Leicester, Rajeh 75pts NR
Pts 2007: - 0.47
Bank =581.45

Normal: 13:40, Folkestone, Hobbs Hill
Top Choice: 13:40, Folkestone, Hobbs Hill 75pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Turn your lay betting system into winning systems with Roy's easy learn low risk Amazing staking plans. .
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
No selection yesterday.

Today: 15.10 Folk, Proud To Present

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

Fakenham 13:00 MAD PROFESSOR


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

Sorry no more Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the Grey Horse bot then you can still load the session file in.

Or there are still a few copies of the system left.

9. Ace Naps - (Back Tip)

Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem to win a lot.

How do you reserve your copy?

Simple, send an email to me with "Reserve my copy of Ace Naps" in subject.

Clicking here should do it automatically but please make sure that "Reserve my copy of Ace Naps" is in the subject.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

We make every effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information provided.

This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

You can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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