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20th November 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

So carrying on from yesterday....

Lets first have a look at and see id we can make some observations.
We are going to look at the back side so there are two lots of results you need to look at.
The ones in the spreadsheet (pre database)

and the ones in the database.

1. All selections are 2 (evens) or above.
2. Longest losing run 9 in one month (10 continuous)
3. Longest winning run is 6

Now if we really took the time to analyse the data we could probably come up with further facts, like the average price of a selection, the average number of winners and losers and so on and although I think it always a good idea to analyse as much as you can, what you really need to know with the observations above is, can you make money?

According to the results out of 10 months (not including Nov) they have made a profit in 8. When they have lost it hasn't been by much and according to the results there have been some good winning months as well (interpretation).

Now Graham and Brian's idea is that you stop at 12pts, which is fine but although you should take on board what they are saying, the point of the excersize is to see if you can find a way of making profit that suits you from their selections.

You could argue that they get to 5 points quite easily every month, so why go for 12pts when you can get to 5pts and have the rest for the remainder of the month. You could also argue that going for 12 pts only, has left a lot of profit on the table.

There could be a case for using staking, if you can find away to get over the losing runs.

The point of the excersize is to look at the facts.

If we came from an interpretation point of view then you could start making up all sorts of scenario's in your head.

Let's look at their longest losing run of 9. If we look at the results as they are presented our interpretation is 9, but if we observe the data in it's entirety (as we should) then it is 10. Ok only 1 loser difference but you could have told yourself that the most you are likely to lose in a row is 9 bets, when the truth is if you continued betting from one month to the next, it is 10, which could have come as a big shock!

Continued tomorrow.

Don't forget about my Xmas special...

If you purchase the over the next couple of weeks I will also send you under separate cover. (Which I am removing from sale any day). (Which I haven't put back on sale since purchasing it from the author).

So you get all the above for just £39.99.

I think that's a very good offer when you consider what they all cost separately. This is a special offer to readers of this email and we will send the download instructions for the bonus systems after we have received your payment information.
And please no refunds!

Guest Selection ("Good to Lay" ) started 27/08/2008

This selection is now only available as part of The Almost Certain Nap service.

Guest Selection ("Double your chance" ) started 7/11/2008

The idea behind this selection is that you back one runner and lay the other. The lay as a much higher strike rate than the back, so we put enough on the lay to make profit even if the back loses. A split of 20/30 seems to work well. So if you bet £5 you put 2.00 on the back and 3.00 on the lay.

Rule: If the favourite is a NR (non runner) you can still bet on the lay (I still think there is a risk here) but if the lay is a NR then no bet.

3.30 Ling:
Back: Plush EP 2.16 6th eves
Lay: One Oi EP 32 2nd 9/1

3.00 Winc:
Back: Elsies Pride EP 2.72
Lay: New Perk EP 14

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

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Sponsor Tip of the day.

Sorry no sponsor today.

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

No Nap

Today: 15.20 Here, Ring Bo Ree

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.

15:10, Hexm, Fabalu EP 1.59 2nd 2/5

Today. 15:20, Hrfd, Ring Bo Ree EP 2.82

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...
Also check my blog here
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