23rd November 2007 2007
I am going to spend some time just relaxing
with the family this weekend.
Hopefully it won't rain so we can go out for a
nice long walk.
I had an email from a subscriber called Ian who sent
this after reading yesterdays email.
"You are right in not relying too
much on the strike rate alone to judge a systems profitability/success. What
you need to do is look at the strike rate in conjunction with the average odds
of the selections given.
e.g Lets say you have a lay service with a
strike rate of 75% with average odds of 2.65 (betfair), the break even strike
rate for this system is:-
(2.65 / (1+2.65)) x 100 = 72.60%, therefore
the at 75% SR, the system will be profitable. Of course both these could be a
moving target, though most laying services have a maximum lay odds limit, so
average odds will be reasonably consistent.
You can do the same with
Eg assume a system has a strike rate of 28% - with
selections averaging betfair odds of (say) 3.85, then break even is 1 /
(3.85-1) x 100 = 35%, so in this case this system would not be profitable long
Your comments would be appreciated especially on the maths. "
Thanks Ian spot on.
My point yesterday (maths aside) was to get
you to think about the consequences of just joining a service without really
considering what could happen if you immediately get into trouble.
hope you have a great weekend.
TSF e-Zine Fridays
Hi Friday time again I'm very busy at the mo with both my own
trading and working on a few improvements to the tsf e-zine. I have put
together another e-book that will be out soon, basically it's a collection of
all the strategies that have been featured in the
tsf e-zine to date,
it's quite amazing how quickly they mount up! It's free to all those that
subscribe in December.
We are working on a new pricing structure which
will allow those that just want the mag to be able to get it at an affordable
price. But for those that want a little bit more than just the e-zine,
throughout the month we are going to hold workshops via the trading room where
we will be offering a step by step guide to each strategy featured and offering
tips and tricks on how and when to use them to best effect, as well as
continued access to the private members forum and the
tsf e-zine itself. If
you would like more info on the new pricing structure or dates for the
workshops then let me know.
Now down to the real business, did anyone
notice the silver lining to the otherwise depressing Wednesday night that most
of us had? Well hopefully those that have been reading my articles here on a
Friday would have done!
25 mins into the game with Croatia leading 2-0
the price to lay the draw was 3.55. Well I wanted to see England comeback with
all the will in the world but when there's value to be had you have to get
involved!! I lumped on, very happily after all if England had managed to get
one back before half time you would hardly be looking at devastating losses if
any at all. I traded out during the half time period at a healthy 4.2, to lock
in a handsome profit! From a trade with very little potential downside, Nice
work if you can get it!! lol
The moral of the story well it's a simple
one when ever England or anything English is involved there's a trade to be
had. I stress once again look out for those over-reactions coz there's gold in
them there hills.
May be worth keeping an eye on the next England
Manager market as well, I'm not sure but I get the impression that there isn't
going to be any rush, so there might be a trade in there somewhere if I see one
I'll let you know. Personally I would like to see either Mourinho or Martin
O'neil get the job, but I wont be holding my breath!
Sorry it's brief
this week; perhaps I'll post something beautiful next week, until then,
Keep it Green
reader named Gary.
These are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on
paper for the moment, since it is still in testing. However results have been
very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite
23/11/2007, 11.19, Hall Green BAGS, Natural
23/11/2007, 11.34, Hall Green BAGS, Lacken Black, 6
11.42, Walthamstow BAGS, Liscahane Kia, 4
23/11/2007, 11.57, Walthamstow
BAGS, Granary Girl, 2
23/11/2007, 12.32, Hall Green BAGS, Cabriol Shaft,
23/11/2007, 12.42, Walthamstow BAGS, Dogtor On Call, 2
13.27, Walthamstow BAGS, Craigdales Ruby, 3
23/11/2007, 14.03, Walthamstow
BAGS, Femine Fatale, 4
23/11/2007, 21.14, Sheffield BAGS, Missouri King,
23/11/2007, 22.07, Sheffield BAGS, Marlfield Paris, 1
no staking involved just level stakes. I will get Gary to send me all his
results so far so that we can put them in to a web page.
Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips
are shortish priced but very consistent.
Rasen Sun King 3.9 3rd 6/4
Here are today's (win bets)
am a little early for these selections.
3. Place System (win Bet) -
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 57.34
system (30/07/07) + 22.85
14:30, Wincanton, Saint
Godegrand EP 2.46 2nd
20:25, Wolverhampton, Affrettando
(*) No bet under new system idea
Miracle System (win Bet)
Market Rasen, Youll Do For Me PU 5/4
Pts 2007: +1.61
Choice: 19:50, Wolverhampton, Lord Of The Reins 75pts 3rd 3/1
Pts 2007: - 0.85
Normal: 14:00, Ascot
, Song Of Songs
Top Choice: 13:50, Kelso, Palomar 100 pts
trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on
where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started
with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Click the link below to discover how you can make 150% return on your
investment using a little known secret to easily find lays that just go on
winning time after time...
Click Here to read
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
15.20 Here, Optimistic Harry 3rd 11/4
Today: 15.45 Asc, Amour Multiple
Please Note: The lay betting
system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Triple -Treat: No Qualifier Today
Use the second
favourite (next shortish priced) before the off as the lay.
& Laying (tip 1)
Back: Berings Express
Backing & Laying (tip 2)
Lay: Front Rank
Backing & Laying (tip 3)
Back: Baron Monty
Lay: More Likely
your normal stake on the back and 60% on the lay.
If you normally stake
£10 then put £4.0 on the back and £6.0 on the lay.
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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