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23rd November 2007 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I am going to spend some time just relaxing with the family this weekend.
Hopefully it won't rain so we can go out for a nice long walk.

I had an email from a subscriber called Ian who sent this after reading yesterdays email.

"You are right in not relying too much on the strike rate alone to judge a systems profitability/success. What you need to do is look at the strike rate in conjunction with the average odds of the selections given.

e.g Lets say you have a lay service with a strike rate of 75% with average odds of 2.65 (betfair), the break even strike rate for this system is:-

(2.65 / (1+2.65)) x 100 = 72.60%, therefore the at 75% SR, the system will be profitable. Of course both these could be a moving target, though most laying services have a maximum lay odds limit, so average odds will be reasonably consistent.

You can do the same with back systems

Eg assume a system has a strike rate of 28% - with selections averaging betfair odds of (say) 3.85, then break even is 1 / (3.85-1) x 100 = 35%, so in this case this system would not be profitable long term.

Your comments would be appreciated especially on the maths. "

Thanks Ian spot on.

My point yesterday (maths aside) was to get you to think about the consequences of just joining a service without really considering what could happen if you immediately get into trouble.

I hope you have a great weekend.
Nat at TSF e-Zine Fridays slot.

Hi Friday time again I'm very busy at the mo with both my own trading and working on a few improvements to the tsf e-zine. I have put together another e-book that will be out soon, basically it's a collection of all the strategies that have been featured in the tsf e-zine to date, it's quite amazing how quickly they mount up! It's free to all those that subscribe in December.

We are working on a new pricing structure which will allow those that just want the mag to be able to get it at an affordable price. But for those that want a little bit more than just the e-zine, throughout the month we are going to hold workshops via the trading room where we will be offering a step by step guide to each strategy featured and offering tips and tricks on how and when to use them to best effect, as well as continued access to the private members forum and the tsf e-zine itself. If you would like more info on the new pricing structure or dates for the workshops then let me know.

Now down to the real business, did anyone notice the silver lining to the otherwise depressing Wednesday night that most of us had? Well hopefully those that have been reading my articles here on a Friday would have done!

25 mins into the game with Croatia leading 2-0 the price to lay the draw was 3.55. Well I wanted to see England comeback with all the will in the world but when there's value to be had you have to get involved!! I lumped on, very happily after all if England had managed to get one back before half time you would hardly be looking at devastating losses if any at all. I traded out during the half time period at a healthy 4.2, to lock in a handsome profit! From a trade with very little potential downside, Nice work if you can get it!! lol

The moral of the story well it's a simple one when ever England or anything English is involved there's a trade to be had. I stress once again look out for those over-reactions coz there's gold in them there hills.

May be worth keeping an eye on the next England Manager market as well, I'm not sure but I get the impression that there isn't going to be any rush, so there might be a trade in there somewhere if I see one I'll let you know. Personally I would like to see either Mourinho or Martin O'neil get the job, but I wont be holding my breath!

Sorry it's brief this week; perhaps I'll post something beautiful next week, until then,

Keep it Green

A reader named Gary.
These are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on paper for the moment, since it is still in testing. However results have been very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite quickly:


23/11/2007, 11.19, Hall Green BAGS, Natural Jo, 3
23/11/2007, 11.34, Hall Green BAGS, Lacken Black, 6
23/11/2007, 11.42, Walthamstow BAGS, Liscahane Kia, 4
23/11/2007, 11.57, Walthamstow BAGS, Granary Girl, 2
23/11/2007, 12.32, Hall Green BAGS, Cabriol Shaft, 1
23/11/2007, 12.42, Walthamstow BAGS, Dogtor On Call, 2
23/11/2007, 13.27, Walthamstow BAGS, Craigdales Ruby, 3
23/11/2007, 14.03, Walthamstow BAGS, Femine Fatale, 4
23/11/2007, 21.14, Sheffield BAGS, Missouri King, 3
23/11/2007, 22.07, Sheffield BAGS, Marlfield Paris, 1

There is no staking involved just level stakes. I will get Gary to send me all his results so far so that we can put them in to a web page.

2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.

1310 Market Rasen Sun King 3.9 3rd 6/4

Here are today's (win bets)

Sorry I am a little early for these selections.
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 57.34
Points new system (30/07/07) + 22.85

14:30, Wincanton, Saint Godegrand EP 2.46 2nd

20:25, Wolverhampton, Affrettando EP 2.00

(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal:  14:40, Market Rasen, Youll Do For Me PU 5/4
Pts 2007: +1.61
Top Choice:  19:50, Wolverhampton, Lord Of The Reins 75pts 3rd 3/1
Pts 2007: - 0.85
Bank =502.60

Normal: 14:00, Ascot , Song Of Songs
Top Choice: 13:50, Kelso, Palomar 100 pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Click the link below to discover how you can make 150% return on your investment using a little known secret to easily find lays that just go on winning time after time...
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
15.20 Here, Optimistic Harry 3rd 11/4

Today: 15.45 Asc, Amour Multiple

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Triple Treats

Triple -Treat: No Qualifier Today
Use the second favourite (next shortish priced) before the off as the lay.

Backing & Laying (tip 1)
Race:12.50 Ascot
Back: Berings Express
Lay: Lady Berne

Backing & Laying (tip 2)
Race:1.50 Kelso
Back: Palomar
Lay: Front Rank

Backing & Laying (tip 3)
Race:2.25 Kelso
Back: Baron Monty
Lay: More Likely

40% of your normal stake on the back and 60% on the lay.
If you normally stake £10 then put £4.0 on the back and £6.0 on the lay.

Tiple Treats

8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

Sorry no more Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the Grey Horse bot then you can still load the session file in.

Or there are still a few copies of the system left.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

We make every effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information provided.

This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

You can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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