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24th May 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

As someone who bets I am also interested in statistics and how they can effect your betting.

Lets take the odds of evens (2.00 on the exchanges), this tells us that the market thinks that horse has a 50/50 chance of winning (or losing), very much like if you tossed a coin.

Statistics tell us that if we bet only at evens sooner or later we will end up with even money.

There are a couple of interesting things here that you should be aware of.

1) If you are betting on betfair then your commission is going to take some of your money every time you win.

2) How long it will take for statistics to play out and you actually come back to evens.

What I mean by this is that say you lose on the 1st two evens bets, that does not mean you will on the next two. In fact, in theory it could take hundreds of bets before you get back to even money.

The problem is that although the odds state that this is an evens bet the same as when you toss a coin, you could quite easily have a losing run of 10 or a winning run of 10 at some point.

The interesting thing is that there is no time span associated with when the results will even up. It could actually take years from your start point or a few days.

So I got to thinking this will be a good experiment with the Grey Horse Bot!

The bot allows you to set up a price range and to bet on any horse that meets that price range.

We are not interested in anything but getting the price, I don't think it even matters when we get it, we just need to get a bet at evens.

I would love to hear your comments on this because I know many of you are interested in statistics so it would be great to hear your point of view.

More on this tomorrow.

2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been receiving some win tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.

There are two selections Best and Next best. You can look at best only or follow both. Shaun suggest that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he chases any losses onto the next selection.

I am going to start with a £500 bank.
What you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case £25.00 and then divide it by the available odds and that's your stake.
So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £25 by 2 making a £12.50 stake.
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available odds.

Shaun sends the tips out as well on Saturday, so join his private list here.

Let's see what happens.
Yesterdays Bank = £740.86
7:20 SEDGEFIELD HIGHGLEN (Best Bet) 5th 2/1
8:10 HUNTINGDON CAPE STORMER (Next Best)  1st 2/1

Todays Bank = £777.90

Here are todays.(Don't forget win bets)
4:40 GOODWOOD GENARI (Next Best)

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 15.76

15.50 Ayr, Ptarmigan Ridge EP 2.26 7th
15.30 Kelso, Buckstruther, EP 2.1 4th
16.10 Lingfield, Jeepstar EP 4.00 5th
18.40 Huntingdon, Ground Breaker, EP 2.46 8th
19.40 Huntingdon, Classic Gold, EP 4.4  1st
19.50 Sedgefield, Mr Twins, EP 2.76 6th
20.20 Sedgefield, High Frequency EP 4.1 7th

15.10 Goodwood, So Sweet EP 2.4
15.20 Bangor, Ice Tea EP 2.16
16.30 Bangor,  Neven EP 2.66
18.50 Southwell, Six Of Trumps EP 2.12
20.20 Southwell, Grand Symphony EP 3.25

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday: (9th may)
Normal: 16:40, Lingfield, Philatelist 1st 4/11
Pts 2007: - 5.08
Top Choice: 15:00, Kelso, Yes Sir 50pts 1st 1/14
Pts 2007: -4.77
Bank = 559.00

Normal:  14:10, Bangor-On-Dee, Go Solo
Top Choice:  14:10, Bangor-On-Dee, Go Solo 50pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 03/05/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
 14.30 Kelso Alfonso 1st 2/1

Today: 3.30 Newcastle, Royal Rock 

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

As at 8 o'clock:time this morning the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the other runner's.
Quit when your profit target has been reached. Prepare for liability in advance - always plan your next move first.

15.20 Bang  MY IMMORTAL     @1.9

15.55 Bang  NOBLE ACTION    @2.1

16.30 Bang  KOVA HILL           @2.7

17.15 Newc ROCK N ROLLER   @1.9

18.20 Sthl    DIADEMAS            @2.7


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

After playing around with selections I have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are from the original and tighter system, I am not using these now.
Udate. I am now stopping at the first winner and changing my stop loss to £16.00 although I think this may be to high and we should also stop at the first loser and call it a day. Only time will tell.

12.04, Hall Green BAGS, Jenson Schwarz, 4, (*) 6th 11/4
12.12, Newcastle BAGS, Copeland Duels, 2, (*) 6th 6/1
12.42, Newcastle BAGS, Gojonnygogogogo, 6, 4th 10/1
13.33, Hall Green BAGS, Winetavern Boxer, 4,  3rd 7/2
13.44, Newcastle BAGS, Stay Cool, 4,  5th 5/1
13.51, Hall Green BAGS, Supreme Madonna, 5,  2nd 5/1
14.08, Hove BAGS, Miss Takle, 6, 1st 3/1
14.18, Oxford BAGS, Avid Storm, 3,  6th 3/1
14.57, Oxford BAGS, Bregogue Eire, 3, 4th 5/2
15.07, Hove BAGS, Lettingzone Zoe, 3,  5th 3/1
15.38, Oxford BAGS, Peanut Smuggler, 1, (*)  3rd 4/1
17.27, Hove BAGS, Black Precious, 2,  5th 4/1
17.33, Oxford BAGS, Gee Up Doggy, 2,  1st 5/2
17.48, Oxford BAGS, Reenview Shaun, 5,  5th 3/1
17.58, Hove BAGS, Tragumna Rebel, 1,  1st 9/4
18.04, Oxford BAGS, Ballysimon Rose, 5,  4th 4/1
18.38, Sunderland BAGS, Quarterland Lass, 6,  1st 3/1
19.11, Sunderland BAGS, Tornaroy Talon, 2, (*)  4th 3/1
19.58, Sunderland BAGS, Hillcross Legend, 6,  6th 4/1
20.13, Sunderland BAGS, Elwick Who, 2,  6th 4/1
20.22, Swindon BAGS, Bauravilla Shep, 6, 5th 3/1
21.07, Swindon BAGS, Bunnow Swallow, 1, 
21.22, Swindon BAGS, Radiant Lady, 4,  
Price Screen Shot

Here are today's.
Sheffield BAGS, 11.11, Ross Donn, 6
Sunderland BAGS, 11.48, Connies Maggie, 4
Sunderland BAGS, 12.04, Elwick Tia, 2
Sheffield BAGS, 12.27, Tinas Control, 4
Sheffield BAGS, 13.27, Matts Brosna, 4(*)
Sheffield BAGS, 13.44, Monty Diamond, 1
Romford BAGS, 14.08, Westwood Sheba, 5(*)
Romford BAGS, 14.27, Angels Boy, 2
Crayford BAGS, 14.37, Pishiobury Hart, 4
Crayford BAGS, 14.57, Carvery Lady, 3
Crayford BAGS, 15.17, Loveable Babe, 2(*)
Romford BAGS, 15.28, Shanahan Star, 3
Crayford BAGS, 15.38, Wastingmylife, 4(*)
Romford BAGS, 15.48, Royal Kaiser, 3
Crayford BAGS, 16.37, Kernows Rose, 5
Romford BAGS, 17.27, Roofless, 5
Romford BAGS, 17.44, Sekon Storm, 3
Romford BAGS, 17.58, Ardera Stacey, (*)1
Crayford BAGS, 18.04, Ballybrien Katy, 1(*)
Sittingbourne BAGS, 18.28, Honest I Do, 3(*)
Newcastle BAGS, 18.38, Shanless Lemon, 1
Sittingbourne BAGS, 19.52, Saleen Dollar, 2
Newcastle BAGS, 19.58, Slievenamon Lad, 5
Sittingbourne BAGS, 20.07, Bet On Grable, 1
Newcastle BAGS, 20.13, Prince Black, 5
Sittingbourne BAGS, 20.22, Clonad Glory, 4
Newcastle BAGS, 20.43, Stormy Maxie, 3
Newcastle BAGS, 20.58, Tornaroy Tintac, 2
Newcastle BAGS, 21.14, Georgia May, 4

Download the session.xml here (normally available by 10am mon-Fri)

Normal daily settings.
Stake 2.00
Stop Win: 2.00
Stop Loss: 16.00

I set the Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.

9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections started 13/11/2006

This is a win system (test) that me and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one really refining it. Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get these selections Saturday by signing up here:

Yesterday's Results can now been seen at:


Millionaire Double Selection.
8.50 South: Jeu D'estrit/Starcross Maid

Millionaire Daily Nap
2.10 Bang: Go Solo

Millionaire Double Take: 40pts Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
2.10 Bang: Go Solo/
The idea is to to back the favourite and lay the second best priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that most of the time the lay should not change but if it does then it is always the best priced horse (lay side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be £10 split 4.00 on the back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do this how you want but we suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any loses on the back bet because we feel the lay will lose far less often.

Backing & Laying (new 21/05/2001)
5.05 Bang: Beau Nash/Markington(Industrial Star)
Staking same as above.

Full details are given at

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

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