24th May 2007
As someone who bets I am also interested in statistics
and how they can effect your betting.
Lets take the odds of evens (2.00
on the exchanges), this tells us that the market thinks that horse has a 50/50
chance of winning (or losing), very much like if you tossed a
Statistics tell us that if we bet only at evens sooner or later we
will end up with even money.
There are a couple of interesting things
here that you should be aware of.
1) If you are betting on betfair then
your commission is going to take some of your money every time you
2) How long it will take for statistics to play out and you
actually come back to evens.
What I mean by this is that say you lose on
the 1st two evens bets, that does not mean you will on the next two. In fact,
in theory it could take hundreds of bets before you get back to even
The problem is that although the odds state that this is an evens
bet the same as when you toss a coin, you could quite easily have a losing run
of 10 or a winning run of 10 at some point.
The interesting thing is
that there is no time span associated with when the results will even up. It
could actually take years from your start point or a few days.
So I got
to thinking this will be a good experiment with the
The bot allows you to set up a price range and to bet on any
horse that meets that price range.
We are not interested in anything
but getting the price, I don't think it even matters when we get it, we just
need to get a bet at evens.
I would love to hear your comments on this
because I know many of you are interested in statistics so it would be great to
hear your point of view.
More on this tomorrow.
Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been receiving some win tips from a good
friend of mine called Shaun.
There are two selections Best and Next
best. You can look at best only or follow both. Shaun suggest that you aim to
make 5% of your bank a day and he chases any losses onto the next
I am going to start with a £500 bank.
What you do
then is take 5% of your bank, in this case £25.00 and then divide it by
the available odds and that's your stake.
So if the odds were 2/1 then I
would divide £25 by 2 making a £12.50 stake.
If I then lost I
would take the £25 already lost and add it to my next stake that is again
5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available
Shaun sends the tips out as well on Saturday, so join his private
Let's see what happens.
Yesterdays Bank =
7:20 SEDGEFIELD HIGHGLEN (Best Bet) 5th 2/1
HUNTINGDON CAPE STORMER (Next Best) 1st 2/1
Todays Bank =
Here are todays.(Don't forget win bets)
GENARI (Next Best)
8:20 SOUTHWELL LADY GLORIA (Best Bet)
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 15.76
15.50 Ayr, Ptarmigan Ridge EP 2.26 7th
Buckstruther, EP 2.1 4th
16.10 Lingfield, Jeepstar EP 4.00 5th
Huntingdon, Ground Breaker, EP 2.46 8th
19.40 Huntingdon, Classic Gold, EP
19.50 Sedgefield, Mr Twins, EP 2.76 6th
High Frequency EP 4.1 7th
15.10 Goodwood, So Sweet EP
15.20 Bangor, Ice Tea EP 2.16
16.30 Bangor, Neven EP 2.66
18.50 Southwell, Six Of Trumps EP 2.12
20.20 Southwell, Grand Symphony EP
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday: (9th may)
Normal: 16:40, Lingfield, Philatelist 1st 4/11
Pts 2007: - 5.08
Top Choice: 15:00, Kelso, Yes Sir 50pts 1st 1/14
Pts 2007: -4.77
Bank = 559.00
Normal: 14:10, Bangor-On-Dee, Go
Top Choice: 14:10, Bangor-On-Dee, Go Solo 50pts
trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on
where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started
with a 500pts bank on the 03/05/2007)
You can purchase this system
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
14.30 Kelso Alfonso 1st 2/1
Today: 3.30 Newcastle, Royal Rock
Please Note: The lay
betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the
selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
As at 8
this morning the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over
2.8 or where non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged
between the Favourite and the other runner's.
Quit when your profit target
has been reached. Prepare for liability in advance - always plan your next move
Bang MY IMMORTAL
Bang NOBLE ACTION
Newc ROCK N ROLLER @1.9
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
After playing around with selections I
have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I
think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I
suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what
that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort
to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks
(*) are from the original and tighter system, I am not using these
Udate. I am now stopping at the first winner and changing my
stop loss to £16.00 although I think this may be to high and we should
also stop at the first loser and call it a day. Only time will tell.
12.04, Hall Green BAGS, Jenson Schwarz, 4, (*) 6th 11/4
12.12, Newcastle BAGS, Copeland Duels, 2, (*) 6th 6/1
BAGS, Gojonnygogogogo, 6, 4th 10/1
13.33, Hall Green BAGS, Winetavern
Boxer, 4, 3rd 7/2
13.44, Newcastle BAGS, Stay Cool, 4, 5th
13.51, Hall Green BAGS, Supreme Madonna, 5, 2nd 5/1
Hove BAGS, Miss Takle, 6, 1st 3/1
14.18, Oxford BAGS, Avid Storm, 3,
14.57, Oxford BAGS, Bregogue Eire, 3, 4th 5/2
BAGS, Lettingzone Zoe, 3, 5th 3/1
15.38, Oxford BAGS, Peanut
Smuggler, 1, (*) 3rd 4/1
17.27, Hove BAGS, Black Precious, 2,
17.33, Oxford BAGS, Gee Up Doggy, 2, 1st 5/2
Oxford BAGS, Reenview Shaun, 5, 5th 3/1
17.58, Hove BAGS, Tragumna
Rebel, 1, 1st 9/4
18.04, Oxford BAGS, Ballysimon Rose, 5, 4th
18.38, Sunderland BAGS, Quarterland Lass, 6, 1st 3/1
Sunderland BAGS, Tornaroy Talon, 2, (*) 4th 3/1
Sunderland BAGS, Hillcross Legend, 6, 6th 4/1
20.13, Sunderland BAGS,
Elwick Who, 2, 6th 4/1
20.22, Swindon BAGS, Bauravilla Shep, 6, 5th
21.07, Swindon BAGS, Bunnow Swallow, 1,
21.22, Swindon BAGS,
Radiant Lady, 4,
Price Screen Shot
Here are today's.
BAGS, 11.11, Ross Donn, 6
Sunderland BAGS, 11.48, Connies Maggie, 4
Sunderland BAGS, 12.04, Elwick Tia, 2
Sheffield BAGS, 12.27, Tinas Control,
Sheffield BAGS, 13.27, Matts Brosna, 4(*)
Sheffield BAGS, 13.44,
Monty Diamond, 1
Romford BAGS, 14.08, Westwood Sheba, 5(*)
BAGS, 14.27, Angels Boy, 2
Crayford BAGS, 14.37, Pishiobury Hart, 4
Crayford BAGS, 14.57, Carvery Lady, 3
Crayford BAGS, 15.17, Loveable Babe,
Romford BAGS, 15.28, Shanahan Star, 3
Crayford BAGS, 15.38,
Romford BAGS, 15.48, Royal Kaiser, 3
16.37, Kernows Rose, 5
Romford BAGS, 17.27, Roofless, 5
17.44, Sekon Storm, 3
Romford BAGS, 17.58, Ardera Stacey, (*)1
BAGS, 18.04, Ballybrien Katy, 1(*)
Sittingbourne BAGS, 18.28, Honest I Do,
Newcastle BAGS, 18.38, Shanless Lemon, 1
19.52, Saleen Dollar, 2
Newcastle BAGS, 19.58, Slievenamon Lad, 5
Sittingbourne BAGS, 20.07, Bet On Grable, 1
Newcastle BAGS, 20.13, Prince
Sittingbourne BAGS, 20.22, Clonad Glory, 4
20.43, Stormy Maxie, 3
Newcastle BAGS, 20.58, Tornaroy Tintac, 2
Newcastle BAGS, 21.14, Georgia May, 4
session.xml here (normally available by 10am mon-Fri)
Stop Win: 2.00
Stop Loss: 16.00
Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win
Selections started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me
and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him
select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one
really refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get
these selections Saturday by signing up here:
Yesterday's Results can now been seen at:
8.50 South: Jeu D'estrit/Starcross Maid
Millionaire Daily Nap
2.10 Bang: Go Solo
Millionaire Double Take:
40pts Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
2.10 Bang: Go Solo/
The idea is to to back the favourite and lay
the second best priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that most of the
time the lay should not change but if it does then it is always the best priced
horse (lay side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be £10 split
4.00 on the back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do this how you want
but we suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any loses on the back
bet because we feel the lay will lose far less often.
Laying (new 21/05/2001)
5.05 Bang: Beau Nash/Markington(Industrial
Staking same as above.
Full details are given at
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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