26th July 2007
Fillies selection won yesterday and I have made sure I have selected
today's again already.
We have talked about "value" in
this email before but it is one of those subjects that can be a little hard to
define, so it is easy to understand.
Most people agree that Betfair
prices just before the off give a true reflection of the chances of a horse
winning and so with Betfair commission included, you would lose money if you
backed runners purely on price over time.
Lets say you backed all horses
that went off at evens. This means you should have a 50% chance of winning or
losing so over time very much like a toss of a coin you should even out and
have as many losers as winners, but where you will most certainly lose is
paying Betfair 5% everytime you win.
Now we already know that all
horses that are trading at evens are not going to win so depending on if you
are a backer or layer then you have to find something, that tips the odds
slightly in our favour and that is why we have systems/tips because in theory
these should give us an edge.
Of course it is not that simple because it
is unlikely you will find a selection at exactly 2.00 on the exchanges and
generally you will have to use a wider odds range and of course this will mean
it is no longer and evens bet.
It is important that you keep a record of
the odds that you are betting at because you may find there is a pattern and
that you can take advantage off.
A simple explanation may be that you
find that most of your wins come within a certain price range and your losses
within another. In this case you may want to try and improve on the odds that
you are getting.
There is no reason if you have the time you can ask for
a different price than is current, one of the things you must remember about
Betfair is that although the prices may be about right, you also have many
traders who are trying to "close a position" or "cut losses" and these are the
people that may well give you a better price than you were expecting.
know of a couple of people who will not place a bet unless they get the price
they want because they know in the long run they will only win if they get that
A good trick is that if you are a backer ask for the lay price
and if you are a layer ask for the back price, you will be surprised how often
this can work.
Don't forget the saying "There's no harm in asking!"
2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been receiving some win
tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.
There are two selections
Best and Next best. You can look at best only or follow both. Shaun suggest
that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he chases any losses onto the
I am going to start with a £500 bank.
you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case £25.00 and then divide
it by the available odds and that's your stake.
So if the odds were 2/1
then I would divide £25 by 2 making a £12.50 stake.
If I then
lost I would take the £12.50 already lost and add it to my next stake
that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available
Shaun sends the tips out as well on Saturday, so join his
private list here.
Let's see what happens.
CATTERICK 4.20 SPIRITUAL PEACE (BB) 4th 5/2
CATTERICK 2.50 FEISTY ROYALE (NB) 2nd 7/4
Here are today's
4:05 BATH MAFAHEEM (7) BEST BET
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 23.86
19.40 Sandown, Tudor Prince EP 2.47
Uttoxeter, Gipsy Cricketer EP2.86
20.40 Folkstone, Rudry Dragon EP 2.5
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 15:20, Catterick, Rio Taffeta 1st 6/4
Top Choice: 20:25, Leicester, What A Treasure 25pts 1s
Pts 2007: -3.43
16.15 Uttoxeter, Toni Alcala
Top Choice: 18.00
York, Minshar 25pts
(we are trying an experiment with the Top
Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan.
25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
7.40 Sand Shevchenko 1st 7/4
Today: 19.40 Folk, Dressed To Dance
Please Note: The lay betting
system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
As at 8 o'clock this morning the
following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market
changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where
non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not
lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the
Quit when your profit target has been reached.
for liability in advance - always plan your next move first.
Bath SAILOR AT SEA @1.9
15.40 Uttox KILLARD POINT @2.7
17.10 Bath GIB
17.50 Lim OUR JO JO @2.7
19.10 Folk ATITUDE @2.7
Bismarx Blog at: http://www.Bismarx.blogspot.com
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win
Selections started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me
and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him
select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one
really refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get
these selections by signing up here:
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
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can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.