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30th April 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

Sorry I am in a little bit of a rush this morning so I will leave you with Darrens weekely article.

Darren from the Betting School.

Following Tipsters

If more than one tipster naps a particular runner in a race does that mean you should back it or lay it?

This is the question on my mind this morning, having just read an article which proposes that we look for consensus naps to back. IE when two tipsters make the same selection there best win bet of the day we should bet it to win.

There was a time when I would have considered this a good strategy, but that was before I had a good understanding of value and market forces.

The answer to the question is not straightforward, which unfortunately is often the case!

If The Sun newspaper naps a selection you can be sure that there will be a lot of people betting that horse. If it is also napped by the Racing Post then a whole lot more people will be considering it as a bet also. What this means is that the horse will be overbet and market forces will cause the price to shorten.

It's just simple supply and demand if everybody wants to buy something the price goes up. Like the housing market when huge mortgages are easy to come by, the price of a house goes up because for every house there is competition to buy it. Now we have a credit squeeze on there are not so many buyers so the seller has to reduce their price in order to make the sale.

In betting to win, the equivalent of the price going up is that the prices shorten EG your 2/1 shot is suddenly only available at 6/4. If it has a one in three chance then it is now bad value and is a bad bet, whether it wins or loses, because over the long term at level stakes you will lose if you back horses with a one in three chance at odds of less than 2/1. Fact.

Win @ 6/4 = +1.5
Lose @6/4 = -1
Lose @6/4 = -1

Grand Total = - 0.5

So to get back to the opening question the answer is that if you have access to a couple of unknown but good tipsters and they both nap a selection and the rest of the world doesn't, then it is likely that you are onto a value bet.

On the other hand if two well known and popular tipsters nap the same selection, then you might want to look closer at the selection with a view to laying it to lose, it is unlikley that the selection will start at a value price.

Darren Power is the Editor of the Betting School Insiders Report, a publication dedicated to teaching winning methods for the UK betting scene. To register for a sample copy please visit

New Lay Test

2.30 South: Rambling Socks EP 12 3rd (2 NR's runners no bet)
8.20 Sedg: Give us a Gander EP 32 2nd 7/1 (we didn't get a match)

14.00 Worc, Hello You EP 32

Pot 2 now stands at £-92.95 (Target £70.00)
New Greyhound Lay system I had come up with.

After some thought I think that the only way to run this system is as a "Stop in Profit". I am going to keep the maximum odds set to 6.00 and I am going to be a little naughty and add in a lay ladder staking plan.

I will start showing all selections now but please remember that some of the late races may not appear on Betfair.

12:04, Nott, Threeinabed
12:18, Nott, Derryhogan Ice
12:47, Nott, Hopeofthehouse
12:58, PBarr, Trejon J
12:58, PBarr, Sailing Spirit
13:44, PBarr, Similar News
14:37, Sund, Oklahoma Sunset
16:08, Crayfd, Pishiobury Mako
16:37, Sund, Tee Cee
16:47, Crayfd, Snipers Escape
16:57, Sund, Bears Jill
17:07, Crayfd, Roberts Queen
17:17, Sund, Mayfield Flash
18:18, Sund, Mackem Keane
18:18, Sund, Bedrock Venus
18:38, Sheff, Preston Tiny
18:48, Newc, Lady Killoe
18:56, Sheff, Droopys Brendan
20:13, Sheff, Sky Dancer
20:22, Newc, Unsafe Option
21:37, Newc, Lady Of Means
21:.5, Sheff, Cals Nikita
21:52, Newc, Newmac Scholes
22:.4, Sheff, Dark Rumou
I finished early as always and although I finished with a loss I was still in profit.

Here are today's
11:11, Newc, Frenchs Lass
12:12, Newc, Velocity Vic
12:47, HGrn, Jenson Berry
13:44, Newc, Stay For One
14:37, BVue, Lifes Joker
14:47, Hove, Bangersnmash
15:07, Hove, Funky Fantasy
15:38, BVue, Everilgate Lucky
16:37, BVue, Bluetooth Bruce
17:17, BVue, Pioneer Belle
17:22, Hove, Fiddlers Lady
17:22, Hove, Shins Kewell
17:33, BVue, Ardagh Blue
19:06, Swin, Lemming Sky
19:42, Sund, Bridge Spire
20:07, Swin, Run On Lazy
20:13, Sund, Vegas Gem
20:58, Sund, Charlie Chase
21:07, Swin, Noblesse Oblige
21:.4, Swin, Rocket Ronaldo
21:55, Swin, Stanton Denis
22:22, Sund, Teds Yer Man

Please remember this is a new test and there are no rules yet.

Guest Selection
Andrew lays


No Tips today

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Ace Nap

14.00 Worc, Bormo

Ace Nap

Malcolm's Selections
Best Lay of the Day
No Nap

Today: 17.15 Pont, Force Group

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Place System: Started 20-11-2006

This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 66.38
Points new system (30/07/07) + 28.40

14:30, Southwell, Ugenius, EP 2.6 (*) NR
14:50, Wincanton, Amir El Jabal, EP 2.02 (only 7 runners) 5th
16:10, Bath, Friends Hope, EP 2.24 3rd (a NR)
16:20, Wincanton, Cortinas, EP 2.68 NR
20:05, Wolverhampton, Betonart, EP 2.36 (*) 6th

14:10, Ascot, Pride Of Kings, EP 2.58 (*)
15:40, Worcester, Boss Imperial, EP 2.9 (*)
16:15, Worcester, Bebedash, EP 3.4 (*)

(*) No bet under new system idea


Back test system
Started 13/12/2007. We orginally tested this as a "lay" system but I felt the results were better suited to a "Back" system and so that is how we are now testing it.
£10 stakes.

Level Stakes
£21.84 (after 5% commision) Started 25/01/2008
Using a staking plan similar to CashMaster, started 11/3/2008 after a win on the 10/3/2008.
Bank(staking plan) + £42.02 (staking running loss 17.50 )
16:40, Bath, Dark Missile EP 2.00 (Staking stake £7.50) 2nd 4/5

15:55, Asct, Soapy Danger EP 2.5 (Staking stake £11.66)

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing laying these selections.

Other Information
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Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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