Sorry I am in a little bit of a rush this morning so I
will leave you with Darrens weekely article.
Darren from the Betting
If more than one tipster naps a particular runner in a race
does that mean you should back it or lay it?
This is the question on my
mind this morning, having just read an article which proposes that we look for
consensus naps to back. IE when two tipsters make the same selection there best
win bet of the day we should bet it to win.
There was a time when I
would have considered this a good strategy, but that was before I had a good
understanding of value and market forces.
The answer to the question is
not straightforward, which unfortunately is often the case!
If The Sun
newspaper naps a selection you can be sure that there will be a lot of people
betting that horse. If it is also napped by the Racing Post then a whole lot
more people will be considering it as a bet also. What this means is that the
horse will be overbet and market forces will cause the price to shorten.
It's just simple supply and demand if everybody wants to buy something
the price goes up. Like the housing market when huge mortgages are easy to come
by, the price of a house goes up because for every house there is competition
to buy it. Now we have a credit squeeze on there are not so many buyers so the
seller has to reduce their price in order to make the sale.
to win, the equivalent of the price going up is that the prices shorten EG your
2/1 shot is suddenly only available at 6/4. If it has a one in three chance
then it is now bad value and is a bad bet, whether it wins or loses, because
over the long term at level stakes you will lose if you back horses with a one
in three chance at odds of less than 2/1. Fact.
Win @ 6/4 = +1.5
Lose @6/4 = -1
Lose @6/4 = -1
Grand Total = - 0.5
get back to the opening question the answer is that if you have access to a
couple of unknown but good tipsters and they both nap a selection and the rest
of the world doesn't, then it is likely that you are onto a value bet.
On the other hand if two well known and popular tipsters nap the same
selection, then you might want to look closer at the selection with a view to
laying it to lose, it is unlikley that the selection will start at a value
Darren Power is the Editor of the
School Insiders Report, a publication dedicated to teaching winning methods
for the UK betting scene. To register for a sample copy please visit
New Lay Test
South: Rambling Socks EP 12 3rd (2 NR's runners no bet)
8.20 Sedg: Give us a
Gander EP 32 2nd 7/1 (we didn't get a match)
Hello You EP 32
Pot 2 now stands at
£-92.95 (Target £70.00)
Lay system I had come up with.
some thought I think that the only way to run this system is as a "Stop in
Profit". I am going to keep the maximum odds set to 6.00 and I am going to be a
little naughty and add in a lay ladder staking plan.
will start showing all selections now but please remember that some of the late
races may not appear on Betfair.
12:18, Nott, Derryhogan Ice
12:58, PBarr, Trejon J
12:58, PBarr, Sailing Spirit
13:44, PBarr, Similar News
14:37, Sund, Oklahoma Sunset
Crayfd, Pishiobury Mako
16:37, Sund, Tee Cee
16:47, Crayfd, Snipers
16:57, Sund, Bears Jill
17:07, Crayfd, Roberts Queen
17:17, Sund, Mayfield Flash
18:18, Sund, Mackem Keane
18:38, Sheff, Preston Tiny
18:48, Newc, Lady Killoe
18:56, Sheff, Droopys Brendan
20:13, Sheff, Sky Dancer
Newc, Unsafe Option
21:37, Newc, Lady Of Means
21:.5, Sheff, Cals
21:52, Newc, Newmac Scholes
22:.4, Sheff, Dark Rumou
finished early as always and although I finished with a loss I was still in
11:11, Newc, Frenchs Lass
12:12, Newc, Velocity Vic
12:47, HGrn, Jenson Berry
13:44, Newc, Stay For One
14:37, BVue, Lifes
14:47, Hove, Bangersnmash
15:07, Hove, Funky Fantasy
BVue, Everilgate Lucky
16:37, BVue, Bluetooth Bruce
17:22, Hove, Fiddlers Lady
17:22, Hove, Shins Kewell
17:33, BVue, Ardagh Blue
19:06, Swin, Lemming Sky
19:42, Sund, Bridge
20:07, Swin, Run On Lazy
20:13, Sund, Vegas Gem
21:07, Swin, Noblesse Oblige
21:.4, Swin, Rocket
21:55, Swin, Stanton Denis
22:22, Sund, Teds Yer Man
Please remember this is a new test and there are no rules yet.
No Tips today
Sponsors of the day
Sponsor product of the day (please take a look you never
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Sponsor Tip of the
14.00 Worc, Bormo
Best Lay of the Day
Today: 17.15 Pont, Force Group
Please Note: The lay betting system is
actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
Place System: Started
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 66.38
system (30/07/07) + 28.40
14:30, Southwell, Ugenius, EP
2.6 (*) NR
14:50, Wincanton, Amir El Jabal, EP 2.02 (only 7 runners)
16:10, Bath, Friends Hope, EP 2.24 3rd (a NR)
Cortinas, EP 2.68 NR
20:05, Wolverhampton, Betonart, EP 2.36 (*) 6th
14:10, Ascot, Pride Of Kings, EP 2.58 (*)
Boss Imperial, EP 2.9 (*)
16:15, Worcester, Bebedash, EP 3.4 (*)
(*) No bet under new system idea
Started 13/12/2007. We orginally tested this as a "lay" system
but I felt the results were better suited to a "Back" system and so that is how
we are now testing it.
(after 5% commision) Started 25/01/2008
Using a staking plan similar to
CashMaster, started 11/3/2008 after a win on the 10/3/2008.
Bank(staking plan) + £42.02 (staking running loss 17.50
16:40, Bath, Dark Missile EP 2.00 (Staking stake
£7.50) 2nd 4/5
15:55, Asct, Soapy
Danger EP 2.5 (Staking stake £11.66)
Remember this is just a
test and we are paper testing laying these selections.
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
If you need help about anything please go to my
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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