30th May 2007
We have been talking about statistics over the last few
days and how "evens" on betfair statistically seems to be very
As a layer what I am really interested in is winning and
losing runs and if I can use a staking plan to help me out.
I think if
you look at statistics on paper then at evens they will say anything is
possible as far as winning and losing runs. Although this applies to a toss of
coin or some other type of inert object, I feel (could be wrong) with horses
there are just to many variables to imagine that you would get 10 runners in a
row winning at evens. Maybe 5 or possibly 6 but it would be difficult to
convince me there could be more.
My limited research so far has shown
that it is almost impossible to lay a horse at one price anyway, so the first
thing we need to do is look at a wider range of odds to work with.
a layers point of view I want to stack it slightly in my favour so I think I am
going to select odd from evens to 2/1 (2.00 to 3.0) on betfair.
fair on statistics we now want to choose a market that should be pretty
consistent, so we will use the Greyhound market as there are always 6 runners
and no jockeys to contend with and we have to accept that the dogs just run
because there is no outside influence (we hope).
So I will set a Grey
Horse Bot up to bet on one dog per race where the price is between 2 and
Notice that I am not going to select only favourites because we
shouldn't be concerned about this, we just want the price.
I think a few
days of testing should be interesting before we start looking at ways to help
us out a little.
2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
been receiving some win tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.
There are two selections Best and Next best. You can look at best only or
follow both. Shaun suggest that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he
chases any losses onto the next selection.
I am going to start with a
What you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case
£25.00 and then divide it by the available odds and that's your
So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £25 by 2 making a
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost
and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this
new figure by the available odds.
Shaun sends the tips out as well on
Saturday, so join his private list here.
Let's see what happens.
Yesterdays Bank =
No selections in this email yesterday, but if you joined the
seperate mailer you have got these later.
Here are today's
YARMOUTH BRUNELLESCHI (Strength 7) (BB)
5:35 YARMOUTH GIGGS MAGIC (Strength
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 16.24
19.05 Hexham, Beaufoy EP 4.2 2nd
21.10 Hexham, Lazy
Lena, EP 2.86 6th
14.00 Beverley, Sirjoshua
Reynolds EP 2.82
16.2 Brighton, Squirtle EP 2.38
Totally Free EP 2.2
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 19:05, Hexham, Stara 4th 8/13
Top Choice: 19:15, Sandown, Charlie Farnsbarns 75pts 2nd
Pts 2007: -6.41
Beverley, Siren's Gift
Top Choice: 19:05, Southwell, Fractured Foxy
(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and
the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level
stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 03/05/2007)
purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Turn your lay betting system into winning systems with Roy's easy learn low
risk Amazing staking plans.
Click Here to read
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
20.20 Sand Ajaan 8th 10/3
Today: 4.55 Brighton, Vegas Boys
Please Note: The lay betting
system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Selection 1: 5.15 Cartmel Naomh
Selection 2: 6.50 Beverley Astroangel 1Pts
Selection 3: 7.00
Leopardstown Miss Gorica 1Pts
Selection 4: 8.30 Leopardstown Stef’s
Selection 5: 8.35 Southwell Modern Verse 1Pts
That is it for
today. Good luck. Lou.
We use 5% of our bank.
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry Yesterday was the last day of the
Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win
Selections started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me
and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him
select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one
really refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get
these selections Saturday by signing up here:
Yesterday's Results can now been seen at:
4.30 Yar: Brunelleschi/Mr Cellophane
6.20 Bev: Dee Cee Elle
Millionaire Double Take: 40pts
Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
The idea is to to back the favourite
and lay the second best priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that
most of the time the lay should not change but if it does then it is always the
best priced horse (lay side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be
£10 split 4.00 on the back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do
this how you want but we suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any
loses on the back bet because we feel the lay will lose far less often.
Backing & Laying (new 21/05/2001)
3.20 Yar: We'll Come/Gongidas
Staking same as above.
Full details are given at
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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