This week we have been talking
about finding away to find a value bet and to come up with our own way of
creating a rating system.
Let us now look at the types of
form we can use that will help us in our quest to find a value bet.
The simple things to look for
Won at the same distance
(Denoted by D along the side the name of the horse at RP)
Won at the course
(Denoted by C along the side the name of the horse at RP)
Won at the same
Dropping a Class
Going up a class
Dropping a Class
LTO (Last time out, only really relevant if at same distance and
class although you should look at the distance it won against it's nearest
Weight (compared to LTO and it's rivals in this
How many days since last run (Number along the side the name of the
horse at RP)
The above list is what I call
the factual element of form and these are the ones I tend to use although there
are probably more.
You could of course also use the
what I refer to as the "human" element and include things like the Trainer form
and how well they normally do at the course, the same with the jockey.
The problem with the "human"
element is that you just don't know how useful it really is for this event but
it certainly should be considered.
One thing to remember here and
that is we are looking for "value" so we probably won't be looking at the 1st
or 2nd favourite, we will be looking for an outsider that we feel has a better
chance than everyone else thinks.
You may find that you are
finding the value in a place bet rather than outright win.
The thing with form is that you
can go as deep as you want. Let's take "Going up or down in class" as
If a horse is moving up in class
then it normally means that it won or did very well in a previous race, so the
trainer is moving it up a class to see if the horse is still competitive. This
is not always the case, sometimes a trainer is just seeing if the horse can
hold it's own at a higher class and build the horses confidence, so they can
then drop it one or two to give it a better chance next time out.
Learning some of the trainer
tricks is well worth the effort!
If you do some research on how well horses
who drop one or two classes do, you may be surprised. And this is one of the
learning curves, to find out how each piece of information can effect a horses
chance and then decide how important it is.
Lay/Back System Test
There are two types of
selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and
the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.
There is one thing to think
about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back
it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could
then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are
not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what
If you want you can download the
selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips
option. The URL is here.
The session file is set as lay,
odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 2.00 stake, but you should use your own option
I will also upload a spreadsheet
once a week with the latest results here.
Lay (Only if under
19.10 Perth, Rory Boy EP 1.71 1st 10/11
Henrythenavigator EP 1.43
Back (Only if over 2.00)
20.20 Worcester, Barneys Mate EP 2.2 1st 10/11 (I watched
the price for most of the day and it didn't drop below 2.02 but I am not sure
nearer the off.)
3:45, Perth, Premier
Dane, EP 2.26
Guest Selection ("An Idea I
want to try")
New guest selection here soon.
Sponsors of the day
("Products and Tips for you to look at.")
of the day (please take a look you never
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what
you are looking for...
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Sponsor Tip of the
Sorry bills had some internet
problems so he couldn't get his selections to me on time.
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay
a day from my Lay betting System")
Bev, Gulf Coast 5th 9/4f
Today: 19.15 Leic, Stargazer Jim
Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one
of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system
Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show
readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a
selection does daily.
You can also have this tip delivered as content
to your own website.
to find out more.
Back test system ( "A 'back'
system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available
as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
As a new idea I am going to
start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the
Please Note: This is a trial.
Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what
you are getting yourself into.
New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £282.20
We will use 5% of
our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use
the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at
betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a
runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking
plan and stake the whole 5% stake.
Yesterday. (Loss amount so far
14:50, Gdwd, Conduit EP 1.7 (Because the selection is under 2.00 we
are only using our normal £25 stake) 1st 1/2
Today. 16:05, Gdwd, Colony EP
5.4 (Stake 49.50)
Remember this is just a test and we are paper
testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information (" Here
is some other info that should help you")
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
If you need help about anything please go to my
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
You can automate your betting with
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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