30th October 2007 2007
I have seen a few systems doing the rounds at the moment
that rely on watching to see if the favourites price improves before the off
and if it does back it.
I wonder how wise this is and if you can
actually make profit from it?
First of all why does a price shorten on a
Well I suppose the most obvious is that people are putting more
money on it, so the bookies lower the price to adjust for the extra payout they
may have to make and the exchanges, because backers are having to offer better
prices to get layers to take the bait, which is actually a very simplistic view
of what's going on but more on that later.
You actually have to look at
the bookies and the exchanges as two different bodies and so the reasons for
prices dropping could be very different and although the weight of money could
be a factor on the exchange, there are other forces that should be
Let's look at it from a bookies point of view.
have to remember bookies, especially the established ones have a lot of
knowledge about racing and they offer the odds based on that knowledge, but
they also have to adjust prices on the amount of money they receive and also
they have to attract punters.
Now in reality at the end of the day they
know as well as we do that anything can happen in a race, but there have to be
occasions where they know a favourite has a lot less chance of winning that
most punters think, they also know that many punters follow favourites and
watch out for changes in price.
So your first question when you see the
price of a favourite changing is why?
(Note: This is one of the reasons
I do not like betting on Saturdays is that the weekend punters have a tendency
to follow what's popular.)
Has something in the race changed?
a major player become a NR (non runner)?
Has the running surface
More on this tomorrow but I would love to hear from you if you
have a comment on this subject and would like to share it with other
Sorry didn't get chance to try the
Voodoo system system yesterday but I am going to see if I can
Don't forget you need to be able to bet all day to use this
TSF lay system.
Please remember this will be a lay
test and we are not even sure the way we are selecting the runners will work,
this may have to become a method rather than a system.
Today's Lay selections.
at all today.
Fillies lost yesterday.
Don't forget if you have bought the ebook
you can also sign up for their tipping service.
2. Guest Selection -
Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish
priced but very consistent.
Full Marks 1.5 on Betfair 4th 2/7
Here are today's (win bets)
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 45.82
system (30/07/07) + 15.39
14.00 Lingfield, Tepee, EP
No Selections today.
(*) No bet
under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 14:40, Kempton, Magic Glade
Pts 2007: +7.23
Top Choice: 16:20, Leicester,
Welsh Emperor 25pts 1st 8/11
Pts 2007: +2.27
Normal: 14:50, Wolverhampton, What`s For Tea
Choice: 14:50, Wolverhampton, What`s For Tea 25pts
(we are trying an
experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we
are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a
500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Click the link below to discover how you can make 150% return on your
investment using a little known secret to easily find lays that just go on
winning time after time...
Click Here to read
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
15.20 Leic Observatory Star 5th
Today: No slection today.
Please Note: The lay
betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the
selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
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6) Now on V4
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
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includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
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You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
. Selection 1: yarmouth 3.40 memphus man*
Selection 3: catterick 2.00 boppies pride***
4: 2.30 distant sun*
Selection 5: 3.20 goose green**
The rule of the 321 staking plan is
subjected to the price of the horses odds on betfair or other exchanges that
allow you to lay a horse.
0-to 6.0 lay 3pts
6.1 to 10/1
10.1 to 20 lay 1pt
Bills 321 Lays
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
9. Ace Naps - (Back
Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I
are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem
to win a lot.
Please remember as always, this is a test.
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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