What a morning. I got in at 7.00 am to find that we had no Internet connection because BT have done a firmware update overnight. I started writing this at 10am and still we can not get on the Internet, so if you actually see this today in your email I am unsure!

But I will carry on anyway....

I am going to try and work in the garden this weekend. We have had a few ideas to make it look a little better for next year and give the dogs a little more room to play in. You should see what a garden looks like after having 5 dogs running around on it. Let's just say there isn't much grass left!

A couple of weeks back I mentioned that I had been working on a system for betting in running. Well I decided to try a few experiments that in the end didn't work out, so I went back to my original plan and algorithm, which seems to work quite well.

The thing is with this system is, that the maximum you are ever going able to bet is 1% (0.5%, would be better) of your bank. The odds tend to be low and the maximum losing run I have had so far is a bout 7, but you know as well as I do that this could change. But the system is fully automated through my in2logic bot, which means I just click start and let it get on with it. Anyway I want to run it for a little while longer and then I will let you know more about what I am doing.

I have also been experimenting with football matches and I think I may have come up with something that works quite well, but again it is all about testing, but the good thing about football if you lay a team then they have to win the match for you to lose, so a draw or a lose is a win for a lay bet.

I probably wouldn't lay Chelsea or one of the top 2 or 3 teams (although the odds make it very inviting) but the middle teams are certainly worth looking at. Although again I will say I know nothing about Football, but there are a lot of sites out there that do!

That's it from me until Monday. Have a great weekend.

I mentioned yesterday that Graham and Brian's had dropped their first months subscription charge to just 19.99 http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ . One thing I forgot to mention when talking about this service over the last few days, is that their daily tips email (that goes out to their subscribers) also includes a link to a file that you can import into GHB.

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/

At the moment you have to use the csv converter built into GHB to load in the daily selections, but will be improving this system shortly to allow greater automation.

I did a very quick video this morning to show you how this works.



http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/members/tips-csv/tips-csv.html

As you can see it is very quick to do but it will be even quicker next month, when we make improvements to automate the system even more.

This is short rambles from me this morning, I have a meeting to get to.

If the weather stays good we are going to do a lot of walking with the dogs this weekend, I want to just get out in to the fresh air.

We have had 3 losers in a row on my Lay Betting System. It was posted in the forum that it has been a long time since we saw that happen and I can only think of one other occasion when it has, but if we put it in context to what we have been talking about this week, then we should have been ready for it.

Before we go on this morning I think we have to accept that after 2 losers this week "Double your chance" is not looking very good at all. David is looking to see if we can learn anything from them but I am not sure you can do much considering the lay prices can be so high.

So carrying on from yesterday....

Looking at http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ and the results...

The ones in the spreadsheet (pre database)

http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/backs.xls

and the ones in the database...

http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/data.asp

And our Observations...

1. All selections are 2 (evens) or above.

2. Longest losing run 9 in one month (10 continuous)

3. Longest winning run is 6

Where does that leave us.

Well I don't fancy the idea of using a staking plan when you may have to go through 9 or 10 losers in a row, it is possible, but can get expensive, so I would go for level stakes betting and stop at 5pts. Now we have to accept that we could have to go through at least 9 or 10 losers, before we get to 5 pts so we have to be ready for that.

So the maximum I would use would be 5% of my bank as a stake, this would give would mean you could go 20 losers before losing the all of it.

If you have a bank of say £200 and you use 5% to back at level stakes of £10 then you should be able to make £50 in your first month. The second month you will have £250 so now you use 5% again and you are now betting £12.50 so you should be able to make £62.50. Just carry on doing that and you could have a substantial bank by the end of the year if things carry on the way they have been going.

Once you have decided on your bank and stake, the next thing you want to do is to see if you can get the same odds that Graham and Brian are getting. Now odds are going to be important to maximise your profit and I think it is important that you try to get as close to or better than Graham and Brian are showing.

The simplest thing to do is just take SP at that the bookies, then you know you will have the same price. You could also test SP at Betfair but remember that you will be paying 5% commission on any winnings to you will have to work out if it is going to be worth it. You could also split your stake and use it in different ways.

One of my favourite ways is to go in running and ask for Betfairs SP + 10% or something like that. GHB is really useful for this idea and http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ give a .CSV everyday that you can use to load the races into GHB and get it to automatically ask for the in-running %. You must remember that you won't always get matched so this should only play part of your strategy.

The point again is to find what works and you are only going to do it through testing!

http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ also have a lay service which is based on a stop at a winner, so next week we will look at them next week.

Lets first have a look at http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ and see id we can make some observations.

We are going to look at the back side so there are two lots of results you need to look at.

The ones in the spreadsheet (pre database)

http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/backs.xls

and the ones in the database.

http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/data.asp

Observations

1. All selections are 2 (evens) or above.

2. Longest losing run 9 in one month (10 continuous)

3. Longest winning run is 6



Now if we really took the time to analyse the data we could probably come up with further facts, like the average price of a selection, the average number of winners and losers and so on and although I think it always a good idea to analyse as much as you can, what you really need to know with the observations above is, can you make money?

According to the results out of 10 months (not including Nov) they have made a profit in 8. When they have lost it hasn't been by much and according to the results there have been some good winning months as well (interpretation).

Now Graham and Brian's idea is that you stop at 12pts, which is fine but although you should take on board what they are saying, the point of the excersize is to see if you can find a way of making profit that suits you from their selections.

You could argue that they get to 5 points quite easily every month, so why go for 12pts when you can get to 5pts and have the rest for the remainder of the month. You could also argue that going for 12 pts only, has left a lot of profit on the table.

There could be a case for using staking, if you can find away to get over the losing runs.

The point of the excersize is to look at the facts.

If we came from an interpretation point of view then you could start making up all sorts of scenario's in your head.

Let's look at their longest losing run of 9. If we look at the results as they are presented our interpretation is 9, but if we observe the data in it's entirety (as we should) then it is 10. Ok only 1 loser difference but you could have told yourself that the most you are likely to lose in a row is 9 bets, when the truth is if you continued betting from one month to the next, it is 10, which could have come as a big shock!

How many losers are you ready for?

Ok this is the last day of the Guest Selection "Good to Lay" if you are interested in still receiving this selection then please sign up at: http://www.thealmostcertainnap.co.uk/ where this tip is now part of the service.

We had another winning day with the new "Double your chance" selection although the lay selection was very high in the morning and I didn't get chance to check the price before the off, to see if it was better.

That's was an interesting little article from Darren yesterday about "Information Overload" and with all the sites and systems being offered it is easy to see why it could happen.

As Darren mentioned it is important to concentrate on one thing at a time but I think the real problem here is that people don't give what they have got a chance, because they are trying to follow the latest "pot of Gold" instead of realising they may have it already, it just needs some testing and tweaking.

I have probably said this over a 1000 times, "you are going to lose", everyone does that is part of the game we play. What counts is when you do how will it effect, you and your bank and what is the worst case scenario.

By concentrating more on one idea or tips, this will give you the time and energy to really find out how you can make money from what you have.

Here is an example.

I have been playing around with my new sports system for months and have been having a lot of success which is great, but in that time I have also been looking at what happens if things go wrong. I know already that with the stakes I am using, I can take 8 maybe even 10 losers in a row, but I have already worked out a plan that if I hit 5, I change my staking to compensate and allow me to fight even longer.

I have only been able to do this, because as you know from these emails I have virtually not stopped testing and talking about it.

So maybe you should dust of some of those systems you have looked at but not tried or even look again at the results you have seen from them and see if you can actually make something of them, you may even save some money instead of putting your hard earned cash on the next "fantastic unbeatable system" which you have just been told about in another promotional e-mail.