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How to profit from horse racing systems
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How hard can it be to create a lay system?

April 15, 2015 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Systems

Not sure about you but I find it difficult to create “laying” systems.

I have had some success over the years but to be honest…

…They are not my most favourite type of system.

So when I started a fully open test on a new idea last year.

I wasn’t sure what to expect.

It actually started on the 17/06/2014

Being a flat system it was half way through the season and I know (from experience) that you have to be careful around month 10 and 11.

I also noticed that there were certain races where the system didn’t perform so well in.

That allowed for a second system which had less selections.

All we could do then was…Wait.

System 1
July (2014) 32.64 points
August (2014) 33.11 points
September (2014) -21.57 points
October (2014 -1.67 points
November (2014) 3.8 points
And
April (2015) 9.5 so far

System 2
July (2014) 23.49 points
August (2014) 26.99 points
September (2014) -19.56 points
October (2014) 1.25 points
November (2014) 2.85 points
And
April (2015) 7.6 so far

So signs are good for this year so far.

You can find out more here.

Thanks
Malcolm

P.S. There are also limited copies of the software left in case you want to get the daily selections.

You can find out more here.

Dust of your Horse Racing Flat Lay Systems

April 08, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi

Yeah I know it is the Grand National week and really I should be
talking about the likely winners.

But to be honest it’s not my thing…

Don’t get me wrong I love the whole atmosphere of the meetings
and all that…

…But I have to wait for any systems I have running on the day
to spot potential winners.

So I wanted to tell you about something else instead…

Last year we ran a test on a “lay” flat system which did
rather well.

Anyway you may like to know it’s started the new flat season
winning again.

Here are the results

It did really well last year and could be as good this year.

But as there are only about 7 months in the Flat season it may be
worth checking it out early.

Here is the link again

Thanks

Malcolm

P.S. We actually tested two systems last year but I thought this
was the best of the two.

But you can also check out the first one here.

3 horse racing tests you must do

March 30, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

I just sent and email out to one of my other lists about testing systems.

It was titled “New Flat Systems 3 Way Tested

I mentioned in there that I am now testing systems using this method…

Price Pressure: (I believe it is difficult to achieve past BSP prices and this may be why systems fail after launch or don’t perform as well as expected.)

Sometimes I now even test them at SP which is always much, much lower than BSP.

Random Sampling: Gives you a chance to pick randomly a number of selections to see if you get the same or similar strike rate and average winning odds.

Edge: These systems will show a positive edge which should point to a much better chance of continuing to perform as expected.

Price pressure is achieved by lowering the prices of every winner.

You should choose at least 10% but sometimes it is worth going as high as 50%

You can use a letter within the name of the horse as a random sample.

So you could select all runners where their name starts with “r” or their second letter is “a”.

The edge is a calculation based around winning odds and strike rate and should always be positive.

Since I added this to the SPB System builder it has helped a lot with recognizing systems that may work long term.

Any positive edge is a bonus but having one above 10 is a good sign.

I have also started testing at different price ranges to see if there are areas to be avoided.

If you are creating your own systems you should certainly consider using these 3 to help you pick systems that potentially have a better chance of working.

Click Here to find out more about the SPB System Builder

Thanks
Malcolm

P.S. I started having one of those crazy sales (I am know for) over at TJ Profit Finder.

As always there are a limited number available and it’s only for 4 days (which ever comes first).

Click Here for more info.

I have been introducing the same criteria on the TJ systems as I am about to do with the Grey Horse Bot ones.

Trainers that are trendy

March 26, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

If there is one thing I am not…it’s “Trendy”.

Modern fashion and music is just not my thing…

Although some of the fashions about remind me of what I use to wear when I may have been considered trendy (well for a short while anyway :-) ).

But when it comes to horse racing I do like to look for trends that point to possible winners.

Ok probably not quite the same definition but I thought it worked well!

Anyway I have been writing a series of post on Trainers Trends.

You can see them here.

It’s going to end up a 4 part series which shows you how I look for trainers that appear to be on a profitable run.

You may think that a “Trend” is only going to be a month or two…

…But you may be surprised how long these trends can last.

Thanks
Malcolm

P.S. If you are really interested in trainers that trend.

Then I have also put together a 7 part video course…

…Where I selected the top 5 Trainers, Jockeys and Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Click here to have a look.

Poodle Racing?

March 25, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

I recently started training my poodle at Agility.

He is actually quite a fast dog and I wondered how he would do in a race against other poodles.

I must admit it makes me laugh thinking of loads of poodles running around a track.

Speed is one of those things many people consider when analysing races.

In fact you will find plenty of places offering speed ratings even the Racing Post has “TS” (top speed).

My own (limited) experience gives me the feeling that they are more useful on shorter races.

They can also help you determine if a horse has enough speed to overcome a draw disadvantage.

Many Flat and AW courses are said to have “draw” bias.

How prominent this is will depend on the course the distance and the going.

This bias can add a reasonable advantage in some cases so that a horse that shouldn’t win on paper becomes one to consider.

With the flat season kicking off this weekend with the “betway Lincoln” at Doncaster on Saturday it may be something you want to look into.

I am working on a chart to represent  bias and will let you know when it is ready.

Thanks

Malcolm

P.S. We have recently added draw bias to our own database and it is now available in the SPB System Builder.

We are planning a number of system trials based around the draw for members of the Grey Horse Bot over the flat season.

We already have 3 we are testing on All Weather.

SPB System Builder is available here.

(new special just opened)

Or

It is available as a “stand alone” product here.

I don’t like reggae…

March 22, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

I don’t like reggae, oh no, I love it

“Dreadlock Holiday A great song by 10cc

I have this really bad habit of changing words in songs…

…Mine looks like this:

I don’t like football…oh no

The problem is I don’t really!

And so when I got this email…

Hi Malcolm

Quite recently I introduced a new product called Soccer Scorcher that targets football matches 12 months of the year.

January produced a profit of £585 with a 1k betting bank. 56% ROI

February made a profit of £506 with a 1k betting bank. 25% ROI

Regards John

I’m like…So?

I don’t like football, oh no, I love horse racing :-)

Ok I know about football…I used to support “Chelsea” (a long time ago)

And yeah I know what the “Off side” rule means.

Really…I should be interested.

The results he reports sound good.

But really you shouldn’t be worried about what sport you follow.

As long as you can make a profit from it…Wouldn’t you agree?

If so Click Here to see the info.

I don’t know I just cannot get excited about it…

…Maybe you can.

I don’t like cricket, oh no…

Thanks

Malcolm

P.S. As you can tell I haven’t tested the tips.

Just not my thing.

But if it is your thing then here is that link again.

Click Here to find out more.

Two Twenty service report

March 20, 2015 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Systems

Last month wasn’t the best of months for the 220 service but as always it gives us valuable information.

Click Here for more info.

I have made no secret that the best ratings figure to use is 260 (not 220 as the site name suggest!)

A higher figure may suit you but 260 is a good place to start.

If you stop at the first winner of the day using 260 then profit at BSP is showing as 4 points.

Not a massive haul of points but at least it is profit.

If you bet on all the selections then the profit is down at 2.8…

…But you may notice if you change the rating to 290 it gets to 5.4.

The only other thing to mention is SAW using staking.

If you are going to opt for this idea then have a look at 260 with a maximum number of losers as 4.

This set up seems to work well.

Click here to get all the information on the Two Twenty service.

Thanks

Malcolm

P.S. Two Twenty has a 7 day £4.97 trial period.

Check it out here.

TJ Profit Finder system 7 maybe

March 20, 2015 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

I have a bit of a swollen finger this morning after my K9 pal “George” decided to run off while it was trapped in his lead.

My finger was not quite strong enough to hold 31kg without some damage.

I can bend it so I guess it us just muscle or tendon damage.

Your survive” my darling wife likes to tell me…

My fingers are important to me,..After all I make my living from using a keyboard….

Another thing that is really important to me is the TJ “Done for you” service.

I have a potential TJ system 7…

This one has performed well over the last couple of months and I am thinking it could be a new one for April.

I thought in this case I would leave it “open” for a week or so to

see how it performs.

Click Here to see the results and today’s selections.

TJ is up just over 28 points up so far this month.

Unlike the last couple of months we haven’t had any massive winners yet.

We have had 10, 11 and 12 priced winners just nothing in the 30’s to 50’s.

There is still time.

Thanks

Malcolm

TJ Profit Finder “Done for you”.

P.S. My plan is to be very hard with these systems and if they go

backwards over a 3 month period then they will be moved out of the main service.

System 3 is one that I am considering dropping next month.

It will stay in the service but moved off the main recommended systems.

5 tips to creating your own horse racing system part 2

August 29, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi
It’s Friday…
I have to repair some decking in the garden. It has lasted 8
years but some of the supports gave way this week. My wife nearly
disappeared down a big hole!
If you have been following the tests (click here to have a look)
then you may have seen that yesterday it had a 9.4, 7.56 and a
44.52 winner.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=84
After a difficult month these winners helped get the system back
into profit.
Following on from yesterday…”How to create your own horse
racing system”.
Tip 2.
Sample size.
If you take our own in house SPB System Builder database, then we
now have over 240,000 records.
But you have to remember that the moment you select a particular
race type that number can drop down to around 10000 records.
Throw in a few other filters and you can end up with a sample
size of 2 to 3000.
This isn’t that bad and it will give you a good indication of
how the system you are developing performs.
Where I think it can get difficult is when you get below sample
sizes of 200.
When you start delving into age groups or last time out you can
often end up with less than a 100.
And I think that is when you need to question if you have enough
data to warrant including the filter.
When developing systems it is easy to get carried a way with
trying to get rid of all the races that are giving a negative
figure but you should also consider that in 3 months time and
with more data you could find a completely different result.
Myself I prefer 300+  before I even consider using the
information to alter a system.
With sample size out of the way in the next part I want to talk
about some of the filters that I have found most useful when
creating systems.
If you choose them carefully they can make a difference to the
profitability of a system…
…You can see example of this if you have a quick look at Hurdle
system 1a
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/page.asp?id=103
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The Nerd” (actually I may change this to “Geek” it
sounds better!)
P.S. Don’t forget to check out all the testing including
“Elision”
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=90

Tip 2. Sample size.

If you take our own in house SPB System Builder database, then we now have over 240,000 records.

But you have to remember that the moment you select a particular race type that number can drop down to around 10000 records.

Throw in a few other filters and you can end up with a sample

size of 2 to 3000.

This isn’t that bad and it will give you a good indication of how the system you are developing performs.

Where I think it can get difficult is when you get below sample sizes of 200.

When you start delving into age groups or last time out you can often end up with less than a 100.

And I think that is when you need to question if you have enough data to warrant including the filter.

When developing systems it is easy to get carried a way with trying to get rid of all the races that are giving a negative figure but you should also consider that in 3 months time and with more data you could find a completely different result.

Myself I prefer 300+  before I even consider using the information to alter a system.

With sample size out of the way in the next part I want to talk about some of the filters that I have found most useful when creating systems.

If you choose them carefully they can make a difference to the profitability of a system…

You can see example of this if you have a quick look at Hurdle system 1a

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd” (actually I may change this to “Geek” it sounds better!)

P.S. Don’t forget to check out all the testing including “Elision”

5 tips to creating your own horse racing system part 1

August 29, 2014 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi

I thought I would write my own short version of “how to create
your own horse racing system”.

There are a few of these doing the rounds at the moment so I
guessed it was time to put my own “two pennies” worth in.

So at least if you are reading someone else’s you have another
reference from someone who has over 12 years of experience
creating them.

I could probably write a whole book on this subject but in this
short series I am going to give you my top 5 tips.

Tip 1: Get specific…The more specific the better.

At the very least you should deal with Flat, Hurdle, Chase, NHF
and AW as separate race types.

Systems do not often cross from one race type to another and even
when they do you will find they have very big swings in their fortunes.

A good example of this is system 5-2

This system (available to grey horse bot members) uses just about
all race types and as you can see it really has some major
swings…both ways.

If you stick with a specific race type you are more likely to
find something that works and it is less likely to be so dramatic.

Also by sticking with one race type your research time will
probably be reduced.

I generally suggest if you were just starting out that All  Weather(AW)
could be a good place to start because there are only 4 courses to learn
and the surfaces are similar (there are differences).

And although it is still a good place to look I am finding
that I have more success creating systems  based around “Hurdles”…

…Especially handicaps where I think it is easier to find value.

You do have to remember though that the further you drill down
and add filters to your system the fewer results you have to work with.

We will cover sample size in the next email.

But for now remember…get specific.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”.

P.S. I use the SPB System Builder to create my systems.
Check it out here:

P.S. Don’t forget you can follow along with all our “open
testing” here.