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How to profit from horse racing systems
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Daily Rambles are back…

July 16, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi

It’s been a long time since I did a daily email…

But because we are doing so much “open” testing now and I am
creating a lot more systems it seems appropriate to start up my
daily rambles again from Monday to Friday.

Yesterday I put up a new video about a system I had actually
talked about in another video (weird).

Anyway you can find out how I have “tweaked” it a little here.

Considering it has made over 70 points profit since I recorded
the first video it probably doesn’t really need playing around
with…but that’s me :-)

Testing Report up to:  15/07/2013

Just about all our tests can be viewed here.

New test for July.
10 flat trainers -48.58 (very disappointing so far)
Jockey Chase +4.15

The lay test 1

Level Stakes +31.88
10 point liability +128.42

Lay test 2
Level Stakes +25.2

10 point liability +109.86

Flat Six and Flat and AW trainers
Level Stakes +11.5

16 Jockeys to follow
Level Stake + 54.69

9 Trainers to follow
Level Stake -14.03

AW Favourite test 2
Level Stake +13.09

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
(A nerdy guy that does some weird stuff)
(Built a 3D printer and now a quadcopter…told you…nerdy)

Favourite saying is from dog obedience training…
”Reward the habit you want not the one you don’t.”

P.S. We are giving TJ PROFIT FINDER + as a bonus to new
SPB System Builder users this month.

Find out more here:

Please note the following:
These are “tests” and should be treated as such.
The above are the results from our “open” testing only.
All are based on 1point stakes unless otherwise stated.
All prices are to Betfair Starting Price and after 5% commission.
Test systems can be withdrawn at any time.

Dundalk All Weather Horse racing system

March 17, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

When I put together tutorials for SPB System Builder users on how to create profitable systems I try to stress how important it is to be specific.

Here is an example…

Although people to tend to bunch “All Weather” (AW) courses together, there are differences.

Southwell uses Fibresand where the other courses use Polytrack.

But even though most use polytrack this can still lead to different characteristics and speed.

The thing I really like about AW is that even if you just pick just one course to concentrate on…there will be plenty of meetings throughout the year to test your theories against.

There is one AW course people tend to forget and that is Dundalk in Ireland.

As Irelands only all weather course, it does tend to have at least one meeting per week, which makes it ideal to create a system for.

But being specific is not just about the course.

Form elements also play a role and the more you drill down and look at the runners the more likely you are to find a profitable system.

The Dundalk AW system is good example of this.

This system takes into account horse gender, Headgear, Age, claiming and the how well the horse performed last time out.

It also looks at the horse’s performance at the course and at the distance.

Dundalk mostly runs Wednesday, Thursday or Friday and because that is where most of the results come from, we stick with those days.

The problem with a horse racing betting system like this…is…that it will probably produce very few selections on a weekly basis.

Sometimes as little as one selection a week.

This puts many people off, which is a shame because when you are more specific about your runners the better chance you have of actually making profit.

The Dundalk AW system has had winners as high as 87.06.

Of course it doesn’t win every time but generally when it does it normally wins high.

So if you are NOT going to create your own system using a tool like the SPB System Builder

…Then it may be worth looking at a system like the Dundalk AW system.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

ups and downs of a One a day horse racing backing system

March 03, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

As a Betting system developer I am too a ware that when I tell someone about a new system I have developed that it will suddenly start losing.

Not always but it does happen.

So when I am get selections from someone else that have been doing well, although I still understand they can start losing I am hopeful they won’t.

So this story starts close to the beginning of February 2014.

This guy has been sending me his horse racing selections for months asking me to promote them for him.

Now after doing this for over 12 years I know I have to make people send me selections for quite a while.

Because if I am going to promote their racing selections I need to know they will stay the course.

I have to admit though that I was a little mean in this case and left this person hanging around for 5 odd months.

Anyway because he was so persistent I ended up putting together the results and sending them out to a couple of my lists where I know people like testing selections.

Up to the day I sent them out I had results going back to Sept 2nd 2013.

In that time the system  had just 6 losers.

So I was pretty confident that people were going to be amazed by the results.

I started sending them out on the 6th February 2014

Well it started good with 3 winners in a row then it had a NR then all hell let lose!

It went like this…

2 losers
1 winner
1 loser
1 winner
3 losers
1 winner
2 losers

As you can imagine this didn’t go down too well.

The guy sending me the selections got quite upset…some of my readers were upset…
…But I argued it was a live test and we should watch them for a bit longer.

What happened next?

We had 6 winners in a row including one at 3/1.

That was up to the end of racing on the 3rd of March 2014

Even with 9 total losers in February the system still finished 1 point up.

So although the start of the test was a little disappointing we may be seeing a turnaround.

Have a look for yourself here.

We may even still be doing the trial so you can follow along.

All systems…And I mean all systems have bad times. But it is the recovery that counts.

Let’s hope this one continues.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. You can also download all the results here.

What good are horse racing ratings anyway?

February 24, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

What good are horse racing ratings anyway?
It’s a good question and up until a couple of years ago I would have probably argued against them.
Until I started creating my own that is.
But still the question remains why use them and how good are they really?
Well the number one reason for using them is that they can either validate what you are seeing on the market or they can be used to find a horse that others may be missing.
“How good” will depend on the information used to create the ratings.
Up until last week I had created two different ones myself over the last 2 years.
Both are being used in the SPB System Builder and both have helped produce some interesting systems.
Just check out system 5-2 hurdle.
Each rating system was developed differently and using totally different information.
But both have been useful in identifying possible systems.
As I wrote in an article the other day I have been thinking for some time about another idea for a horse racing rating system.
On Friday I finally decided that I would sit down and write the code to create the ratings.
So here is the thinking behind the new ratings…
1. I wanted to build up a % chance of a horse winning a race based on its past form.
2. I wanted to recalculate the ratings daily so they took into account the new information from the results from the day before.
3. I wanted to use 10 or more form indicators to create the ratings.
I also decided that I was going to work out all percentages based on the total number of records that we have in our most detailed database.
At the time of writing this contained 156,502 runners since the 11/10/2012.
And this number increases everyday.
First step was to decide on what form elements I would use.
I came up with 14 different pieces of information I would analyse from the age of the horse to how well the Jockey and Trainer were doing.
As example…
Runners that came 1st Last time out (LTO) had about a 2% chance of winning again.
(Note: I do understand this is a simplistic view in some ways because you could argue that a runner that came 1st on it’s last 2 runs probably has less chance of winning again than a runner that has only won once before. That could be for a future update.)

Second step was to create the code to create the ratings.
Third step was to rate every horse in every race.
By Saturday morning (22/02/2014) I had completed all the code and run the ratings.
(I have since added the results in.)
So how can you use the ratings?
The first mistake people make with ratings is to think that the top rated runner should be the one to win every race.
That’s just not the case.
You will probably find that in most cases it will be ranked in the top 7 or 8 and often in the top 3 which validates that your ratings are pointing you in the right direction.
What you will often find though is that the ratings are very close between many runners in a race.
So what you should be looking for is where the top rated runner is clear by 2, 3 or even more points and is still in the running.
Over time you will probably be able to create a clear understanding of how you can use the ratings to help you find winners (or even losers).
I have used the above idea before and this is how it looks using our new ratings.
How else can you use the horse racing ratings.
Well they can be very handy when you are looking for races where the chances of a horse winning is not as clear cut as the odds suggest.
Or if you want help deciding between two runners.
Sometimes you may even find that your 3rd, 4th or 5th rated runners win often enough at reasonably good prices to return a profit.
Once you have ratings it is then a case of analyzing the results to see what surprises they hold.
That is why when I created these latest one I immediately gave uses a way to analyse them so that they could start running their own tests.

I am not sure how these ratings will work out but I think they are probably the most detailed I have created to date.
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm

When to stop testing your betting systems

February 05, 2014 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

I was listening to Michael talk to Darren power a couple of weeks a go about racing in general.
Darren asked Michael about testing.
His question was…
“How long Michael gives a system before he determines if it is a success or failure.”
Michael’s answer was 6 months or more.
And I would agree I often test systems for months.
But people like myself, Michael and even Darren are lucky because we do this for a living so our resources can be a lot better than dare I say it…”The average punter”.
Sometimes though the problem with testing a system is not if it is working or not.
But when do you take it out of testing and use as part of your proper betting portfolio.
Because we do so much testing ourselves we generally just wait until a system has performed well for 6 months or more and then decide by it’s performance what to do next.
Well that’s how we used to do it.
Now we are becoming more auto regulating.
Firstly we analyse the system.
We make sure we understand fully the strike rate and longest possible losing runs.
This gives us the information we need decide on a stake size and our stop loss.
So we set each test up knowing that the stake size will let us live through any predicted losing run but if the system really does go wrong then our stop loss will handle it.
See some of our current tests here.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=64
I suppose the above isn’t anything new and should be common practice for anyone who uses systems.
But I said that our test, are self regulating.
We have now started to set all our tests up as a % of current bank.
This should work for most systems.
Its main drawback is recovering from losses.
A fixed stake will return losses far quicker but then you will probably lose more, more quickly than when using a % of bank stake.
Using a % of bank means that your stake will fluctuate up and down based on the fortunes of the system.
But it also means if the system continues to do well then you will take advantage by gradually increasing your stake.
If your bank has increased and your stake then you may want to consider adjusting your stop loss compared to the current situation.
The grey horse bot also allows us to base our stop loss on a % of current bank so this saves us having to adjust this figure as well.
The only question you now have to answer is…
“What size bank do you start the test with?”
But once we figured that out if the systems works and continues to do well then everything will grow anyway.
If things go wrong at anytime our Grey Horse Bots stop automatically and then we can analyse the results.
It also means you can start with a small bank and stake.
Check out some of our testing here.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=64
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The System Mason”
I have pondered on Darrens question to Michael for a couple of weeks and at the time I would have agreed with Michael but after I showed my own long term testing in video it dawned on me ther

I was listening to Michael (puntology) talk to Darren power a couple of weeks a go about horse racing betting systems in general.

Darren asked Michael about testing.

His question was…

“How long Michael gives a betting system before he determines if it is a success or failure.”

Michael’s answer was 6 months or more.

And I would agree I often test systems for months.

But people like myself, Michael and even Darren are lucky because we do this for a living so our resources can be a lot better than dare I say it…”The average punter”.

Sometimes though the problem with testing a betting system is not if it is working or not.

But when do you take it out of testing and use it as part of your proper betting portfolio.

Because we do so much testing ourselves we generally just wait until a system has performed well for 6 months or more and then decide by it’s performance what to do next.

Well that’s how we used to do it.

Now we are becoming more auto regulating.

Firstly we analyse the system.

We make sure we understand fully the strike rate and longest possible losing runs.

This gives us the information we need decide on a stake size and our stop loss.

So we set each test up knowing that the stake size will let us live through any predicted losing run but if the system really does go wrong then our stop loss will handle it.

See some of our current tests here.

I suppose the above isn’t anything new and should be common practice for anyone who uses systems.

But I said that our test, are self regulating.

We have now started to set all our tests up as a % of current bank.

This should work for most systems.

Its main drawback is recovering from losses.

A fixed stake will return losses far quicker but then you will probably lose more, more quickly than when using a % of bank stake.

Using a % of bank means that your stake will fluctuate up and down based on the fortunes of the system.

But it also means if the system continues to do well then you will take advantage by gradually increasing your stake.

If your bank has increased and your stake then you may want to consider adjusting your stop loss compared to the current situation.

The grey horse bot also allows us to base our stop loss on a % of current bank so this saves us having to adjust this figure as well.

The only question you now have to answer is…

“What size bank do you start the test with?”

But once we figured that out if the systems works and continues to do well then everything will grow anyway.

If things go wrong at anytime our Grey Horse Bots stop automatically and then we can analyse the results.

It also means you can start with a small bank and stake.

Check out some of our testing here.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

Staking for an All Weather System

January 24, 2014 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

Hi

You have probably heard this 100 times before but I think it is worth repeating…

“Don’t stake too much at one time!”

I don’t like using exclamation marks myself but this one is used to shout out to you that this is important.

Let me give you a live example…

I am not sure if you remember but late last year I mentioned that I had created a piece of software for Steve at Winning More.

In an exchange for a link to Grey Horse Bot the software would allow his customers to download the selections automatically.

Well when I mentioned it to you the system was around the 220 point mark which at the time I mentioned was pretty good.

On a routine check of the software and results yesterday I noticed it was now up to 247 after another 18.72 winner yesterday.

Great…but wait…

Did you check to stop and look at the losing runs?

Some of the advice on staking that I see is ridiculous and even dam right dangerous.

If you look at the last losing run on this system you will count 13.

It actually happened over the last few days.

So some people say use 10% of your bank as a stake…

If you had done that with this system where would you be?

Yep “I just lost the shirt off my back” Street.

In fact you probably would have got to somewhere between 30% and 60 % losses and given up.

Back systems always have losing runs no matter how good they are.

Steve’s AW system has a strike rate of around 17.69%

Take a look at this chart here…

This simple tool allows you to check your expected longest losing run based on the strike rate.

Just enter 66 / 373 (stats at the bottom of Steve’s results).

Now I bet that makes you think.

This tells you… At this strike you can expect to see a losing run into the 30 or 40’s.

Who knows if it will happen.

But what it is telling you is that you really don’t want to be using 10% of your bank.

In fact I often take the highest figure from the chart and then double it to be sure.

What this tells me is really you should be using closer to 1% of your bank as your stake.

( 44 x 2 = 88 round up to 90
200 (your bank)  / 90 = 2.22
Around £2 or 1% of your bank)

So a £200 bank you should use just £2 as your stake.

When I normally mention this someone will say…”That won’t make me a fortune?”

Nope it won’t but nor will losing your bank everytime you try out a system.

Anyway just use 1% of your bank all the time and then as your bank increases or decreases your stakes will go up and down accordingly.

There is one other small point to make.

Staking also has a psychological (big word for me) part to it.

In the “cold light of day” (what Malcolm)…

You probably wouldn’t continue to follow a system until you lost your whole betting bank anyway.

In fact you would probably stop before you lost half of it.

You will know your limits…So make sure you set a stake  that will keep you well within them.

That’s the only way you get to follow a system like Steve’s and survive the losing runs.

Find out more about the Steve’s AW system here

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

December 02, 2013 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi

Sometimes it is easier for someone else to handle things for you than do everything yourself.

An example is that I came up with the hurdle system 3 a while ago but last week I took a good look at it and made some improvements which could make it even more profitable.

So I spoke to David over at Acenaps who had recently improved his site and asked him if would host the selections.

Click Here to find out more…

It seemed a good fit for his site especially as his systems are similar to the Hurdle 3 system.

I will admit that I am always concerned about mentioning his site because I did get him on the net and his site is hosted on our servers…but…

…It saved me a lot of work and it gave him a 3rd system.

His other 2 systems are quite interesting.

I haven’t tested his selections for a while so after looking through the results I started again on Saturday.

As often with these things I have started off with some losers on system 2 but his system 1 gave me a little profit…

…He had 3 selections in one race on Saturday and one came in at 4.53.

If you’re interested he does have a £1 trial for the first 7 days (that’s all I will say).

As always if you are Grey Horse Bot member then the Hurdle 3 (improved) system will be available for you shortly.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. If the above doesn’t interest you maybe this will.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=60

P.P.S. You can see how I improved the Hurdle 3 system here:

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/spb-sb-1.asp

AW All weather Jockey and Trainers

October 24, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi
Whenever someone asks me the question “How should I start creating my own betting systems” I always advise “Get specific”.
The thing is when you are starting out there is a lot to take in, not only because of all the different types of races but also courses, jockeys, trainers, form and the list goes on.
My first suggestion is always to “cut down the clutter”.
Whether that means to only use certain type of races like “Handicap” or “Maidens” (Neither really my first choice for beginners) or stick to a certain race distance or even course.
People often say things like “But isn’t following xxx…difficult?
It doesn’t matter what you follow there are going to be challenges but I guess at the end of the day people want to start “now” and have plenty of choice.
So suggesting one course or one Jockey is sometimes not enough.
That is why I often suggest starting with Aw (All Weather) races.
The reasons for this are…
You only have 4 or 5 courses to learn about.
Although the surfaces are not exactly the same there are similar.
Although you may not have races everyday they do appear on the racecard most days.
There are disadvantages as well.
The class of racing can be pretty low sometimes.
It is difficult to use turf form on sand.
There are still differences between the AW courses and surfaces.
But the above can be true of many types of racing.
Concentrating on AW will teach you a lot without having to study a new course nearly everyday.
What I want to do is here is show you how you can quickly find profitable ways to use AW courses.
There has been a lot written about Trainer / Jockey stats and to be honest I have never taken much notice of them.
Maybe in hindsight this was a little foolish but to be honest they have never excited me much…
…That was until I added them into the SPB System Builder.
Now I have found that I have missed out on a very simple way to identify the chance of being on a winning horse.
I did a quick video to explain what I mean.
I hope you found the video interesting.
As I mentioned there are still a couple of places left if you have been thinking of coming to my seminar in Swindon…
Click Here to find out more.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/page.asp?id=79
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The System Mason”

Hi

Whenever someone asks me the question “How should I start creating my own betting systems” I always advise “Get specific”.

The thing is when you are starting out there is a lot to take in, not only because of all the different types of races but also courses, jockeys, trainers, form and the list goes on.

My first suggestion is always to “cut down the clutter”.

Whether that means to only use certain type of races like “Handicap” or “Maidens” (Neither really my first choice for beginners) or stick to a certain race distance or even course.

People often say things like “But isn’t following xxx…difficult?

It doesn’t matter what you follow there are going to be challenges but I guess at the end of the day people want to start “now” and have plenty of choice.

So suggesting one course or one Jockey is sometimes not enough.

That is why I often suggest starting with Aw (All Weather) races.

The reasons for this are…

You only have 4 or 5 courses to learn about.

Although the surfaces are not exactly the same there are similar.

Although you may not have races everyday they do appear on the racecard most days.

There are disadvantages as well.

The class of racing can be pretty low sometimes.

It is difficult to use turf form on sand.

There are still differences between the AW courses and surfaces.

But the above can be true of many types of racing.

Concentrating on AW will teach you a lot without having to study a new course nearly everyday.

What I want to do is here is show you how you can quickly find profitable ways to use AW courses.

There has been a lot written about Trainer / Jockey stats and to be honest I have never taken much notice of them.

Maybe in hindsight this was a little foolish but to be honest they have never excited me much…

…That was until I added them into the SPB System Builder.

Now I have found that I have missed out on a very simple way to identify the chance of being on a winning horse.

I did a quick video to explain what I mean.

AW System

I hope you found the video interesting.

As I mentioned there are still a couple of places left if you have been thinking of coming to my seminar in Swindon…

Click Here to find out more.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

“The System Mason”

Time to stop using your flat systems?

September 19, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles

As you are probably aware the flat season is coming to close.

The question I often get asked is when should you stop using your
flat systems?

I mean in theory you could go to the end of the season couldn’t you?

In theory you could…

…But I think you would be unwise to do so, especially as near
the end of the season things seem to get a little unpredictable.

Over the years I have often mentioned this but without really
being able to show what I mean.

But now I have the SPB System Builder I can give you some
visuals.

Here are the screen shots of 3 flat systems that have done pretty
well all summer…

What do they have in common?

They are all suffering at the end of the season.

The last month has been pretty difficult and for me that signals
that it is now time to say “good night” to the flat systems
and start looking at the jump races.

In fact next year I am defiantly going to finish my flat season a
month earlier than everyone else!

Now days there are Hurdle and Chases races all year and although
the going is likely to be different during the winter season you
should be able to use some of the insight you have gained
following these races over the summer.

If you dissected system 5-2 to its 3 main parts…

Flat 192 points
Hurdle 194 points (A 56 winner yesterday)
Chase 200 points

Then you can see they have all been pretty equal except the flat
system has lost over 200 points in the last 45 days!

I don’t have to continue betting live anyway because the SPB
System Builder
will tell me the results from now on.

This is another reason I always say you should not mix race types
because it can be harder to spot what’s happening.

In this case we were able to easily split the 3 types of racing
and analyse each one individually.

So next year you can start the flat season off with a bang,
having a good idea where you may find some profit.

Now for the NH season :)

But remember it may take a month or so to get going so still be careful.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

P.S. The Irish system I gave away earlier this month is still doing well.

You may want it out here.

I can sometimes get it wrong…

May 06, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles

Not this time…

What am I going on about?

Well just stay with me because it’s important you get the whole
story…

At the beginning of January I put a video together which talked
about looking at following a system over a year.

But before you look at the video it’s worth knowing some background
information.

See I was trying to show  that the way we look at following systems is
all wrong.

Many of us have developed a really short term view, when really we
need to look longer term.

How much longer?

Well I will leave that for the video because it explains it in
context.

We have this system called “the7system” which last year(2012) made
over 230 points profit.

But it had a lot of up’s and down’s.


And you will see it is still having “up’s” and “down’s” and that’s
the point I made in the video.

It doesn’t matter how much you wish you could get your hands on a
system or selections that just go up all the time…it is very
unlikely that you will.

But that does not mean you cannot make profit.

Anyway the video will explain this better.


It’s the big priced winners that count with this system and over the
last 3 days it has had wins at 11, 11, 12 and a 15.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. By the way I know for a fact that many of the people that
started following the system at the beginning…are not now.

Even after I showed them, how to set up their stake so they could get

the most from the system and get through the difficult times…