Horse Racing Systems UK

I am about to have a few days off to celebrate my birthday and just generally do nothing!

We actually had a full winning day with Yankee on Tuesday which put us back into profit after a pretty bad run.

http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/yankee-results.xls

Yesterday we ended up with only one selection but it won so we made some profit.

The Yankee and Lucky 15 are both “neck and neck” as far as profit is concerned although many bookies (Like Paddy Power) offer a 10% bonus for all winners on a Lucky 15 and if that is the case then the Lucky 15 would be about £8 ahead of the Yankee.

As the cold weather seems to be coming in we will probably see more NR’s which means it is not the best time to test but we may as well see how it goes for another couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

And this
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/mrs/

It’s Friday.

I am going to try and read a lot this weekend (after a few hours wall with the dogs).  One of my other passions is training dogs and as I now train obedience (not the best word to use as really I tend to end up training the owners) I have brought loads of books from different authors to see how other people train.

Well it’s not been a good week for the Yankee and we find ourselves in a negative situation again, talk about the Yo-Yo effect!

http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/yankee-results.xls

I will run them for a couple of more weeks to see what happens but I must admit I was hoping for a bit of profit at least.

I have also been experimenting with betting  each-way on paddy power but I have never really liked using the bookies for this type of bet. I think if it worked it would be better to just place the selections on the exchanges, which is what I am going to try.

Grey Horse Bot and GHBLite users have been testing a new lay system (well a new and improved) which at the moment seems to being to very well.

We have only had one week of testing so far but the signs are very good and you can see the results here.

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/mtlresults.xls

As you can see we are very quickly increasing our bank even when we keep the odds under control.

You can also see from the spreadsheet that there are a couple of selections in there that went over 70, when you consider that all these selections are less than 8/1 in the morning paper it sure is strange to see them go out by such are large amount.

Taking out the two high priced selections (which I think is fair) the average price we are seeing is around the 13 mark which still shows there is a big difference between the paper prices and the exchange prices but it some ways we should expect that because we are identifying horses that shouldn’t win.

If we used a maximum lay price of 12 then since the test began (which is only just over a week ago) we have made just over 12pts profit after % commission.  If you stretched your odds to 20 (a bit risky that would be nearly 20pts).

A better way would be to use a fixed maximum liability at the higher odds. If we had a bank of £500 and used just 10% as our liability (£50) and used the 10% reduction factor rule our bank would now stand at almost £600 after 1 week of selections.

You can pick up the selections in the members area of Grey Horse Bot or GHBLite along with several other bonus selections.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

And this
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/mrs/

A quick update on the Yankee/Lucky15 selections…

We had 3 winners on Friday and another 3 on Saturday.
You can see the results here.
http://selections4profit.com/wptip/csv/yankee.csv

The winning odds over both days were not that good but it has put us back into profit for the time being.

It’s also put us back into profit using level stakes. So far our longest losing run is 5 and the average odds are around evens.

Still a long way to go to see if the betting system is going to be as profitable as we hope but again it does show the tipster can pick winners.

Actually I wanted to expand on that because I did receive one email that basically said “anyone can pick short priced winners” I actually think this statement is crap because I don’t think many people can, not at an average of close to evens anyway.

If you think you can your quite welcome to prove me wrong by either putting your selections in the forum
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/forum/

Or if you are really brave you can trial them to Grey Horse Bot members for a month or two and if you can prove me wrong then I will either promote your site if you have one, or help you set up a new site if you haven’t!
http://tipsterinabox.com/page.asp?id=10

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

And this
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/mrs/

It’s Friday

I am not sure what I am doing this weekend. I suppose I should be planning what to do on my 50^th Birthday next month.

We are picking up the Caravan shortly although I haven’t quite got the deposit I was hoping for (don’t forget my offer http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/) but I am getting there.

As a second offer to try and help me get a good deposit I have dropped the price of my ratings system by £20 for the first 10 people who go for it.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/mrs/

It’s now almost half its normal price so you better be quick because I am always careful about selling to many of these.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/mrs/

Sorry I haven’t reported on the Yankee results for nearly a week but I have been working on a new project which is taken up far much more time than I was expecting.

To be honest at the moment we are just fluctuating between losing and winning and are not really going in any direction!

You can see the results here.
http://selections4profit.com/wptip/csv/yankee.csv

I am still leaning towards the Lucky 15 rather than the Yankee although at the moment they are both losing about the same amount.

It’s always a little disappointing when you start a test like this and don’t really see a profit but I still think there may be something here and we just need a bit more time.

I think we can tell that my friends ability to pick winners is not that bad and we have had a lot of 2^nd places which shows he is not far of the mark a most of the time.

And we have had a couple of good winning days, we could just do with a few more!

As always all we can do is keep watching and see what happens.

Hopefully next week I will get the time to re-start my creating your own betting systems “tips” course because I would really like to share some more info with you.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

Does the cold weather effect horse racing?

It’s a good question and it’s one I have thought about a lot in fact even this morning when I was out walking my dog.

Before I left the car I noted that the thermometer was reading -4.5 and I was contemplating putting Georges coat on but he was raring to get going so off he went.

Me I have a thermal layer on plus the jumper and warm coat and I can still feel the cold but I know I will warm up shortly.

George is asking me to throw his ball and seems to have more energy than normal and when he follows his ball into the stream and starts playing around in the water you begin to realize that a dog (or animals) definition of being cold is totally different to ours (or mine).

So what’s this got to do with whether the weather effects horse racing.

Well a horse is an animal just like a dog and probably doesn’t get effected by the cold very much (although there are always exceptions) but Jockeys are human which means it could effect some of them especially when your flying along on top of a horse into the cold.

But I suppose really it’s the ground and how hard it is getting because of the cold that makes the real difference.

It’s probably the surface that effects racing more than anything else and I would have thought that even the sand used on AW’s surfaces (All weather) could have a slightly different feel at extreme temperatures.

How much the cold weather will effect the outcome of any race is probably hard to judge but with a bit of digging you can probably find horses that prefer the harder ground and those that don’t.

Look out for horses that seem to traditionally do better in the winter months.

Last year we had quite extreme cold so there could be some runners that stood out and are running again this year.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

This is an update to the yankee selections that we started looking at on Monday.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/index.php/2012/01/09/a-yankee-or-lucky-15-you-decide/

I am going to show the results if you bet using the Yankee method or the Lucky 15 so we can see which version will give the best returns.

If you want to check the results yourself you can use this site here http://www.bettingcalculator.co.uk/

I am going to base the results on a £1 per bet stake which means the Yankee will cost you £11 and the Lucky15 will cost you £15.

Please remember this is a test and that if you decide to follow the selections you should use minimal stakes,  most bookies will allow you place bets as low as 10p.

Monday 9th
All 4 Selections lost although 3 of them were placed.
Yankee return: £0.00 (-£11.00)
Lucky 15 return: £0.00 (-£15.00)

Tuesday 10th
A Great day today with 3 winners one at 6/1 and one at 1/6!
Yankee return: £46.96 (£35.96)
Lucky 15: £57.50 (£42.50)

Wednesday 11th
We had one winner to day
Yankee return: £0.00 (-£11.00)
Lucky 15: £3.25 (-£11.75)

Thursday 12th
We had two winners today

Yankee return: £7.31 (-£5.27)
Lucky 15: £12.81 (-£4.31

So after 4 days the p/l (profit and loss) stands at…
Yankee: £8.69
Lucky 15 £11.44

It’s quite interesting to see the difference between the Yankee and Lucky 15 results and on the performance of the selections so far, (See Sean’s comments) I think the added accumulator with the Lucky 15 pays off.

I will have also put together a results spreadsheet for those that just want to see the selections are performing individually.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/yankee-results.xls

interestingly even at level stakes the selections are showing a profit due mainly to the 6/1 winner on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

I mention Paddy Power because they are my favourite on-line bookie and I wanted to show you how you can use their site to place your bet.

Once you have 4 runners added to your bet slip Paddy Powerwill then show you the Yankee and Lucky 15 bet options.

Hi There

I mentioned that I had been talking with a friend last year who has been doing well with placing Yankee type bets with the bookies.

He told me that it all came about when he was trying to work on a back system for a while and he found that although he would nearly always get one or two winners from 4 or 5 selections he could never get the last part of the system right so that he could pick just that one winner a day.

Like myself he had never placed anything but win bets and it was only when he had come across an article about Yankees that he thought this may be a way of getting the most out of his selections and was sure he could pick 4 good selections a day.

When researching Yankees I also came across many people saying that a good alternative was a Lucky 15 and many people preferred them because although it is a slightly more expensive bet  you often only had to win once to make a profit but with a Yankee you really needed two winners.

So what is a Yankee and Lucky 15 bet.

A Yankee is made up of 4 doubles, 6 trebles and 1 accumulator the lucky 15 adds 4 single bets as well.

I am not going to go into the maths about how each bets works because one it needs diagrams to explain it and two there are plenty of calculators out there to show you your return.

Paddy Power have one of their own here.

http://betcalculator.paddypower.com/index.php?bet=Yankee&number=5

I mention Paddy Power because they are my favourite on-line bookie and I wanted to show you how you can use their site to place your bet.

Just a quick note…

If you place your bet early in the morning then you probably won’t see the odds available for each of your 4 choices so you will have to select SP on some of them.  You will not be able to use the betting calculator to work out your return.

Most horses have prices after 10am so you may want to wait.

Select each of the 4 runners you want to use in your Yankee (Lucky 15) and add them to your Betting Slip.

Once you have 4 runners added to your bet slip PaddyPower will then show you the Yankee and Lucky 15 bet options.

All you have to do now is put your stake amount in either the Yankee of Lucky 15 boxes.

As you can see a Yankee is 11 bets altogether so a £1 stake will cost me £11.00, the Lucky 15 is 15 bets and would cost £15.
You can put much smaller stakes on Paddy Power.

So what about the return?

Well if we put the odds that are available into the Calculator.

http://betcalculator.paddypower.com/index.php?bet=Yankee&number=5

You would be very lucky to win on all 4 but even if you get a couple of wins at reasonable odds you should get a return.

Going back to the reason for writing this article…

My friend said he will share the selection with you for a couple of weeks to see what you think.

To get the selections simply click the link below around 10am everyday and you will be able to download the selections.

http://selections4profit.com/wptip/csv/yankee.csv

I will post the daily results on this website over the next couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

Hi There

A happy New Year

I decided to take a rest in the end over the holiday and not do anything!

Do I feel guilty?

Not really it was great to rest and take the dogs on some long walks. I started exploring the Ridgeway which you can get to from Barbury Castle at Wroughton in Wiltshire.

I haven’t quite walked to Avebury yet, but I am working up to it.

Now I am going to admit something that I haven’t told many people (well not that many)…

I am 50 this year.

Yep in Februrary I hit the big FIVE ZERO (50).

Now those of you who have met me personally no that I am a very young 50 and still play around like I am in my teens (Yes I was playing Batman on my Xbox 360 over Christmas) and because of my walking with the dogs and running at Agility I am still pretty fit (well at least I think I am).

But I decided to get a Caravan…

Ok I am not saying you have to be in your 50’s to own a Caravan but it helps (only kidding).

Anyway I decided to treat myself for my birthday and so I have committed myself to a brand new one (yep fool) which I got at a very, very good price.

So I thought I could celebrate my upcoming Birthday and also to try and get the deposit raised for the Caravan, by putting together some really great deals, in the hope that you would think they were so good, you would to take me up on one or two of them.

Well I thought that this will probably get a little crazy and for that reason lets start off with my Crazy sale, which was an offer I put out early last year.

I have dropped the price right down for this year.

You can check it out here

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

These offers are going to be short and sweat and limited so check them out as quick as you can.

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

If you need some great systems to work with then this is the first place you should look.

On another note I hope to be giving you some great content this year including the Yankee system I told you about last year and some more tips on creating your own system.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Don’t forget to check out the Crazy offer because it really is….Crazy!

http://cyobs.co.uk/crazy/

Today I want to talk about LTO (Last Time Out).

There are normally around 6 figures (not all numbers) to the right of a horse’s name which we read from right to left.

An example may be 263534

This tells us that this runner came 4th last time it ran, 3rd the time before and 5th the time before that and so on.

You will often find dashes, slashes and letter like P (being pulled) as well which tell you different things about it’s past
form.

You will also find another number at the end of the horse’s name which tells you when the horse last ran.

If you click on the horse’s name (on-line) then you will normally be taken to a screen which gives you all the horses past form.

So how do we use this information?

Well first of all you want to know how the horse is performing now, not 12 months ago and although there are horses  that seem to perform well after a break, most need to get back into this stride so anything past 60 days should be considered old information.

I much prefer it if a horse has run at least within the last 30 days before deciding if its form is relevant or not and this is when things can get tricky, especially when we go into new seasons.

The other thing you want to be aware of is not just your runners past form but also every other runner’s form as well.

I know some systems that omit races where 2 or more runners have not raced within 30 days.

You also need to be aware of how the horse has been performing recently.

I would be aware of the “P” pulled. Many see this as a sign of weakness but in my experience it doesn’t mean a lot.

The one thing you should look out for is a progressive improvement because this could show a horse finding its form and looking for the win.

Although some trainers are a little devious others are just trying to win and so getting better with every run, is a sure sign they are going in the right direction.

Should you back a LTO winner to win again?

Actually the stats are not that good somewhere around a 3rd of horses win again and normally this figure is slightly  higher if they are running again within 30 days.

In fact BF (Beaten Favourites) tend to have an even better chance of winning their next race!

So when you are creating your own rating systems remember to give a score for the “days since last run” and recent  form and you really need to consider if you are going to take on a race card where a number of runners have not races  recently.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/

P.S. Don’t forget The Champion Lays is now open.
http://www.ozmediauk.com/idevaffiliate/idevaffiliate.php?id=1534_8

Hi There

I mentioned last week that I would be talking about some of the tricks I use to create betting systems, so here is the first in the series.

We often talk about tipsters (professional or otherwise) and how good they are.

When you look at the racing post tipster table you can see quite clearly that when they are put on the spot and asked to name one good horse a day, many are unable to deliver any profit at all.

Even the ones that do show a profit they are often lucky because they have happened to tip one or two outsiders that take them into profit.

So the question is should we take notice of tipsters or not?

Well let me share my feelings about it and then you can decide if you agree with what I am saying or not.

I have mentioned before that I am a fan of using the Daily Mail to come up with systems but it doesn’t matter what site or paper you use there will probably be resident tipsters who’s  job it is to give you tips on the racing everyday.

The Daily Mail has Robin Goodfellow and Gimcrack as their main two and then Newmarket and Northerner who are more picky about their selections so don’t tip as often.

Knowing who they are, is the first step in deciding whether they will influence your decision or not.

In the years I have been creating my own systems one thing I have learned is that tipsters always cause uncertainty and when I am a creating a lay system, I almost always include a rule that says “if the horse is tipped by any of the main tipsters then it is not a selection”.

This of course makes it almost impossible to create a system that follows favourites!

It also helps me when creating a backing system especially if two or more are selecting the same runner, but I must stress they do not influence my final decision in anyway, but I suppose you could say that I do give them the “Benefit of the doubt”.

I think they probably influence my lay systems more than they do my backing systems just because I have learned in the past that if I ignore what they say totally, then I tend to have more losers but strangely enough I have never been able to use their help to create a really profitable backing system.

Weird!

At the end of the day of the day you will have to decide how tipsters influence your decision as I said in the case of the Daily Mail they certainly influence my decision but more because of the damage they could cause rather than the help they can give selecting a winner.

Thanks for reading

Malcolm
“The system Mason”

http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/