Please note the following: These are “tests” and should be treated as such. The above are the results from our “open” testing only. All are based on 1point stakes unless otherwise stated. All prices are to Betfair Starting Price and after 5% commission. Test systems can be withdrawn at any time.
Each rating system was developed differently and using totally different information.
But both have been useful in identifying possible systems.
As I wrote in an article the other day I have been thinking for some time about another idea for a horse racing rating system.
On Friday I finally decided that I would sit down and write the code to create the ratings.
So here is the thinking behind the new ratings…
1. I wanted to build up a % chance of a horse winning a race based on its past form.
2. I wanted to recalculate the ratings daily so they took into account the new information from the results from the day before.
3. I wanted to use 10 or more form indicators to create the ratings.
I also decided that I was going to work out all percentages based on the total number of records that we have in our most detailed database.
At the time of writing this contained 156,502 runners since the 11/10/2012.
And this number increases everyday.
First step was to decide on what form elements I would use.
I came up with 14 different pieces of information I would analyse from the age of the horse to how well the Jockey and Trainer were doing.
Runners that came 1st Last time out (LTO) had about a 2% chance of winning again.
(Note: I do understand this is a simplistic view in some ways because you could argue that a runner that came 1st on it’s last 2 runs probably has less chance of winning again than a runner that has only won once before. That could be for a future update.)
Second step was to create the code to create the ratings.
Third step was to rate every horse in every race.
By Saturday morning (22/02/2014) I had completed all the code and run the ratings.
The last month has been pretty difficult and for me that signals that it is now time to say “good night” to the flat systems and start looking at the jump races.
In fact next year I am defiantly going to finish my flat season a month earlier than everyone else!
Now days there are Hurdle and Chases races all year and although the going is likely to be different during the winter season you should be able to use some of the insight you have gained following these races over the summer.