Sorry about Monday and how short my email was. It has been a manic week for me this week, with one thing and another and a short one, because I have to have a day off on Friday. So I doubt if you will hear anything else from me this week.

In my last few entries we have talked about how to check to see if your system is profitable.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/

In this email I want to look at Required Strike Rare (RSR) We need to know if our average winning odds will return a profit, after we take into account the losers.

There are 2 important pieces of information you will need to have for you to be able to work out if your system has a chance of being profitable long term.

1.    Strike rate
2.    Average Odds

With these two pieces of information you can generally work out if you will make profit over time.

The real key though is the amount of race data you have to work with. Let us say you have a lay system and you have 100 past races to work with. Simply count up the times you won and divide it by 100.

So if you have won 80 times then:
80/100 = 0.8 (or 80%)

Now you know your strike rate you need to get your average odds. The best way to do this is to add all the odds together of all the losers (Make sure they are in decimal and you minus 1 first, if you are using Betfair odds.) and then divide the total by the number of losers.

If we added up all our odds and they came to 350.

200 / 20 (Losing races) = 10.00 that means our average losing odds are 10.00.
You can probably check this by having a look at the results. You should find some of the odds are under this figure and others over.

Now we have this information we can work out if you are likely to make profit from the selections.

As this is a lay system we know every time we win we make 1pt (less commission) and everytime we lose, it is the (odds-1) multiplied by our stake.

We know we won 80 times so we have made 80pts (less commission). And we know our average losing odds are 10 and we have lost 20 times, so in this case we would be in big trouble!

20 x 10 = 200
80 -200 = -120pts

We can see already we have to either get the strike rate up or the average losing odds down to make it a profitable system.

In reality with a lay system you earn 0.95 pts for every winner so…
80 x 0.95 = 76pts profit.
If we now take 76 and divide this by our losers.
76/20 = 3.35 we now have a break even average odds.

If we want to make any money we need our average losing odds to be under 3.35.

One other thing to remember is that 100 races is probably not enough data to get an accurate prediction, but it should put you on the right track.

If you are an http://www.cyobs.co.uk member then you have a calculator that already works this out for you and I am having a more advanced one programmed at the moment.

Make a Living update.

There is no doubt it has been a bit of an up and down couple of weeks for this system but saying that it is still showing a profit good profit using the 1pt on the lay and 0.5pts on the back.

Using the GHB and the above staking plan along with a maximum lay price of 25 since the 16th of October when we started using the bot we have made 31.16 pts after 5% commission and since the 1st of November 14.6 pts.

Using this method we have also missed a few lays but still ended up getting the backs which meant we lost on that race altogether.
During that time using this method we have suffered 6 losing days.

30/10/2009    -16.55
06/11/2009    -4.18
07/11/2009    -1.03
09/11/2009    -6.63
10/11/2009    -0.22
14/11/2009    -3.11
A total loss of 31.72 points but we are still up 31pts. There is no doubt that November has not been the best month this system has produced but you couldn’t call 14.6pts a disaster either.

I can only leave the tips page up for a couple of more days and then it will be deleted.
http://www.selections4profit.co.uk/externtips.asp
There are only a few of those 50 places left.

As I mentioned at the start I have to be out on Friday so you will not here from me again until Monday.

Thanks for reading
Malcolm