Please note the following: These are “tests” and should be treated as such. The above are the results from our “open” testing only. All are based on 1point stakes unless otherwise stated. All prices are to Betfair Starting Price and after 5% commission. Test systems can be withdrawn at any time.
Each rating system was developed differently and using totally different information.
But both have been useful in identifying possible systems.
As I wrote in an article the other day I have been thinking for some time about another idea for a horse racing rating system.
On Friday I finally decided that I would sit down and write the code to create the ratings.
So here is the thinking behind the new ratings…
1. I wanted to build up a % chance of a horse winning a race based on its past form.
2. I wanted to recalculate the ratings daily so they took into account the new information from the results from the day before.
3. I wanted to use 10 or more form indicators to create the ratings.
I also decided that I was going to work out all percentages based on the total number of records that we have in our most detailed database.
At the time of writing this contained 156,502 runners since the 11/10/2012.
And this number increases everyday.
First step was to decide on what form elements I would use.
I came up with 14 different pieces of information I would analyse from the age of the horse to how well the Jockey and Trainer were doing.
Runners that came 1st Last time out (LTO) had about a 2% chance of winning again.
(Note: I do understand this is a simplistic view in some ways because you could argue that a runner that came 1st on it’s last 2 runs probably has less chance of winning again than a runner that has only won once before. That could be for a future update.)
Second step was to create the code to create the ratings.
Third step was to rate every horse in every race.
By Saturday morning (22/02/2014) I had completed all the code and run the ratings.
The last month has been pretty difficult and for me that signals that it is now time to say “good night” to the flat systems and start looking at the jump races.
In fact next year I am defiantly going to finish my flat season a month earlier than everyone else!
Now days there are Hurdle and Chases races all year and although the going is likely to be different during the winter season you should be able to use some of the insight you have gained following these races over the summer.
Cheltenham is here but I am not going to look at it like most over punters.
Here is what I mean…
I am working on a new skill. Well it’s not totally new because I have been involved in system development for over 12 years.
But I am concentrating on refining one area and that is finding opportunities to lay under 2.00.
At the moment I have a couple of systems I am developing but I am also experimenting in markets like in-play (horse racing), AvB and a couple of football markets.
So I decided to try it at Cheltenham.
I must admit I am not a great lover of these big meetings. It’s not that I don’t like the meetings themselves, they are great fun and they bring the best runners, trainers and jockeys together.
What I mean is that they seem to get so many people involved in racing that wouldn’t normally have anything to do with the sport (or very little) that it causes strange patterns appearing on the markets.
Over the years I have even seen some runners get popular just because people like the name of the horse
Add to this the fact that many trainers are pulling out all the stops to get their horses over the finish line first, they can be pretty un-predictable meetings.
I am going to test (Probably not very scientifically) lay-ing every favourite that is under 2.00 before the off, over the 4 days.
But I am going to do one other thing as well, which is use a fixed liability stake.
Anyone who has read any of my articles/reports lately will know I am have been talking about staking in this way quite a bit.
It works even better if you can get a high enough strike rate when the odds are under 2.00.
On their own they have all shown to make a profit but I am hoping combined they really will help me double my bank in 90 days or less.
Each system should add about 35% to the bank over the 3 monthperiod although it is more likely one will do better than the other two.
We are going to start with a 100 point bank.
Each system will be allocated a % of the bank as a stake but once we decided how much, it will be fixed for the duration of the test.
There are no silly recovery plans or increasing your stake after we have made some profit.
And to make it even harder on myself I will not be introducing each system straight away.
We are going to start with the lay system and then move onto the other two over the next couple of weeks.
In some ways this is the worst time of the year to start a test like this.
We have bad weather.
We are in the winter season with a lot less races which means itis not as easy to make a lot of profit and by the end of the test, we will be at the end of the NH season making selecting runners tricky.
But if you are going to set yourself a challenge you may as well make it interesting
All the results will be coming from the Grey Horse Bots that we have set up to monitor the Betfair market 60 seconds before the off.
So if you fancy following along and seeing how it goes then…