-->
here

Horse Racing Systems UK

How to profit from horse racing systems
Subscribe

Archive for the ‘Automated Betting’

5 tips to creating your own horse racing system part 2

August 29, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi
It’s Friday…
I have to repair some decking in the garden. It has lasted 8
years but some of the supports gave way this week. My wife nearly
disappeared down a big hole!
If you have been following the tests (click here to have a look)
then you may have seen that yesterday it had a 9.4, 7.56 and a
44.52 winner.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=84
After a difficult month these winners helped get the system back
into profit.
Following on from yesterday…”How to create your own horse
racing system”.
Tip 2.
Sample size.
If you take our own in house SPB System Builder database, then we
now have over 240,000 records.
But you have to remember that the moment you select a particular
race type that number can drop down to around 10000 records.
Throw in a few other filters and you can end up with a sample
size of 2 to 3000.
This isn’t that bad and it will give you a good indication of
how the system you are developing performs.
Where I think it can get difficult is when you get below sample
sizes of 200.
When you start delving into age groups or last time out you can
often end up with less than a 100.
And I think that is when you need to question if you have enough
data to warrant including the filter.
When developing systems it is easy to get carried a way with
trying to get rid of all the races that are giving a negative
figure but you should also consider that in 3 months time and
with more data you could find a completely different result.
Myself I prefer 300+  before I even consider using the
information to alter a system.
With sample size out of the way in the next part I want to talk
about some of the filters that I have found most useful when
creating systems.
If you choose them carefully they can make a difference to the
profitability of a system…
…You can see example of this if you have a quick look at Hurdle
system 1a
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/page.asp?id=103
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The Nerd” (actually I may change this to “Geek” it
sounds better!)
P.S. Don’t forget to check out all the testing including
“Elision”
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=90

Tip 2. Sample size.

If you take our own in house SPB System Builder database, then we now have over 240,000 records.

But you have to remember that the moment you select a particular race type that number can drop down to around 10000 records.

Throw in a few other filters and you can end up with a sample

size of 2 to 3000.

This isn’t that bad and it will give you a good indication of how the system you are developing performs.

Where I think it can get difficult is when you get below sample sizes of 200.

When you start delving into age groups or last time out you can often end up with less than a 100.

And I think that is when you need to question if you have enough data to warrant including the filter.

When developing systems it is easy to get carried a way with trying to get rid of all the races that are giving a negative figure but you should also consider that in 3 months time and with more data you could find a completely different result.

Myself I prefer 300+  before I even consider using the information to alter a system.

With sample size out of the way in the next part I want to talk about some of the filters that I have found most useful when creating systems.

If you choose them carefully they can make a difference to the profitability of a system…

You can see example of this if you have a quick look at Hurdle system 1a

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd” (actually I may change this to “Geek” it sounds better!)

P.S. Don’t forget to check out all the testing including “Elision”

Daily Rambles are back…

July 16, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi

It’s been a long time since I did a daily email…

But because we are doing so much “open” testing now and I am
creating a lot more systems it seems appropriate to start up my
daily rambles again from Monday to Friday.

Yesterday I put up a new video about a system I had actually
talked about in another video (weird).

Anyway you can find out how I have “tweaked” it a little here.

Considering it has made over 70 points profit since I recorded
the first video it probably doesn’t really need playing around
with…but that’s me :-)

Testing Report up to:  15/07/2013

Just about all our tests can be viewed here.

New test for July.
10 flat trainers -48.58 (very disappointing so far)
Jockey Chase +4.15

The lay test 1

Level Stakes +31.88
10 point liability +128.42

Lay test 2
Level Stakes +25.2

10 point liability +109.86

Flat Six and Flat and AW trainers
Level Stakes +11.5

16 Jockeys to follow
Level Stake + 54.69

9 Trainers to follow
Level Stake -14.03

AW Favourite test 2
Level Stake +13.09

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
(A nerdy guy that does some weird stuff)
(Built a 3D printer and now a quadcopter…told you…nerdy)

Favourite saying is from dog obedience training…
”Reward the habit you want not the one you don’t.”

P.S. We are giving TJ PROFIT FINDER + as a bonus to new
SPB System Builder users this month.

Find out more here:

Please note the following:
These are “tests” and should be treated as such.
The above are the results from our “open” testing only.
All are based on 1point stakes unless otherwise stated.
All prices are to Betfair Starting Price and after 5% commission.
Test systems can be withdrawn at any time.

Dundalk All Weather Horse racing system

March 17, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

When I put together tutorials for SPB System Builder users on how to create profitable systems I try to stress how important it is to be specific.

Here is an example…

Although people to tend to bunch “All Weather” (AW) courses together, there are differences.

Southwell uses Fibresand where the other courses use Polytrack.

But even though most use polytrack this can still lead to different characteristics and speed.

The thing I really like about AW is that even if you just pick just one course to concentrate on…there will be plenty of meetings throughout the year to test your theories against.

There is one AW course people tend to forget and that is Dundalk in Ireland.

As Irelands only all weather course, it does tend to have at least one meeting per week, which makes it ideal to create a system for.

But being specific is not just about the course.

Form elements also play a role and the more you drill down and look at the runners the more likely you are to find a profitable system.

The Dundalk AW system is good example of this.

This system takes into account horse gender, Headgear, Age, claiming and the how well the horse performed last time out.

It also looks at the horse’s performance at the course and at the distance.

Dundalk mostly runs Wednesday, Thursday or Friday and because that is where most of the results come from, we stick with those days.

The problem with a horse racing betting system like this…is…that it will probably produce very few selections on a weekly basis.

Sometimes as little as one selection a week.

This puts many people off, which is a shame because when you are more specific about your runners the better chance you have of actually making profit.

The Dundalk AW system has had winners as high as 87.06.

Of course it doesn’t win every time but generally when it does it normally wins high.

So if you are NOT going to create your own system using a tool like the SPB System Builder

…Then it may be worth looking at a system like the Dundalk AW system.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

ups and downs of a One a day horse racing backing system

March 03, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

As a Betting system developer I am too a ware that when I tell someone about a new system I have developed that it will suddenly start losing.

Not always but it does happen.

So when I am get selections from someone else that have been doing well, although I still understand they can start losing I am hopeful they won’t.

So this story starts close to the beginning of February 2014.

This guy has been sending me his horse racing selections for months asking me to promote them for him.

Now after doing this for over 12 years I know I have to make people send me selections for quite a while.

Because if I am going to promote their racing selections I need to know they will stay the course.

I have to admit though that I was a little mean in this case and left this person hanging around for 5 odd months.

Anyway because he was so persistent I ended up putting together the results and sending them out to a couple of my lists where I know people like testing selections.

Up to the day I sent them out I had results going back to Sept 2nd 2013.

In that time the system  had just 6 losers.

So I was pretty confident that people were going to be amazed by the results.

I started sending them out on the 6th February 2014

Well it started good with 3 winners in a row then it had a NR then all hell let lose!

It went like this…

2 losers
1 winner
1 loser
1 winner
3 losers
1 winner
2 losers

As you can imagine this didn’t go down too well.

The guy sending me the selections got quite upset…some of my readers were upset…
…But I argued it was a live test and we should watch them for a bit longer.

What happened next?

We had 6 winners in a row including one at 3/1.

That was up to the end of racing on the 3rd of March 2014

Even with 9 total losers in February the system still finished 1 point up.

So although the start of the test was a little disappointing we may be seeing a turnaround.

Have a look for yourself here.

We may even still be doing the trial so you can follow along.

All systems…And I mean all systems have bad times. But it is the recovery that counts.

Let’s hope this one continues.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. You can also download all the results here.

What good are horse racing ratings anyway?

February 24, 2014 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

What good are horse racing ratings anyway?
It’s a good question and up until a couple of years ago I would have probably argued against them.
Until I started creating my own that is.
But still the question remains why use them and how good are they really?
Well the number one reason for using them is that they can either validate what you are seeing on the market or they can be used to find a horse that others may be missing.
“How good” will depend on the information used to create the ratings.
Up until last week I had created two different ones myself over the last 2 years.
Both are being used in the SPB System Builder and both have helped produce some interesting systems.
Just check out system 5-2 hurdle.
Each rating system was developed differently and using totally different information.
But both have been useful in identifying possible systems.
As I wrote in an article the other day I have been thinking for some time about another idea for a horse racing rating system.
On Friday I finally decided that I would sit down and write the code to create the ratings.
So here is the thinking behind the new ratings…
1. I wanted to build up a % chance of a horse winning a race based on its past form.
2. I wanted to recalculate the ratings daily so they took into account the new information from the results from the day before.
3. I wanted to use 10 or more form indicators to create the ratings.
I also decided that I was going to work out all percentages based on the total number of records that we have in our most detailed database.
At the time of writing this contained 156,502 runners since the 11/10/2012.
And this number increases everyday.
First step was to decide on what form elements I would use.
I came up with 14 different pieces of information I would analyse from the age of the horse to how well the Jockey and Trainer were doing.
As example…
Runners that came 1st Last time out (LTO) had about a 2% chance of winning again.
(Note: I do understand this is a simplistic view in some ways because you could argue that a runner that came 1st on it’s last 2 runs probably has less chance of winning again than a runner that has only won once before. That could be for a future update.)

Second step was to create the code to create the ratings.
Third step was to rate every horse in every race.
By Saturday morning (22/02/2014) I had completed all the code and run the ratings.
(I have since added the results in.)
So how can you use the ratings?
The first mistake people make with ratings is to think that the top rated runner should be the one to win every race.
That’s just not the case.
You will probably find that in most cases it will be ranked in the top 7 or 8 and often in the top 3 which validates that your ratings are pointing you in the right direction.
What you will often find though is that the ratings are very close between many runners in a race.
So what you should be looking for is where the top rated runner is clear by 2, 3 or even more points and is still in the running.
Over time you will probably be able to create a clear understanding of how you can use the ratings to help you find winners (or even losers).
I have used the above idea before and this is how it looks using our new ratings.
How else can you use the horse racing ratings.
Well they can be very handy when you are looking for races where the chances of a horse winning is not as clear cut as the odds suggest.
Or if you want help deciding between two runners.
Sometimes you may even find that your 3rd, 4th or 5th rated runners win often enough at reasonably good prices to return a profit.
Once you have ratings it is then a case of analyzing the results to see what surprises they hold.
That is why when I created these latest one I immediately gave uses a way to analyse them so that they could start running their own tests.

I am not sure how these ratings will work out but I think they are probably the most detailed I have created to date.
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm

AW All weather Jockey and Trainers

October 24, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi
Whenever someone asks me the question “How should I start creating my own betting systems” I always advise “Get specific”.
The thing is when you are starting out there is a lot to take in, not only because of all the different types of races but also courses, jockeys, trainers, form and the list goes on.
My first suggestion is always to “cut down the clutter”.
Whether that means to only use certain type of races like “Handicap” or “Maidens” (Neither really my first choice for beginners) or stick to a certain race distance or even course.
People often say things like “But isn’t following xxx…difficult?
It doesn’t matter what you follow there are going to be challenges but I guess at the end of the day people want to start “now” and have plenty of choice.
So suggesting one course or one Jockey is sometimes not enough.
That is why I often suggest starting with Aw (All Weather) races.
The reasons for this are…
You only have 4 or 5 courses to learn about.
Although the surfaces are not exactly the same there are similar.
Although you may not have races everyday they do appear on the racecard most days.
There are disadvantages as well.
The class of racing can be pretty low sometimes.
It is difficult to use turf form on sand.
There are still differences between the AW courses and surfaces.
But the above can be true of many types of racing.
Concentrating on AW will teach you a lot without having to study a new course nearly everyday.
What I want to do is here is show you how you can quickly find profitable ways to use AW courses.
There has been a lot written about Trainer / Jockey stats and to be honest I have never taken much notice of them.
Maybe in hindsight this was a little foolish but to be honest they have never excited me much…
…That was until I added them into the SPB System Builder.
Now I have found that I have missed out on a very simple way to identify the chance of being on a winning horse.
I did a quick video to explain what I mean.
I hope you found the video interesting.
As I mentioned there are still a couple of places left if you have been thinking of coming to my seminar in Swindon…
Click Here to find out more.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/page.asp?id=79
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The System Mason”

Hi

Whenever someone asks me the question “How should I start creating my own betting systems” I always advise “Get specific”.

The thing is when you are starting out there is a lot to take in, not only because of all the different types of races but also courses, jockeys, trainers, form and the list goes on.

My first suggestion is always to “cut down the clutter”.

Whether that means to only use certain type of races like “Handicap” or “Maidens” (Neither really my first choice for beginners) or stick to a certain race distance or even course.

People often say things like “But isn’t following xxx…difficult?

It doesn’t matter what you follow there are going to be challenges but I guess at the end of the day people want to start “now” and have plenty of choice.

So suggesting one course or one Jockey is sometimes not enough.

That is why I often suggest starting with Aw (All Weather) races.

The reasons for this are…

You only have 4 or 5 courses to learn about.

Although the surfaces are not exactly the same there are similar.

Although you may not have races everyday they do appear on the racecard most days.

There are disadvantages as well.

The class of racing can be pretty low sometimes.

It is difficult to use turf form on sand.

There are still differences between the AW courses and surfaces.

But the above can be true of many types of racing.

Concentrating on AW will teach you a lot without having to study a new course nearly everyday.

What I want to do is here is show you how you can quickly find profitable ways to use AW courses.

There has been a lot written about Trainer / Jockey stats and to be honest I have never taken much notice of them.

Maybe in hindsight this was a little foolish but to be honest they have never excited me much…

…That was until I added them into the SPB System Builder.

Now I have found that I have missed out on a very simple way to identify the chance of being on a winning horse.

I did a quick video to explain what I mean.

AW System

I hope you found the video interesting.

As I mentioned there are still a couple of places left if you have been thinking of coming to my seminar in Swindon…

Click Here to find out more.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

“The System Mason”

Time to stop using your flat systems?

September 19, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles

As you are probably aware the flat season is coming to close.

The question I often get asked is when should you stop using your
flat systems?

I mean in theory you could go to the end of the season couldn’t you?

In theory you could…

…But I think you would be unwise to do so, especially as near
the end of the season things seem to get a little unpredictable.

Over the years I have often mentioned this but without really
being able to show what I mean.

But now I have the SPB System Builder I can give you some
visuals.

Here are the screen shots of 3 flat systems that have done pretty
well all summer…

What do they have in common?

They are all suffering at the end of the season.

The last month has been pretty difficult and for me that signals
that it is now time to say “good night” to the flat systems
and start looking at the jump races.

In fact next year I am defiantly going to finish my flat season a
month earlier than everyone else!

Now days there are Hurdle and Chases races all year and although
the going is likely to be different during the winter season you
should be able to use some of the insight you have gained
following these races over the summer.

If you dissected system 5-2 to its 3 main parts…

Flat 192 points
Hurdle 194 points (A 56 winner yesterday)
Chase 200 points

Then you can see they have all been pretty equal except the flat
system has lost over 200 points in the last 45 days!

I don’t have to continue betting live anyway because the SPB
System Builder
will tell me the results from now on.

This is another reason I always say you should not mix race types
because it can be harder to spot what’s happening.

In this case we were able to easily split the 3 types of racing
and analyse each one individually.

So next year you can start the flat season off with a bang,
having a good idea where you may find some profit.

Now for the NH season :)

But remember it may take a month or so to get going so still be careful.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

P.S. The Irish system I gave away earlier this month is still doing well.

You may want it out here.

I can sometimes get it wrong…

May 06, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles

Not this time…

What am I going on about?

Well just stay with me because it’s important you get the whole
story…

At the beginning of January I put a video together which talked
about looking at following a system over a year.

But before you look at the video it’s worth knowing some background
information.

See I was trying to show  that the way we look at following systems is
all wrong.

Many of us have developed a really short term view, when really we
need to look longer term.

How much longer?

Well I will leave that for the video because it explains it in
context.

We have this system called “the7system” which last year(2012) made
over 230 points profit.

But it had a lot of up’s and down’s.


And you will see it is still having “up’s” and “down’s” and that’s
the point I made in the video.

It doesn’t matter how much you wish you could get your hands on a
system or selections that just go up all the time…it is very
unlikely that you will.

But that does not mean you cannot make profit.

Anyway the video will explain this better.


It’s the big priced winners that count with this system and over the
last 3 days it has had wins at 11, 11, 12 and a 15.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. By the way I know for a fact that many of the people that
started following the system at the beginning…are not now.

Even after I showed them, how to set up their stake so they could get

the most from the system and get through the difficult times…

Cheltenham Day 1 2013 Who I am I going to lay?

March 12, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Cheltenham is here but I am not going to look at it like most over punters.

Here is what I mean…

I am working on a new skill. Well it’s not totally new because I have been involved in system development for over 12 years.

But I am concentrating on refining one area and that is finding opportunities to lay under 2.00.

At the moment I have a couple of systems I am developing but I am also experimenting in markets like in-play (horse racing), AvB and a couple of football markets.

So I decided to try it at Cheltenham.

I must admit I am not a great lover of these big meetings.  It’s not that I don’t like the meetings themselves, they are great fun and they bring the best runners, trainers and jockeys together.

What I mean is that they seem to get so many people involved in racing that wouldn’t normally have anything to do with the sport (or very little) that it causes strange patterns appearing on the markets.

Over the years I have even seen some runners get popular just because people like the name of the horse :)

Add to this the fact that many trainers are pulling out all the stops to get their horses over the finish line first, they can be pretty un-predictable meetings.

I am going to test (Probably not very scientifically) lay-ing every favourite that is under 2.00 before the off, over the 4 days.

But I am going to do one other thing as well, which is use a fixed liability stake.

Anyone who has read any of my articles/reports lately will know I am have been talking about staking in this way quite a bit.

It works even better if you can get a high enough strike rate when the odds are under 2.00.

If you are following the “how to double your bank in 90 days or less…” You have probably seen where we are following separately the selections that come in under 2.00.

There are not many selections within this price range but we have had a strike rate so far of over 60%.

Add this with liability staking and it equals a nice little profit.

So I am going to set a copy of the Grey Horse Bot up in “Auto Mode” and just ask it to monitor the markets for me.

I am not even going to name the favourite. The bot will just place a bet into the market on the favourite if it is under 2.0.

So far it looks like…

Simonsig in the 14.05 (There is some support for Overturn) 1.65

Quevega in the 16.40 (There is some support for Swing Bowler or
Une Artiste) 1.8

This are both very well fancied and very highly napped so it will be interesting to see what happens.

I am not really expecting  any steamers coming in under 2.0, but you never can tell what’s going to happen.

Anyway I will let you know today’s results tomorrow.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. You can check out part one “How to double your bank in 90 days or less…here.

The7system Jan Report

February 06, 2013 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Hi There…
I just finished writing the first months report on the7system which we opened in January.
Ok it’s not that exciting…it only made 11 points after Betfair’s commission last month and it is only averaging around 27.48 points per month.
And like every system it has up’s and down’s.
http://www.the7system.co.uk/jan-report.png
http://www.the7system.co.uk/The7system_report.pdf
I mean if you can show me a system that doesn’t have bad days then I am going to be really impressed.
But I doubt if you can.
And this is the point I have tried to get across with the7system…
You have to look a little bit more long term than the normal 30 days.
Yes we did make profit in the first month and yes the strike rate continued as it has up to now, but you still need to think long term.
I know people do not want to hear that….What they really want to be told is…
“Make 20, 30, 40 or even 50 points profit every month…”
I know this to be true from a survey I did that asked…
“What stopped you from joining the7system?”
A high percentage of people chose the option that said…
“…I want results quicker”
Actually it would have been easy for me to do what a lot of vendors do and just play on the 27 points per month and hide the other statistics but…
….I wanted the7system to be different.
I wanted to tell people “exactly as it is” from the start.
With detailed information that will allow them to make the right stake choice and so they know exactly what could happen while following the selections.
Surely it’s better for you to stake less as long as you make a profit in the end, rather than use a stake far too high and have to give up on any chance of making profit.
I have seen that happen too many times.
Anyway I just wanted to let you know there is a report and there is a results page and last time I looked there were about 7 places left.
I don’t know…does having all the information you need to make informed decisions make sense to you?
Or would you rather me just say…
“Roll up roll up…here’s your chance to make over 27 pts a month from a simple use hands free system that just keeps making profit…”
You can read the report here.
http://www.the7system.co.uk/The7system_report.pdf
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
P.S. I hope you chose the first options because you need to know the facts!
http://www.the7system.co.uk/The7system_report.pdf

Hi There…

I just finished writing the first months report on the7system which we opened in January.

OK, it’s not that exciting…it only made 11 points after Betfair’s commission last month and it is only averaging around 27.48 points per month.

And like every system it has up’s and down’s.

The7System January 2013 report

The7System January 2013 report

I mean if you can show me a system that doesn’t have bad days then I am going to be really impressed.

But I doubt if you can.

And this is the point I have tried to get across with the7system

You have to look a little bit more long term than the normal 30 days.

Yes we did make profit in the first month and yes the strike rate continued as it has up to now, but you still need to think long term.

I know people do not want to hear that….What they really want to be told is…

“Make 20, 30, 40 or even 50 points profit every month…”

I know this to be true from a survey I did that asked…

“What stopped you from joining the7system?”

A high percentage of people chose the option that said…

…I want results quicker

Actually it would have been easy for me to do what a lot of vendors do and just play on the 27 points per month and hide the other statistics but…

….I wanted the7system to be different.

I wanted to tell people “exactly as it is” from the start.

With detailed information that will allow them to make the right stake choice and so they know exactly what could happen while following the selections.

Surely it’s better for you to stake less as long as you make a profit in the end, rather than use a stake far too high and have to give up on any chance of making profit.

I have seen that happen too many times.

Anyway I just wanted to let you know there is a report and there is a results page and last time I looked there were about 7 places left.

I don’t know…does having all the information you need to make informed decisions make sense to you?

Or would you rather me just say…

Roll up roll up…here’s your chance to make over 27 pts a month from a simple use hands free system that just keeps making profit…

You can read the report by clicking here.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

P.S. I hope you chose the first options because you need to know the facts!