I get asked a lot (and I mean a lot) about profit and what should
people expect to earn from horse racing and betting in general
and I have even talked in this email plenty, about what you
should be looking for.
Now people throw all sorts of figures around but after many years
of creating my own systems, reviewing others and generally just
kicking around and seeing what happens I have come up with a
figure that I think everyone should aim for.
Now I am not going to give you that figure off the bat because
that would be too easy instead I am going to lead you a long on
this for a bit, but I will show some interesting information if
you are prepared to stay with me.
I am also not going to have the time to finish this all in one
go so this will be a 3 part series starting today and ending
next week, but I hope you will find it at the very least
interesting but it would be great if you get something from it.
So let us get to it….
One of the things I love doing (sad I know) is working the
figures. Again I have talked about this before but I think they
are important and that’s why, I wanted to cover the subject
again but this time I am going to be using a live example from
the SP4 selections.
We first introduced the selections quite a while ago and they
were great at first but then like many systems had some issues,
but we monitored the results and tweaked the system as we
collected more data. Last month where we made nearly 19pts
SP4 is a back and lay system. It has 2 selections (1 back and 1
lay) in 4 races a day and if we get a match on the lay selection,
then we also put a back bet on the second selection.
We never just use the back selection (although I will get to that
later) we always lay first and if we get matched we then back.
Of course we have created a Betting Bot to do all this
automatically, so the users can just let it run on its own.
The way we suggested the set-up was to stake to liability on the
lay bet and then what ever that stake turned out to be we would
then place half again on the back.
I really hope this doesn’t sound too complicated, here is how
it would look.
Let us say you had a maximum liability of £10 on the lay and the
price was 5.00 on Betfair.
10 / (5-1) = £2.50 stake on the lay
£2.50 / 2 = £1.25 on the back bet.
Yeah I know it sounds a little complex but again the bot does
everything for you.
Since we tweaked the system we have had a further 317 matched
bets so I thought it was time I put them under the spotlight to
see what we could find out about the selections and if we were
using the correct staking plan.
First of all I must admit I am starting to have my doubts about
staking to liability. I know I have been an advocate of it for a
while, but I am beginning to think there are many cases where it
doesn’t make sense and this may be one of them.
Anyway on analyzing the results a couple of things have become
1. Staking too liability is not the most profitable way to use
the selections even though it gets far more selections.
2. If we are going to stop using staking to liability we need a
maximum odds cap.
So let us start with my findings from staking to liability first.
Over the 319 matched selections we have made profit using this
method but to be honest most of the profit came from last month.
We didn’t really have a maximum odds limit set because we were
staking to liability (as mentioned) so we had no reason to cap it
because we wanted as many selections as possible, well so we
So using excel I did some calculations on the odds and the
winners and losers and I found the most profitable maximum lay is
10.00, as long as you used a fixed stake and do not bet to
Interestingly this also increased the profit on the backs bets.
In the next section I will explain these figures in more detail
and what I did to get a better understanding of the selections
Thanks for reading
“The System Mason”
P.S. Check out GGS the profit is still going up.
Click Here to see the results