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Improving your betting system Part 1

June 02, 2011 By: admin Category: Emails, Horse Racing Articles

Hi there

I get asked a lot (and I mean a lot) about profit and what should
people expect to earn from horse racing and betting in general
and I have even talked in this email plenty, about what you
should be looking for.

Now people throw all sorts of figures around but after many years
of creating my own systems, reviewing others and generally just
kicking around and seeing what happens I have come up with a
figure that I think everyone should aim for.

Now I am not going to give you that figure off the bat because
that would be too easy instead I am going to lead you a long on
this for a bit, but I will show some interesting information if
you are prepared to stay with me.

I am also not going to have the time to finish this all in one
go so this will be a 3 part series starting today and ending
next week, but I hope you will find it at the very least
interesting but it would be great if you get something from it.

So let us get to it….

One of the things I love doing (sad I know) is working the
figures. Again I have talked about this before but I think they
are important and that’s why, I wanted to cover the subject
again but this time I am going to be using a live example from
the SP4 selections.

We first introduced the selections quite a while ago and they
were great at first but then like many systems had some issues,
but we monitored the results and tweaked the system as we
collected more data. Last month where we made nearly 19pts
profit.

SP4 is a back and lay system. It has 2 selections (1 back and 1
lay) in 4 races a day and if we get a match on the lay selection,
then we also put a back bet on the second selection.

We never just use the back selection (although I will get to that
later) we always lay first and if we get matched we then back.

Of course we have created a Betting Bot to do all this
automatically, so the users can just let it run on its own.

The way we suggested the set-up was to stake to liability on the
lay bet and then what ever that stake turned out to be we would
then place half again on the back.

I really hope this doesn’t sound too complicated, here is how
it would look.

Let us say you had a maximum liability of £10 on the lay and the
price was 5.00 on Betfair.

10 / (5-1) = £2.50 stake on the lay
£2.50 / 2 = £1.25 on the back bet.

Yeah I know it sounds a little complex but again the bot does
everything for you.

Since we tweaked the system we have had a further 317 matched
bets so I thought it was time I put them under the spotlight to
see what we could find out about the selections and if we were
using the correct staking plan.

First of all I must admit I am starting to have my doubts about
staking to liability. I know I have been an advocate of it for a
while, but I am beginning to think there are many cases where it
doesn’t make sense and this may be one of them.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/?p=324

Anyway on analyzing the results a couple of things have become
clear.

1.    Staking too liability is not the most profitable way to use
the selections even though it gets far more selections.
2.    If we are going to stop using staking to liability we need a
maximum odds cap.

So let us start with my findings from staking to liability first.
Over the 319 matched selections we have made profit using this
method but to be honest most of the profit came from last month.
We didn’t really have a maximum odds limit set because we were
staking to liability (as mentioned) so we had no reason to cap it
because we wanted as many selections as possible, well so we
thought.

So using excel I did some calculations on the odds and the
winners and losers and I found the most profitable maximum lay is
10.00, as long as you used a fixed stake and do not bet to
liability.

Interestingly this also increased the profit on the backs bets.

In the next section I will explain these figures in more detail
and what I did to get a better understanding of the selections

Thanks for reading

Part 2
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/?p=1148

Malcolm
“The System Mason”

P.S. Check out GGS the profit is still going up.
Click Here to see the results

Email to Horse Racing System subscribers 22/10/2010

October 22, 2010 By: admin Category: Emails

Hi There

It’s the Korean F1 Grand Prix this weekend but I am going to miss it because I am training to be a Kennel Club dog Agility judge. It worries me that wanting to train as a judge has something to do with wanting POWER…lol

Of course I have to pass the exam first.

I see there is a big thing about a site called Betting Rebellion (I am not giving a link because I don’t want you to go there). I just tried all the links at the bottom of the page, you know the ones that go to “contact me”, “about” and the others and they all take you back to the sales page!.

Still maybe I am wrong the results show some great winners. Have you purchased it? What do you think? I would really love to know.

Meanwhile the Triple Treats test system on my blog had a nice 4/1 winner yesterday.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/

Although we did have a losing day this week, but we are still using the “Bookies money” so it’s not all bad.

Just in case you are not aware of the term “Bookies Money” this simply means you have made enough money from your original start bank, that when you have a loser you are taking the loss from your winnings, not your original bank.

In this case our original bank was £100 but when we lost we had already gained £25 from our previous wins, so we were able to use that to fund the losses. The 4/1 winner yesterday nearly bought us back up to where we were on Monday.

I mentioned in one of my post that we have also been looking at a “two a day” system and although I am not showing you the selections yet, it seems to be working well but we want to tweak it for a bit longer, before we test it in public.

Talking of testing Eddie (http://www.prizelay.com/) is giving Grey Horse Bot users a test of his system at the moment, which you can pick up in the bonus section of the members area.

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/

So far we have had 7 wins out of 7 bets so it is a good start to the test. Eddie has been working hard to create a really consistent system and the last 6 months shows that it seems to be working well.

Well that’s it from me this week. Have a great weekend.

Malcolm

P.S. Would you like some other systems?
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/sa

P.P.S. I see that the Dennis and Hazels system is still going strong.
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_ggs.html

MB System results video

July 02, 2010 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Systems

Hi there it’s Friday!

I got a lot of things planned this weekend including washing the car, if there is any water left by then!

Last week I mentioned that I was going to put together a video that showed you how you can use the liability staking method to make money.

Well here it is.
http://www.magicsys.co.uk/blog/

I am showing you the results from the Magic Bullet system over the last year and what it would have meant to your bank, using the liability staking method.

I have also allowed you to leave comments because I would really like to hear what people have to say about the video (as long as it is not too personal!) and what I have shown you.

http://www.magicsys.co.uk/blog/

There are not many sites around that could show you results like these after a year, especially with so few losers.

I hope you find the video interesting.
http://www.magicsys.co.uk/blog/

Slayer Lays update…

Well this system has certainly made a turn for the worse this month and we just don’t quite understand why, although it isn’t all totally bad news because when you look at the results, there seems to be a price range that the system works best within.

Analysing the results so far we can see a profit in the 5 to 12 range so this maybe something to concentrate on, although it’s not really what we were expecting and I certainly want to try the system for another month, before we make any other assumptions.

This is always the beauty of testing these systems in the open as we did with MB it gives you the reader, a great chance to make up your own mind about the selections.

Anyway we are analysing all the results to see if we have missed something that could improve the selections and get rid of some losers.

I am not going to hide from the fact I am really disappointed that the system has gone this way because I was expecting a far higher success rate, especially with the work we have put in to come up with the system in the first place.

Still I suppose if I told the truth I do enjoy that part of it the most!

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.

Slayer Lays and the results this month

June 30, 2010 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Systems

Hi there

I sent and email our yesterday to one of subscriber list talking
about Slayer Lays and the results this month, here is what I
said…

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=15

As you may have seen from my information I suggest a reduction
factor of 1 to 5% with 1% being ultra cautious and 5%, the
maximum I suggest.

I know we have had some losers this month (it happens) but we are
still getting plenty of selections to make up for it, but I want
to talk about Friday when we lost on “Bounty Box”.

There was a NR runner in this race called “Yer Woman” which
we had down as a dangerous runner and as far as we were
concerned, the reduction factor should have been above 5%,
especially as she was 6/1 in the morning paper.

It appears on Betfair her reduction factor was under 5%, so we
did not have a No Bet triggered when she was removed.

Please don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to change the
results or make excuses but what I am trying to do is learn from
it. Let’s face it if we can save losing even on one horse, it
is better for everyone!

The point of the email is to suggest that if you are using a 5%
reduction factor to take it down to 1% or just take a No Bet, if
there are any Non Runners in the race at all.

We will be setting ours to 1% from now on.

One other thing to note is prices. At the moment we are betting
to liability using the odds 1.02 to 50 but after analysing the
results we can see that 5.00 to 50 would have been more
profitable this month, because we would have missed several of
the losers (nice) while only missing out on about 11 actual bets.

Anyway I just thought I would keep you up to date with our
Finding’s so at least you can consider changing your own
settings.”

I just thought this information would be handy for you as well.

As you will probably be aware today is the day that the FL horse
racing software is launched. Don’t forget if you decide to try
it out and want to get a couple of extra bonuses then click here.
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/FL-bonus.html

I will be putting out the second video later this week regarding
how betting to liability can be quite profitable. Look out for an
email in the next couple of days.

Thanks for reading Malcolm

Malcolm

Slayer lay selections for 28/06/2010

June 28, 2010 By: admin Category: Automated Betting, Horse Racing Systems

Hi All

Slayer lay selections for 28/06/2010
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/slayer-lays.pdf
If you were running the Grey Horse Bot .csv over the weekend
then you would have enjoyed Saturdays selections.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/

Here are today’s selections.
I am recomending that the reduction factor is set between 1% and 5% if you want to be very cautious 1% being very cautious.

14:45    Ponte    Wisemans Diamond
15:00    Wolv    Yungaburra
19:40    Wind    Zip Lock
19:55    Muss    Alben Star
21:25    Muss    Weetentherty

You can now see my daily results here…
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=15

I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting more than 10% of my bank as a liability or if you are choosing a stake size then 1% of your bank, but don’t bet on anything over 7 or 8.00 on Betfair, unless you are sure of the dangers.

Please, please and please again don’t forget this is a test… we are just looking to see how these selections perform over the coming weeks.

We have also added the auto link to these sites which include:
GHB-Lite owners
http://www.spbxmas.com/index-ac.asp

Magic Bullet subscribers.
http://www.magicsys.co.uk/index-lc.asp

And CYOBS
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/

Thanks for reading

Malcolm

Betting to liability

June 25, 2010 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

Hi All

I keep getting asked how you bet using liability so I thought I would put this quick video together in my usual “quick” style!

OPPS Should have been 500 x 10% gives you your £50 stake not 500/10%!!! Sorry.

Let me know what you think or if you want me to explain any other part of betting

Test selections for the 3rd June 2010 I am now calling the Slayer Lays

June 03, 2010 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Systems

Hi All

Here are the selections for the 3rd of June.

I am now going to refer to the selections as slayer lays. I have put the bonus in the Grey Horse Bot members area so you can use the .CSV everyday. This document should help.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/slayer-lays.pdf

Here are today’s selections.

I am recomending that the reduction factor is set between 1% and 5% if you want to be very cautious 1% being very cautious.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting more than 10% of my bank as a liability or if you are choosing a stake size then 1% of your bank, but don’t bet on anything over 7 or 8.00 on Betfair, unless you are sure of the dangers.

16:10    Ham    Dickie Le Davoir 10.5
17:10    Ham    Sheiling 12.5
18:20    Uttox    Old Brigade 6.8
18:55    Uttox    Rathrockscourt 6.8 (A nr has caused a 9.1% reduction factor so NB)
19:25    Uttox    Go West 5.7
20:00    Uttox    Timoca 12.5

Please, please and please again don’t forget this is a test… we are just looking to see how these selections perform over the coming weeks.

Thanks for reading

Malcolm

Doubled my betting bank in 10 days..how…

April 28, 2010 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles, Horse Racing Systems

Good Morning

This will be my last email for a couple of weeks I am off travelling a
bit and I probably wont have time to put together another news letter
until I get back.

I am continuing the test I told you about last week…
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/?p=241

…and so far we have still not had a losing day, which I am
pleasantly surprised about although, I must admit on some occasions if
it has got to 5pm and I have stopped Grey Horse Bot running because I
was in a reasonable profit for the day.

The bank has gone from £12 (when I settled on the settings) to
£24.00 in 10 betting days which I think is pretty respectable.

While I am away I am going to leave the Grey Horse Bot running without
interference just to see what happens. I will either come back to a
busted bank or a nice bit of profit…Whatever happens I will
let you know.

If you are a Grey Horse Bot subscriber then remember you can get all
the information about this system in the bonus part of the
member’s area along with details of how to automatically,
download and run the selections daily (Mon to Friday).

Please don’t forget to read the information in the blog, it
is very important.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/newblog/?p=241

Because of time restraints I am finding that I am relying on software
to bet for me more and more. I know some people are concerned about
using software you may find these articles could help.

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=6

http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=1

Automated betting may not be for everyone but many of the claims that
they are not safe and can not be trusted rattle me because they can be
far safer than betting manually especially if your one of those people
who get carried away with the emotion of betting and then bet or races
or runners that you regret later.

When I get back from my travels I am hoping there could be good news
about something else we have been experimenting with. This idea came
about during testing of one of the Grey Horse Bot features. At first we
just thought it was luck but it has been showing consistent results for
sometime now.

Anyway all should hopefully be revealed when I get back if it continues
to show a profit.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
sales@bluebelldata.co.uk

P.S. I know I was meant to tell you about the penny shares this week.
http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_pss.htm

The document I am writing is turning out to be longer than I was
expecting but it should be ready a few days after I get back.

This guy is giving me great US penny share tips. He tipped BGBR on the
19th two days before anyone else did, now lots of people are talking
about them.

http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com

How was your March betting?

April 14, 2010 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

Good Morning

The question was did a lot of people struggle in March?

I know we did and looking around at other services we were not the only ones.

I always say that March and April can be difficult Months and it seems I am being proved right again!

Magic Bullet got hit by a loser at the end of March. This was it’s first since last October and within a few days had started to make the losses back, but then we were hit by another one on the 5th April.

In real terms MB is still in profit since we opened the service to the public on the 9th of February and if you have been following them from the very start when we gave them away, you will know that it is still very profitable.

Results: http://www.magicsys.co.uk/mb-results.zip

I have to admit though that I can not say the same about SP4 although we have been improving the selection process, so we are hoping this will turn around shortly.

As I said we were not the only ones to struggle…

One service I like to remind people about from time to time is ILT (It’s lay time) who have been clicking up some impressive results.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_ilt.htm

Again they did have a bad March but if you look at the service over several months, you can see it is very profitable and overall the service has produced over 200 pts

(All profits are worked out with REAL BETFAIR PRICES ( BSP ) and deducted -5% Betfair Commission.)

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_ilt.htm

I like ILT because it is a simple service which is easy to follow and is very user friendly.

The demand for their service is high and I know from talking to them they are limiting subscriptions so I thought I better tell you in case you want to get a place on board.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_ilt.htm

You know I never recommend any product that hasn’t got a good back up service and I know they are always ready to help their customers.

So pop over and have a look.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/go_ilt.htm

The only thing I can do is re-iterate what I always say this time of year…

Be careful!

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm.

It’s a difficult month for horse racing.

March 30, 2010 By: admin Category: Horse Racing Articles

Good Morning

I managed to get a couple of rosettes the weekend and I was very pleased with Georgies performance.

I mentioned last week that this time of year can be a pain because it is difficult to read form. I actually mentioned to David that we probably should have waited a little longer before we started showing people Apache and Comanche, because it is bound to be a difficult month.

You can tell by the number of losses we have had by a “head” that we are just being caught out on the selections.

Anyway there is not much we can do now although we are still in profit at level stakes with Comanche, but I think we are struggling with Apache at the moment and getting close to it being a no profit month.

If you look at it in from a positive point of view though we have probably shown you the results at their worst and we are still in profit!

Let us see what happens next month. We will update the spreadsheet in a couple of days, so keep and eye on the spreadsheet.

http://www.cyobs.co.uk/resultsAC.zip

Here are today’s for selections…

Apache
14:30    Font    Midnight Chase
14:30    Font    Martys Mission

Comanche
Newcastle has been abandoned.

If you are a member of any of these services (http://www.cyobs.co.uk, http://www.spbxmas.com/index-spb.asp or http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/) then you can get these selections in the bonus section of member’s area.

I also mentioned last week I have been trying a place market lay system which at the moment is going reasonably well although it can be a bit risky sometimes. But I am learning something about the system everyday which is helping.

Sharing this system is something completely different because I am not sure what sort of person it would suit and I certainly wouldn’t want to let anyone try it.

We were talking about this a few weeks ago where I was trying to put people into groups based on their feelings about risk and the size of their banks.

In this case I think you would have to be in a very high risk/reward category and probably have at least a bank of £500 and be prepared to risk 20%.

It would be hard for me to feel comfortable to share a system where I wasn’t totally sure the people who were going to use it really did understand the risk involved.

Anyway it is a bit earlier to talk about this now because I am still in first test mode!

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
P.S. I know I keep saying it but Magic Bullet still hasn’t lost!
http://www.magicsys.co.uk/index-lc.asp