10th August 2009
I will admit that I had a pretty
lazy one myself. We had a long walk Saturday but Sunday I spent the whole day
resting in the garden. Do I feel guilty?...Nope!
Actually just a little because I
really wanted to do some work on my new method especially as I had another loss
Yep, I took on A P Mcoy and
lost. I know I should have known better but I just felt like there was a couple
of possible runners that could beat him.
Anyway I learned an important
lesson about favourites last week and I am going to adapt my method for the
horses and change the price range a little to compensate.
The one thing I have noticed
which seems to be even more prominent at the moment (unless that is just me) is
that if the favourite is under 2.0 then the runner closest is trading at around
6 or 7.00. You can see this clearly in the 14.45 Southwell, Duster. It's
another one of those races where all the tipsters think he is just about
You probably already know my
feelings on tipsters but still we can not just ignore everything they say and
although they may be wrong, I have lost 4 times so far going against them. So
maybe we should look at races where there is a little more indecision like the
14.30 Wolves and Dahakaa.
Dahakaa is trading at 2.3 and
his nearest rival (price wise) is West Leake Star 3.65. The tipster table is
showing a split as well. Although at 2.3 this runner is traing higher than I
like at least this is a race where we can see there is uncertainty.
There is another race that is
quite interesting today as well. Gene Autry in the 18.20 Wind trading at 1.9 at
the moment. His nearest rival is Bonheurs Art at 3.7. Now again most tipsters
have gone for Gene but there is a definite feeling that Bonheurs Art is capable
and the price reflects this. So unlike the other races I looked at last week
these two seem to be a better proposition and the ones more likely to have an
We know that horse trading under
2.00 do lose and that will still be part of my criteria but I am prepared to go
to about 2.5 as long as the next runner is within a couple of pts.
If both races stay as they are
without NR's then I may go on both but I am going to look seriously at taking
on Dahakaa. It's also good to see that John at
(check sponsored tip) agrees to.
On another note...
I met up with Brian and Graham
from http://www.laybackracing.co.uk/ last
week. You should already know that I love these guys back selections. Anyway
why we were chatting Graham mentioned that he had been using the
Betfair Tennis Trading method and finding a lot of the
techniques were really working.
I know I had a look at this a
while ago and still use one of the techniques now and then myself but I haven't
had a look at the others.
I would love to know if you have
used and if you found it useful.
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You can see my video rambles
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see it here:
Sorry no video today.
No video yesterday
is really to select "one a day" to
lay bet (http://www.laybetting.com/) on betfair or
betdaq, which should be the shortest price. David has set a maximum price limit
of 12/1 or 13 on betfair. The main rule (and one we have started to use across
a number of our systems) is that you should not bet if the reduction factor for
the race is 10% or more.
Worc, Contact Dancer 3rd 16/1
19:05 Muss, High Spice 4th 8/1
Almiqdaad 5th 7/1
15:45 Sthl, Perfect Citizen
20:20 Wind, Little Prudence
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6:55 Hayd, Laylas Hero 2.62 1st 5/4
Today: 7:30 Thsk,
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