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"The Deadly sins of Gambling"

These sins are the ones that prevent you making money and on many occasions help you lose your bank completely.

My favourite and one I know I probably go on about quite a bit and is the one I will start with.

"The Gambling Sin of impatience"

Impatience is a major problem among people who gamble, it is probably intertwined with greed as well, but lets see if we can spot when you are being impatient.

1. you get a new system and don't read the whole thing all the way through.

2. You don't paper test (new tips).

3. You stake to much to soon (greed as well)

4. You have a couple of losers then bail out (should have paper tested)

5. You don't stop you go for that "One more Win"

6. You don't write out a plan to follow.

Do you recognise any of these?

There are probably more but these are the main ones.

Here is a classical example of impatience...

You have a start of 200 bank and your being told to just try and make 1% of your bank a day for few years.

How many of you have carried this through for more than a month?

I bet it isn't many, but look at this.

If you take your 200 bank and win 1% everyday for around 240 days a year after 1 year it will be worth aprox 3000.
After 2 years 46,000
After 3 years 733,000

Ok I know that the stakes will be getting a bit silly in the 3rd year but the point is that just after a couple of years you could be making your 50, 100 or 150 a day which I know most of you would like, but I am afraid impatience gets to you long before this happens.

Why?

Because you know that if you make a little more now then that 2 years will get here a bit quicker, unfortunately it won't because when you take the extra risk through impatience, you will end up losing.

This game is all about risk, so you have to avoid giving yourself extra by taking unnecessary chances, impatience will not help you.

"The Gambling Sin of Greed"

Greed is probably the easiest sin to notice but it is the one that can really hurt if not kept in check.

If you are suffering from the gambling sin of greed then one or all of these will be happening to you.

1. Not stopping as soon as you have met your target (going for that "one more win")

2. Betting on a "Dead Cert"

3. Staking more of your bank than is sensible.

4. Looking for the "holy Grail" or the "pot of Gold" or the system that will win 100% of the time.

Do you recognise one of these?

With impatience and greed together you have NOT got a chance of winning if one doesn't get you the other will. But greed can really hurt because this is the one that stops you thinking through your next move.

Greed just seems to take over all common sense.

How many gambling sites do you know that have this in the title.

"make 100's a day"

Quite a few I suspect, but common sense tells you that this is just not possible, so why do they use lines like this in the title?

Because they know greed takes over and kicks common sense out of the window!

To beat greed you have to use patience and common sense, if you feel greed kicking in then take a deep breath, get up have a walk around and then ask yourself, "am I making this decision based on facts or fiction made up from my greed?".

"The Gambling Sin of not Planning

There is a saying...

"Fail to plan, Plan to fail"

You can have good tips but if you don't hava a good plan to follow them with, then sooner or later you will lose big time.

Planning can stop impatience and greed (remember those) in their tracks because your know what to do in all instances of betting.

There isn't much to plan for and here are most of them.

1. Plan for when you win.
2. Plan for when you lose.
3. Plan for when you find new tips or are offered a "dead cert"
4. Plan for when you go on the tilt (chasing losses)
5. Plan for a bank wipeout (which shouldn't happen if you have planned)
6. Plan for human nature.

Let me give yo an example.

I get offered selections everyday from all sorts of places, some good some not so good, so I have a plan to deal with them.

1. If I haven't received tips from this person or place before then they go in my "watch" folder, even if I am told "it can not lose/win".

2. If I have received tips before but I have still not decided if they are good enough to use they stay in that folder, but if they have been doing very well, then they go in to my "take notice" folder.

3. If I am really getting excited about the selections I know I am human (i think) and sooner or later I will decide to use them. So I have planned for this and have a "risk Bank". All my tips go through this bank before I ever use them with my main banks money.

So I always take some of my winnings from my main bank and put it in my risk bank.

Now this may not be the best way to do things but it works for me and I try to plan for all possible scenario's.

There are other things to plan for.

Time off from betting (it's weekends for me)
Maximum lay odds I will take (this will depend on tips)
Maximum loss. (this will depend on tips)

I am sure by now you are getting the idea, make plans and stick to them but be flexible enough to change them when they are not working!

"The Gambling Sin of Jealousy"

Actually I must admit this is not one of mine (not that I remember) but I had a few readers write in with it, so I guessed it must affect some people.

Jealousy is when you either think or you know someone is making more than you, which causes you to make betting decisions to try and catch them.

We have all been in forums where somebody just said they won this or traded that and made a bundle and immediatly you start to wonder if you can copy (maybe I do remember), so you go off and try to copy their results only to go off and try, then lose!

Jealousy can make you break all your plans (sounds a bit like greed) and cause you to do all sorts of silly things based on "hear say".

When you here someone boasting, ignore the figures because it is human nature (especially in this game) to over inflate wins and to also simplyfy them, just give them a pat on the back and go about your business, using the plans you already have in place.

Even if you know for sure this person is winning what they say they are, don't rush in, try to find out what they are doing make plans test and if it is true, then you can enjoy the benefits but in a controlled manner which may even insure even better success.

"The Gambling Sin of not paper trading"

Yeah I know this comes under "not planning" but I reckon it is a big sin on it's own as well and it amazes me the amount of people who do not do it, even for a week!

Now people will argue that past results will tell them all they need to know in order to work out a plan.

I have to disagree for these reasons.

1. Past results may not be 100% accurate.
2. Past results nearly always show SP only.

Paper trading gives you a good understanding of what to expect from real life prices, the best times to bet and if they really are performing as well as expected.

My own observation of how people interpret past results leads me to believe it is essential for people to make a big effort to paper trade and see for themselves, how their bank will be affected by the results as they happen.

Paper trading is the first step in planning so if you do not paper trade then you can not plan and we know where this leads!

Also if you can not bring yourself to paper trade then you are also suffering from impatience, so if we look at it that way if you fail to paper trade then you are going to fail!

The Gambling Sin of Chasing

"Don't chase losers" how many times have you heard that?

In poker there is an expression "Going on tilt", this means that after you have had one or two bad breaks you start betting on just about any cards to try and make up some of your losses, but you tend to end up losing a lot more.

People do it all the time in horseracing as well because they have an unexpected loss and so then go looking for a quick win to get them back on track, but instead they often find they have lost even more.

Winning at this game means you can not afford to go on tilt just as you can not afford not to paper trade, plan or show impatience or greed.

The moment you chase losses you are forgetting everything you have learned and you have just turned back the clock to when you were a green punter.

Chasing means you haven't taken the emotion out of betting the losses still hurt and cause you to do all sorts of silly things. If you are having problems with this one you have a couple of options after a loss.

1. Turn of your computer, don't go near a bookie and do something else.
2. Take a deep breath, review your plan and except it is just part of what we do.

Do not forget that great saying.

"In horse racing there is always tomorrow"

Because it is true!

The Gambling Sin of emotion

There is no doubt about it whenever there is money involved there is also an emotional aspect and the sport of kings seems to maginify it.

Emotions are very handy things to have and can be quite useful but not here where they can make you do some really silly things!

The problem with emotions is they make you do things without asking your brain if it is a good idea and the result is that you lose.

Greed is an emotion that causes you to just go that little bit futher without having all the facts.

Fear is an emotion which creates doubts and stops you from making decisions based on sound judgement and information.

To be succesfull you have to try to take out as much emotion as you can or you will end up making very poor decisions, which will cost you in the long run.

The mindset you need to adopt is that there will be winners and there will be losers, that is all part of what you are doing just like sometimes you will make mistakes.

Learn from everything that happens, find out why it happend and plan for if it happens again.

Don't let emotions rule you except to drive you to become better and more knowledgable, so that you end up on the winning side rather than the losing!

The Gambling Sin of Short Term Thinking

This is courtesy of Dave, a reader.

I think a medium to long term approach to betting is absolutely vital, particularly (but not only) where win systems are concerned, as you tend to have losing streaks that test your faith.

I also believe short-term thinking underpins a lot of other mistakes - greed, not testing and so on.

You only have to look around Adrian Massey's custom reports, as I know you frequently do, to see what I mean. How many ways are there to find a system returning 120% on a 9-year view? You think, "Great, I'll just follow those, and almost certainly make a profit, based on years of solid evidence over thousands of analysed races.

" You may well be right, but then you see the maximum losing streaks - 29 losses in a row, for example.

How many gamblers would, A) Bail out after 20 consecutive losses, or, B) Set up an appropriate bank, stay the course, understand and trust the statistics, and stay disciplined? I think we all know that sadly maybe 80-90% (mal 98%) take the first option, and this route doesn't make money. The second can be scary and requires great patience, but can make decent overall returns, always assuming good selections are made. We're not trying to get rich overnight here, which is a whole different topic....

I maintain that the key to all this is to think long term and treat your betting bank as an investment, and your system - back or lay - as the investment vehicle. Also, using bookies, Betfair or SP+ as markets to shop around for the best returns on that investment can make a massive difference to your overall profit margins. We should never underestimate this factor. Personally, I find that Betfair has great odds for backing outsiders, but the standard wisdom of a 20% difference falls down at shorter prices. This is an average only, and is heavily skewed in both directions. If my selection methods throw up a shorter-priced favourite, I would tend to use SP+, so that a return one "roll" over SP is guaranteed. (eg. at 2/1 you actually get on at 9/4). Doing this is like getting a few extra winners every month, for almost no extra effort.

Thanks Dave, does anyone else have a Deadly Sin to add?

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