13th January 2009
Sorry there will be no email's
for the next two days. I am off to a two day seminar and will not be back until
I decided to play around with
the "Double your Chance" spread sheet yesterday so we could at least get a
better idea about how the selections are doing. Now I am pretty sure everything
is as it should be.
As you can see now I have made
the calculation more automated. The profit on the second runner only, is not
quite as high as I worked out (roughly) last week but it is still a respectable
492 pts which would be very nice in anyones book.
What surprised me more was that
the system made profit on the favourites as well with just over 21 pts, which I
think is quite respectable for such low odds. So looking at the two together
you could easily put a point on each and get quite a good return if the results
I also took out all the
selections we had before I started showing you, which is is everything before
the 1st of December 2008. We showed a loss of 3.30 pts on the best priced
runner but a profit of 104.21 pts on the second selection. So that's 100pts
profit since I have been showing them to you at level stakes.
Just to round things off if you
look at the selections from the the 2nd to the 10th of January then profit on
the best priced selection would have been 4.15 pts and on the second 5.04,
although yesterday was a little bad, so that would have taken these down a bit.
But we are still in profit at a time when there are difficult racing
"Stop at a winner" is also
showing quite good results although the profit is on the second selections. I
have only worked out the profit at level stakes on both at the moment because I
need to write in the dutching calculations. Anyway the second selection is
showing 263.32 pts but the first is showing a loss of 1.50pts.
I would still say this is a
healthy profit but not as good as level staking all the selections but I would
still like to see how it works with the dutching calculations.
Whichever way you look at it
there certainly seems to be profit here so the next thing to look at is if we
can improve the return by using a staking plan.
Now when I mention staking plans
I get different responses but one of the ones that always comes my way is.."You
can not make an unprofitable system profitable by introducing a staking plan.".
Although I don't completely agree with this statement, I do understand the
sentiment and for safety reasons you should acknowledge you understand it
Anyway in this case we are
showing a level stakes profit so we should be able to come up with someway of
improving our return. I am not sure we need to look at the second runner
although that could be really interesting but I would have thought we should
concentrate on the favourite.
I resume this conversation
Friday but if you haven't signed up to get the "Double your Chance" selections
then remember you can do here.
Catch you again on
Guest Selection ("Double
your chances" )
Please remember this is a test, please just watch
the selections at the moment.
The idea really behind this system is to stop
at a winner, but I want to show what the selections are like over the period I
show them to you.
(Stakes based on a £10 dutch at Betfair prices
1.50 Fak: Carruthers EP 1.31 1st 2/11
/Carrick Oscar EP 5.8 6th 5/1
3.10 Wolv: Itsher EP 3.2 EP 3.2 5th 13/8 /
Kheley EP 5.8 2nd 5/1
4.40 Wolv: Barwell Bridge EP 1.91 2nd 4/6 / Misyaar EP
3.6 6th 2/1
3.10 G.L. Benedict Spirit EP 4.00 /Taikoo EP
3.30 South: Ultimate EP 1.72 /Benozzo Gozzoli EP 8.00
4.40 G.L. Joe
Jo Star EP 1.75 /Scutch Mill EP 3.8
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Time: 14:10 Race: Great Leighs
Time: 14:30 Race: Southwell
Tip: Trick or Two
Time: 16:00 Race: Southwell
Tip: Triple Axel
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Time: 15:50 Race:
Folkstone Tip: Ryde Back
Comment for this tip: Early BF 2.36
16:10 Race: Great Leighs
Tip: Open Sesame
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Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay
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Today: Finally we have a selection! 14.50 Folk, Blueberry Ice
Please Note: The lay betting
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2:10 Wolv, Desert Dreamer 3rd 4/5
Today. 2:10 GrLe, Desert Strike
Remember this is just a test and we are paper
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"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
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