29th July 2009
I thought I would have a go at
Cricket yesterday and see if there was a match that I felt would be worth
having a look at. For various reasons I ended up looking at the Lancashire V
Somerset Twenty20 cup match.
I decided to bet against
Lancashire and took a quite early price of 1.8 but by the off this had gone out
to nearly 1.9 giving me an "easy money" trade if I wanted it. The match was
posponed until today because of the weather and the back price is now 1.92.
If I take the profit now I will
make just over 5% on my original stake after Betfairs charges so I may just
wait. I had my reasons for taking on Lancashire and they haven't changed. I
also suspect that the weather is going to play havoc with this match for at
least another day or two so I don't think I have to make a decision straight
I was talking about my betting
"cycle" yesterday and was saying that because of the small % of my bank that I
use per stake I can go through quite a few losers before hurting my bank.
But I have been thinking about
this a lot and have decided that I am going to change it a little. The whole
purpose of this method is to focus my daily betting and I have a target of 1
win in 3.
Now I know it is not going to be
easy to achieve this so I have decided to that to help me focus even more my
cycle will be 3 bets. This means if I lose all 3 bets that I think I should
lose then I stop that cycle and start again.
Knowing that if I don't win
within 3 bets I will actually lose that stake money should make me really think
about what events to choose and do my home work. Yeah I know I am not going to
win every cycle but doing it this way even if I do lose 3 in a row it will not
be to difficult to make it back after a couple of winning cycles.
I am trying to finish of the
download I promised you about "creating your own betting system". I am almost
there but I just wanted to do a video as well, so I should have it finished
within a couple of days.
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You can see my video rambles
here. If you missed yesterday's rambles you can
see it here:
Sorry no video today.
No video yesterday
is really to select "one a day" to
lay bet (http://www.laybetting.com/) on betfair or
betdaq, which should be the shortest price. David has set a maximum price limit
of 12/1 or 13 on betfair. The main rule (and one we have started to use across
a number of our systems) is that you should not bet if the reduction factor for
the race is 10% or more.
16:55 Bev, Union
Island 5th 4/1 (lotd
17:45 Good, Sheer Force 9th 8/1
21:15 Perth, Desert
Soul 7th 20/1
15:50 Redc Canwinn
18:20 Sand Cordell
Sand, Red Suede Shoes
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No bet if the reduction factor is 10% or more.
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Comments for today: Good morning, we have 2 Lays only today after Perth was
abandoned earlier this morning.
It has played havoc with our selections
but after due consideration we are left with these 2.
Time: 19:30 Race:
Points Value: 7.6
Comment for this tip: To
recover yesterdays loss.
Time: 20:35 Race: Sandown
Points Value: 1
Comment for this tip: Only if first
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a
day from my Lay
Today: 19.10 Leic, Cwm Rhondd
Please Note: The lay betting
system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for
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Back test system ( "A 'back'
system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available
as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
3:25 Gdwd, Main Aim 8th 6/5
Today: 16:00 Gdwd,
Braveheart Move EP 5.2
Remember this is just a test and we are paper
testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information (" Here
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"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
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