29th July 2009
I thought I would have a go at Cricket yesterday and see if there was a match that I felt would be worth having a look at. For various reasons I ended up looking at the Lancashire V Somerset Twenty20 cup match.
I decided to bet against Lancashire and took a quite early price of 1.8 but by the off this had gone out to nearly 1.9 giving me an "easy money" trade if I wanted it. The match was posponed until today because of the weather and the back price is now 1.92.
If I take the profit now I will make just over 5% on my original stake after Betfairs charges so I may just wait. I had my reasons for taking on Lancashire and they haven't changed. I also suspect that the weather is going to play havoc with this match for at least another day or two so I don't think I have to make a decision straight away!
I was talking about my betting "cycle" yesterday and was saying that because of the small % of my bank that I use per stake I can go through quite a few losers before hurting my bank.
But I have been thinking about this a lot and have decided that I am going to change it a little. The whole purpose of this method is to focus my daily betting and I have a target of 1 win in 3.
Now I know it is not going to be easy to achieve this so I have decided to that to help me focus even more my cycle will be 3 bets. This means if I lose all 3 bets that I think I should lose then I stop that cycle and start again.
Knowing that if I don't win within 3 bets I will actually lose that stake money should make me really think about what events to choose and do my home work. Yeah I know I am not going to win every cycle but doing it this way even if I do lose 3 in a row it will not be to difficult to make it back after a couple of winning cycles.
I am trying to finish of the download I promised you about "creating your own betting system". I am almost there but I just wanted to do a video as well, so I should have it finished within a couple of days.
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You can see my video rambles here.
If you missed yesterday's rambles you can see it here:
Sorry no video today.
No video yesterday
The idea is really to select "one a day" to lay bet (http://www.laybetting.com/) on betfair or betdaq, which should be the shortest price. David has set a maximum price limit of 12/1 or 13 on betfair. The main rule (and one we have started to use across a number of our systems) is that you should not bet if the reduction factor for the race is 10% or more.
16:55 Bev, Union Island 5th 4/1 (lotd
17:45 Good, Sheer Force 9th 8/1
21:15 Perth, Desert Soul 7th 20/1
15:50 Redc Canwinn
18:20 Sand Cordell
19:30 Sand, Red Suede Shoes
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No bet if the reduction factor is 10% or more.
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Comments for today: Good morning, we have 2 Lays only today after Perth was abandoned earlier this morning.
It has played havoc with our selections but after due consideration we are left with these 2.
Brian & Graham
Time: 19:30 Race: Sandown
Points Value: 7.6
Comment for this tip: To recover yesterdays loss.
Time: 20:35 Race: Sandown
Tip: Harlestone Snake
Points Value: 1
Comment for this tip: Only if first wins
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")
18.40 No selection
Today: 19.10 Leic, Cwm Rhondd
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.
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Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
3:25 Gdwd, Main Aim 8th 6/5
Today: 16:00 Gdwd, Braveheart Move EP 5.2
Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
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Have a good days racing.
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