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8 rules that should help you succeed at Dutch Betting.
There are plenty of dutching calculators available but it is always handy to know how they work, especially if you want to work on your own ideas. First of all, you want to find the horse’s % chance of winning and you do this by dividing 100 by the horse’s odds. 100 / 4.5 = 22% Just in case you don’t know. At the top of the odds column on Betfair you will see there is a % figure. On the back side, this will normally be above 100% and on the lay it will be below 100% this is commonly known as the “Overound”. This means that if you backed every horse in the race to win you would lose whatever the % is over 100. There can be instances when this figure may drop below the 100, but I can tell you from experience, you are unlikely to get a bet on every selection at that instance. You also have to take into account Betfair’s commission. Anyway back to the Dutch calculations. Let’s say we were going to Dutch 3 horses in a race. Horse A = 3.5 Next, you convert the odds to their percentage chance by dividing into 100: Horse A = 28.57% (100 divided by 3.5 equals 28.57) So there should be (all things being equal) that we have a 73.57% chance off one of our runners winning the race. Now to find out what to bet on each runner you divide the horses’ individual percentage by the overall percentage figure – then multiply by the total amount you want to stake on the event (£20 in this example). Horse A 28.57 / 73.57 x 20 = 7.76 And it is as easy as that. 1. Know how to select your race. many races are totally unsuitable for dutching and it is difficult to know for sure until just before the off. Don’t pick races with over 16 runners or with short prices or joint favs. 2. Usually typical races are handicaps with between 10 and 16 runners with a favourite at 5-2 or greater. Remember, the skill is to delete the horses that can’t win and identify the value bets from the remaining horses. 3. If the favourite is a reasonable price it can be included in the Dutch but usually only as a break-even/saver bet. 4. There is a temptation to take the easy option and use the first three or for in the betting but better returns can be achieved by selecting horses that have good trainer and jockey form at the meeting or at all meetings. Be flexible and willing to dutch between 2 and 5 horses but always ensure that each gives a break-even or profit situation. Don’t chase your losses but look for a long-term result. 5. Using Betfair and using a mixture of Dutching and spreading you can even improve your chances of profits by obtaining the best prices or even backing place only. Smaller returns but more consistent but I didn’t enjoy it as some/most prices I took were the worst not the best. 6. When Dutching you must adjust your stake according to the price of the horses involved. I usually make my selections from the racing post based on morning SP and a 10-point stake. Then try to better those odds on Betfair. e.g fav 5-2 bet 3pts return 7.5 pts + stake profit 0.5pts. 2nd fav or fancy 4-1 stake 3 pts return 12pts + stake 15 pts profit 5pts 3rd fancy 6-1 2pts return 12pts +stake profit 4pts 4th fancy 10-1 2pts or 4th and 5th fancy depending on price 1pt or less. The profits will be small but consistent. 7. Aim to get the most benefit from the horse you fancy the most as this retains your interest in the system. 8. Remember that the returns are consistent but small, so leaving out the fav in every race will give you a regular 1 in 5 guaranteed loss. So try to include the fav provided that the price is not to short. I usually find if the fav won last time out especially if it has won 2 or 3 on the trot then you can safely leave it out. |