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14th November 2007 2007
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
I spent the evening at Betfair last night talking about
some of the new technology they will be launching soon.
They are going
to start offering an SP (starting price) which will be worked out just at the
off. So very much like you can do with the bookies, very soon you will be able
to just ask for Betfairs SP. They feel that the Betfair SP will be more
profitable than the bookies SP even after their 5% and the other difference is
that you can have an SP on the lay side as well, but you will have to stipulate
your maximum liability because you will not know the final price you will be
getting until the off.
I will tell you more next week but I just thought
you would be interested to know what may be coming next.
One other new
thing I have been meaning to talk to you about is that you can now bet on the
place market "in running".
Have you tried this market?
I would
love to hear from anyone who has tried betting on this market and what
strategies you may be using.
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I have
another article from Psycho
How Accurate Are Your Estimates?
So, you have devised a system for laying or backing horses, dogs, football
teams etc. From your testing, you have determined that it is profitable. But,
you haven't started to use it in anger yet - you are still testing it. Before
you start using it to place real money on the selections generated by your
system, you need to know two things:
1. How much more data do you need
to collect?
2. How confident should you be in your system?
Ok,
let's answer these questions.
Let's say that you have tested your
system on a number of races or matches and have measured its strike
rate.
If we take the square root of the number of matches or races and
divide it into 100, it will give us the accuracy of the strike rate.
Does this help us, if so, how, or is it a complete and utter waste of time and
effort?
The answer is yes - it will help us and no - it isn't a waste
of time.
Why?
It will provide us with a mathematical
measurement of how much confidence we can place in the accuracy of the system's
strike rate - as measured by your testing.
To make things a little
clearer, let's take an actual example.
Let's say that you have tested
your system on 100 races or matches and have found that the strike is
80%.
If we take the square root of 100 (the number of matches or
races), we get 10. If we divide 10 into 100, we get 10. Therefore, the accuracy
of our strike rate (80%) is 10%. In other words, the long-term strike rate is
actually 80% +/- 10%. So, the strike rate could be as low as 80% - 10% and
could be as high as 80% + 10%. Therefore, the long-term strike rate of the
system is somewhere between 70% and 90%.
As you can see, the more races
or matches that you test your system on, the more accurate your actual strike
will be.
Now let's say that you have tested your system on 900 races or
matches and have found that the strike is still 80%.
If we take the
square root of 900 (the number of matches or races), we get 30. If we divide 30
into 100, we get 3.33. Therefore, the accuracy of your strike rate (80%) is
3.33%. In other words, the long-term strike rate is actually 80% +/- 3.33%. So,
the strike rate could be as low as 80% - 3.33% and could be as high as 80% +
3.33%. Therefore, the long-term strike rate of the system is somewhere between
76.67% and 83.33%.
If a strike rate of 76.67% (the lowest estimated
strike rate) is high enough to produce a profit, you can confidently start
using your system to place actual bets.
If a strike rate of 76.67% (the
lowest estimated strike rate) is NOT high enough to produce a profit, you have
two options:
1. Collect more data.
2. Put your system in the
bin.
Note that I showed you how to determine if a system is profitable
in my previous article.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/08-11-2007.htm
So, you can now see how to determine how accurate the calculated strike rate of
your system is and whether it is reasonable to use your system in anger by
simply using the number of races or matches that you have tested your system
on.
Contact Author
If you have any questions or comments on the
content of this article and wish to contact the author, please go to:
www.laythepsychicway.com
--------------------------
These
are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on paper for the moment, since
it is still in testing. However results have been very positive so far, it has
had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite quickly:
Laying:
15/11/2007, 11.28, Sheffield BAGS, Stormy Bond, 2,
15/11/2007, 12.27, Sheffield BAGS, Joey Blower, 4,
15/11/2007, 12.42,
Sheffield BAGS, Gate Lodge Maya, 1,
15/11/2007, 13.19, Sunderland BAGS,
Duffle Coat, 2,
15/11/2007, 13.33, Sunderland BAGS, Flashing Light, 5,
15/11/2007, 14.08, Romford BAGS, Boomsexpress, 1,
15/11/2007, 14.37,
Crayford BAGS, Tuttles Polly, 3,
15/11/2007, 14.57, Crayford BAGS,
Reenview Daisy, 5,
15/11/2007, 18.39, Newcastle BAGS, Shawwood Senator,
2,
15/11/2007, 18.56, Newcastle BAGS, Pontop Brave, 4,
15/11/2007,
19.48, Sittingbourne BAGS, Wits End, 5,
15/11/2007, 19.58, Newcastle BAGS,
Iveston Hells, 3,
15/11/2007, 20.47, Newcastle BAGS, Pontop Playboy, 5,
15/11/2007, 21.07, Sittingbourne BAGS, Confused Rooney, 2,
15/11/2007, 22,
Newcastle BAGS, Il Divo, 5,
15/11/2007, 22.15, Newcastle BAGS, Aint She
Super, 5,
There is no staking involved just level stakes. I will
get Gary to send me all his results so far so that we can put them in to a web
page.
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Will be talking a little more about the
Voodoo system system tomorrow.
Don't forget you need
to be able to bet all day to use this system.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/go_voodoo.htm
2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and
Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.
Yesterday
No selections
Here are today's (win bets)
1330 Ludlow
SOVIET SCEPTRE betfair 2.92
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started
20-11-2006
This is a
Betting
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 51.62
Points new
system (30/07/07) + 19.73
Yesterday:
13.50, Bangor on Dee, Fencote,
EP-2.4 1st
Today's:
14.20, Lingfield, Sweet Mischief, EP- 4.6
(*)
15.40, Taunton, Caislean na deirge, EP-2.14
(*) No bet under
new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday:
Normal: 14:40, Wolverhampton, Speagle 2nd 6/5
Pts
2007: +3.88
Top Choice: 15:00, Lingfield, O`Toole 50pts 1st
2/5
Pts 2007: +0.53
Bank =656.45
Today:
Normal: 13:00, Ludlow , Chrysander
Top Choice: 15:00, Ludlow, Lake
Imperial 25pts
(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice
selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts
is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the
22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what
you are looking for...
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
Lay Betting
System Bet
Yesterday:
No Selection
Today: 13.40 Taun,
Five Two
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in
1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.
You can
purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Bismarx(BVR)
As at 8 o'clock this morning
the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for
market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where
non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay
when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the other
runner's.
Quit when your profit target has been reached. Prepare for
liability in advance - always plan your next move first.
13.20 Ling
GRAND CAIMAN @1.9
13.30 Ludl SOVIET SCEPTRE @2.7
13.55 Clon JUSTIFIED
@2.2
14.20 Ling PRAXITELES @2.5
14.40 Taun GOLDEN ALCHEMIST @2.2 Bismarx(BVR)
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
http://www.laybetting.com/session.xml
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
http://www.laybetting.com/mals-grey-sys.htm
9. Ace Naps - (Back
Tip)
Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I
are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem
to win a lot.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/ace-naps.htm
How do you reserve your copy?
Simple, send an email to me with
"Reserve my copy of Ace Naps" in subject.
Clicking
here should do it automatically but please make sure that "Reserve my copy
of Ace Naps" is in the subject.
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days
racing.
Malcolm
Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information
provided.
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.
You
can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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