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14th November 2007 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I spent the evening at Betfair last night talking about some of the new technology they will be launching soon.

They are going to start offering an SP (starting price) which will be worked out just at the off. So very much like you can do with the bookies, very soon you will be able to just ask for Betfairs SP. They feel that the Betfair SP will be more profitable than the bookies SP even after their 5% and the other difference is that you can have an SP on the lay side as well, but you will have to stipulate your maximum liability because you will not know the final price you will be getting until the off.

I will tell you more next week but I just thought you would be interested to know what may be coming next.

One other new thing I have been meaning to talk to you about is that you can now bet on the place market "in running".

Have you tried this market?

I would love to hear from anyone who has tried betting on this market and what strategies you may be using.

I have another article from Psycho

How Accurate Are Your Estimates?

So, you have devised a system for laying or backing horses, dogs, football teams etc. From your testing, you have determined that it is profitable. But, you haven't started to use it in anger yet - you are still testing it. Before you start using it to place real money on the selections generated by your system, you need to know two things:

1. How much more data do you need to collect?
2. How confident should you be in your system?

Ok, let's answer these questions.

Let's say that you have tested your system on a number of races or matches and have measured its strike rate.

If we take the square root of the number of matches or races and divide it into 100, it will give us the accuracy of the strike rate.

Does this help us, if so, how, or is it a complete and utter waste of time and effort?

The answer is yes - it will help us and no - it isn't a waste of time.


It will provide us with a mathematical measurement of how much confidence we can place in the accuracy of the system's strike rate - as measured by your testing.

To make things a little clearer, let's take an actual example.

Let's say that you have tested your system on 100 races or matches and have found that the strike is 80%.

If we take the square root of 100 (the number of matches or races), we get 10. If we divide 10 into 100, we get 10. Therefore, the accuracy of our strike rate (80%) is 10%. In other words, the long-term strike rate is actually 80% +/- 10%. So, the strike rate could be as low as 80% - 10% and could be as high as 80% + 10%. Therefore, the long-term strike rate of the system is somewhere between 70% and 90%.

As you can see, the more races or matches that you test your system on, the more accurate your actual strike will be.

Now let's say that you have tested your system on 900 races or matches and have found that the strike is still 80%.

If we take the square root of 900 (the number of matches or races), we get 30. If we divide 30 into 100, we get 3.33. Therefore, the accuracy of your strike rate (80%) is 3.33%. In other words, the long-term strike rate is actually 80% +/- 3.33%. So, the strike rate could be as low as 80% - 3.33% and could be as high as 80% + 3.33%. Therefore, the long-term strike rate of the system is somewhere between 76.67% and 83.33%.

If a strike rate of 76.67% (the lowest estimated strike rate) is high enough to produce a profit, you can confidently start using your system to place actual bets.

If a strike rate of 76.67% (the lowest estimated strike rate) is NOT high enough to produce a profit, you have two options:

1. Collect more data.
2. Put your system in the bin.

Note that I showed you how to determine if a system is profitable in my previous article.

So, you can now see how to determine how accurate the calculated strike rate of your system is and whether it is reasonable to use your system in anger by simply using the number of races or matches that you have tested your system on.

Contact Author

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These are for laying, I do suggest people only do this on paper for the moment, since it is still in testing. However results have been very positive so far, it has had 1 or 2 bad days, but has recovered them quite quickly:


15/11/2007, 11.28, Sheffield BAGS, Stormy Bond, 2,
15/11/2007, 12.27, Sheffield BAGS, Joey Blower, 4,
15/11/2007, 12.42, Sheffield BAGS, Gate Lodge Maya, 1,
15/11/2007, 13.19, Sunderland BAGS, Duffle Coat, 2,
15/11/2007, 13.33, Sunderland BAGS, Flashing Light, 5,
15/11/2007, 14.08, Romford BAGS, Boomsexpress, 1,
15/11/2007, 14.37, Crayford BAGS, Tuttles Polly, 3,
15/11/2007, 14.57, Crayford BAGS, Reenview Daisy, 5,
15/11/2007, 18.39, Newcastle BAGS, Shawwood Senator, 2,
15/11/2007, 18.56, Newcastle BAGS, Pontop Brave, 4,
15/11/2007, 19.48, Sittingbourne BAGS, Wits End, 5,
15/11/2007, 19.58, Newcastle BAGS, Iveston Hells, 3,
15/11/2007, 20.47, Newcastle BAGS, Pontop Playboy, 5,
15/11/2007, 21.07, Sittingbourne BAGS, Confused Rooney, 2,
15/11/2007, 22, Newcastle BAGS, Il Divo, 5,
15/11/2007, 22.15, Newcastle BAGS, Aint She Super, 5,

There is no staking involved just level stakes. I will get Gary to send me all his results so far so that we can put them in to a web page.
Will be talking a little more about the Voodoo system system tomorrow.

Don't forget you need to be able to bet all day to use this system.

2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very consistent.

No selections

Here are today's (win bets)
1330 Ludlow SOVIET SCEPTRE betfair 2.92

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 51.62
Points new system (30/07/07) + 19.73

13.50, Bangor on Dee, Fencote, EP-2.4 1st

14.20, Lingfield, Sweet Mischief, EP- 4.6 (*)
15.40, Taunton, Caislean na deirge, EP-2.14

(*) No bet under new system idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal:  14:40, Wolverhampton, Speagle 2nd 6/5
Pts 2007: +3.88
Top Choice:  15:00, Lingfield, O`Toole 50pts 1st 2/5
Pts 2007: +0.53
Bank =656.45

Normal: 13:00, Ludlow , Chrysander
Top Choice: 15:00, Ludlow, Lake Imperial 25pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what you are looking for...
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
No Selection

Today: 13.40 Taun, Five Two

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

As at 8 o'clock this morning the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the other runner's.
Quit when your profit target has been reached. Prepare for liability in advance - always plan your next move first.

13.20 Ling GRAND CAIMAN @1.9
13.30 Ludl SOVIET SCEPTRE @2.7
13.55 Clon JUSTIFIED @2.2
14.20 Ling PRAXITELES @2.5
14.40 Taun GOLDEN ALCHEMIST @2.2


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

Sorry no more Greyhound Selections after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the Grey Horse bot then you can still load the session file in.

Or there are still a few copies of the system left.

9. Ace Naps - (Back Tip)

Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem to win a lot.

How do you reserve your copy?

Simple, send an email to me with "Reserve my copy of Ace Naps" in subject.

Clicking here should do it automatically but please make sure that "Reserve my copy of Ace Naps" is in the subject.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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