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23rd April 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I didn't quite finish the decorating, well it was very nice outside so I decided to enjoy the weather instead.

Shaun (Guest Selections 2) told me over the weekend that I had got the staking for his selections slightly wrong.

What I should have told you is that instead of using 5% of your bank as the stake, you take 5% of your bank, and then divide it by the available odds and that's your stake.

So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £50 by 2 making a £25 stake.
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available odds.

Sorry about that, anyway lets see how they perform this week.

We talked a bit about trading last week and if you don't mind I would like to carry the themem through to this week.

I mentioned that I think that there are 3 main types of trading.

1. Pure trading. This is where you watch an event and trade based on prices, volume and many other factors.

2. Risk Trading. This where based on a system or idea you back or lay on a market hoping that it will move your way to allow you to trade out and "green light" for profit.

3. Incidental or opportunity trading. This is where you may have made a bet and then you see the price move in your favour and so trade out some or all of your originally bet to lock in profit or lessen your exposure.

Risk or incidental trading is what facinates me the most and as you can see from Fridays Grey Horse bot Screen Shot, it can be quite profitable even with small bets.

Last week I moved my tick value to 6, so I may move it another 1 tick today to see how that effects the results.

There is a lot of racing today because we have a latish evening race at Windsor so there should be a lot of opportunties.

One other thing I have been considering is backing first. The thing is I can see that most of the horses I lay will go out a little during the running, but what I can not see is the prices inproving very often, unless the runner is out in front most of the time.

I wonder that at the odds we are laying at wether it is worth chancing backing first. I think it is something I may have to test although it is not a thought I relish!

2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been receiving some win tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.

There are two selections Best and Next best. You can look at best only or follow both. Shaun suggest that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he chases any losses onto the next selection.

I am going to start with a £500 bank.
What you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case £50.00 and then divide it by the available odds and that's your stake.
So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £50 by 2 making a £25 stake.
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available odds.

Let's see what happens.
No Selection
Bank = £550.00

Here are todays.(Don't forget win bets)

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 16.47

15.15 Newbury, Monzante, EP 2.22 3rd
18.00 Hereford, Viscount Rossini EP 3.45 6th

No Selections

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Normal: 15:50, Newbury, Eternal Path 3rd 10/11
Pts 2007: - 1.95
Top Choice: 19:00, Hereford, High Life 50pts 3rd 4/7
Pts 2007: -3.62
Bank = 613.99pts

Normal:  18:55, Windsor, Gyroscope
Top Choice: 15:00 Hexham, Poker De Sivola 100pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 50pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 11/04/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
The Pro Lay System An easy to follow quick to learn system that can make you money and comes with resale rights.

Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
Yesterday: (Friday)
No Selection.

Today: 3.30  Hex  Mister Magnum

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
The Golden Egg Lay

Selection 1: Plumpton 3.20 Classic Role
Selection 2: Pontefract 5.10Torrens
Selection 3: Sedgefield 5.40 Plemont Bay
Selection 4: Sedgefield 6.40 Bob Bites Backs
Selection 5: Sedgefield 7.10Polar Gale

Staking: Please Note: We have a No Bet rule if the horse is trading at 5/1 or over. If you have a bank of £500 you divide it by 50 giving you a stake of £10 so your level stake would be £10 on each selection for that week.

The Golden Egg Lay

8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

After playing around with selections I have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are from the original and tighter system, I am not using these now.
Udate. I am now stopping at the first winner and changing my stop loss to £16.00 although I think this may be to high and we should also stop at the first loser and call it a day. Only time will tell.

Yesterday:  (Friday)
Walthamstow BAGS, 11.42, Soviet Charm, 4 5th 6/1
Walthamstow BAGS, 12.12, Appletown Drogba, 5 6th 10/1
Hall Green BAGS, 12.32, Blushing Jewel, 6 3rd 11/4
Walthamstow BAGS, 12.58, Hellroad Minnie, 2 1st 3/1- LOST
Hall Green BAGS, 13.04, Whiteoak Will, 4(*)  4th 3/1
Walthamstow BAGS, 13.12, Layhams Lacey, 4 5th 8/1
Monmore BAGS, 14.37, Marlfield Hilton, 1(*) 6th 5/1
Monmore BAGS, 15.17, Knockaun Louise, 2 6th 7/1
Monmore BAGS, 15.58, Elderberry Becks, 5 6th 5/1
Monmore BAGS, 16.37, Cissies Dancer, 3 6th 7/2
Swindon BAGS, 17.27, Maid In Dolton, 2 4th 7/4
Monmore BAGS, 18.04, Tonna Lass, 3 4th 5/2
Sheffield BAGS, 18.38, Lazy Fanshaw, 6  2nd 5/2
Nottingham BAGS, 18.48, Alkit Flyeer, 3 3rd 5/2
Nottingham BAGS, 19.06, Le Accomplice, 6 4th 9/4
Sheffield BAGS, 19.11, Emma The First, 1 |Replaced
Sheffield BAGS, 19.26, Roman Princess, 4(*) 3rd 4/1
Nottingham BAGS, 19.37, Capla Blackjack, 6  1st 7/2- LOST
Nottingham BAGS, 20.07, Salacres Lass, 4 2nd 11/4
Sheffield BAGS, 20.13, Tinas Ban, 2 3rd 2/1
Nottingham BAGS, 20.37, Clonboy Storm, 2 2nd 5/2
Sheffield BAGS, 21.14, Liosgarbh Ginger, 1 4th 5/1
22 selections 2 lost (screen shot)

Here are today's.
Sheffield BAGS, 11.11, Dynamite John, 6
Swindon BAGS, 12.04, Radiant Lady, 4(*)
Sheffield BAGS, 12.12, Giancarnacambino, 6(*)
Swindon BAGS, 12.18, Day Seven, 4
Sheffield BAGS, 12.42, Desert Lisa, 5(*)
Swindon BAGS, 13.33, Talavara Jack, 1(*)
Swindon BAGS, 13.51, Thrice Engaged, 4
Sheffield BAGS, 14.03, Stormy Jacko, 6(*)
Monmore BAGS, 14.08, Clohur Blonde, 4
Monmore BAGS, 14.47, Mineola Key, 2
Walthamstow BAGS, 18.04, Appletown Drogba, 6
Nottingham BAGS, 18.28, Romeokee, 1
Nottingham BAGS, 18.48, Larkhill Ridge, 2(*)
Nottingham BAGS, 19.06, Wentworth Which, 1(*)
Romford BAGS, 19.11, Duchess Sally, 1
Romford BAGS, 19.42, Droopys Titmuss, 2
Nottingham BAGS, 20.07, Take Your Point, 1
Nottingham BAGS, 20.22, Benjey, 4
Romford BAGS, 20.43, Cheeky Courtney, 4
Nottingham BAGS, 20.51, Tonetta Kewell, 5(*)

Download the session.xml here (normally available by 10am mon-Fri)

Normal daily settings.
Stake 2.00
Stop Win: 2.00
Stop Loss: 16.00
running loss -20.00

I set the Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.

9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections started 13/11/2006

This is a win system (test) that me and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one really refining it. Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get these selections Saturday by signing up here:

Daily Double
5.05 Ayr: Profowens 4th 2/1 /Mister Apples 2nd 4/1
Points -10.57

Daily Back Nap: (stared 15/02/2007)
6.00 Here: Gabier 1st eve
Points -1.78

Double Take (started 22/03/2007) (£6.00 on the lay £4.00 on the back)
2.50 Ayr:
Back = Ange De Villez EP 1.98 UR eve - £4.00
Lay = Sparkling Taff 4.9 1st 4/1 - £23.40
Winnings to date = £6.45

Millionaire Double Selection.
2.50 Plum: Grouse Moor/Sett Aside

Millionaire Daily Nap
No Qualifier Today

Millionaire Double Take:

Millionaire Double Take: 40pts Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
No Qualifier Today

The idea is to to back the favourite and lay the second best priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that most of the time the lay should not change but if it does then it is always the best priced horse (lay side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be £10 split 4.00 on the back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do this how you want but we suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any loses on the back bet because we feel the lay will lose far less often.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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