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23rd May 2007

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I just realised we have another Bank Holiday this weekend. I think I will be working some of it, I have had to much time off lately.

I haven't shown you any tests on the Grey Horse bot lately. The reason for this is that we have just added some of the football markets to it (as I have already mentioned) and a couple of other features.

One of the new features is cancelling a race if there is a reduction in the number of runners.

The only way you can do this reliably using betfair is to monitor what is called the "reduction factor" (RD).

The way this works is that Betfair add a RD based on the horses chance of winning the race and how this would effect the other runners in the race.

You can get a general idea of the RD using the following formula.

1/price X 100
So a horse with a price of 4 would be:
1/4 = 0.25 X 100 25%

This is only a very rough guide. If you click on a horses name on betfair, the screen that opens will show you the exact RD.

A favourite trading at odds under 2.0 could have a RD of around 60% where an outsiders could be less than 1%.

So the way we have approached this is to allow the user to put in a % value that if exceeded will cancel any bets that haven't been placed on that race. This means if you don't want to bet on any race where there is a NR then you would probably set the "Reduction Factor" to 1 or 2%, but if you only want to cancel if a significant runner leaves the race then you would probably set it at 25%.

Non Runners are one of those things that can effect different bets in different ways. If you lay and a significant runner is withdrawn then that put's your risk up and although your monetary risk is adjusted by betfair this is not much good to you if the horse you were expecting to win has been withdrawn. For layers this is the same for Place bets. If you are betting on an 8 runner race and one is withdrawn, although there is a RD, the place payout is not adjusted.

On the other side of the coin that could suit backers just fine!

2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been receiving some win tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.

There are two selections Best and Next best. You can look at best only or follow both. Shaun suggest that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he chases any losses onto the next selection.

I am going to start with a £500 bank.
What you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case £25.00 and then divide it by the available odds and that's your stake.
So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £25 by 2 making a £12.50 stake.
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this new figure by the available odds.

Let's see what happens.
Yesterdays Bank = £696.06
Won =34.80 I am stoping if I win on the first bet
6:45 TOWCESTER ARCTIC SPIRIT (Next Best)  3rd 7/2
Todays Bank = £740.86

Here are todays.(Don't forget win bets)

3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 18.36

16.40 Lingfield, Mubaashir, EP 2.0  5th
19.45 Towcester, Golden Feather EP 2.0 3rd

15.50 Ayr, Ptarmigan Ridge EP 2.26
15.30 Kelso, Buckstruther, EP 2.1
16.10 Lingfield, Jeepstar EP 4.00
18.40 Huntingdon, Ground Breaker, EP 2.46
19.40 Huntingdon, Classic Gold, EP 4.4
19.50 Sedgefield, Mr Twins, EP 2.76
20.20 Sedgefield, High Frequency EP 4.1

4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday: (9th may)
Normal: 16:40, Lingfield, Escape Route 3rd 8/15
Pts 2007: - 5.44
Top Choice: 16:30, Southwell, Giant Slalom 25pts 2nd 8/13
Pts 2007: -4.84
Bank = 555.50

Normal:  16:40, Lingfield, Philatelist
Top Choice:  15:00, Kelso, Yes Sir 50pts

(we are trying an experiment with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the 03/05/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
'Use The Principles of 'My Mathematical Formula' on The Betting Exchanges and start profiting - NOW' ...... or use it as normal at your usual venue and win anyway! ..... either way with 'My Mathematical Formula' you can't lose

Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
 17.20 Bev, Gigs magic 4th 3/1

Today:  14.30 Kelso Alfonso

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip

4.40 Ling, Khyberie

Set a maximum amount as your liability, then divide that figure by the available odds.

EG. £100 / (8.8 - 1) = 12.82 so your stake is £12.82.


8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System started 07/11/2006.

After playing around with selections I have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are from the original and tighter system, I am not using these now.
Udate. I am now stopping at the first winner and changing my stop loss to £16.00 although I think this may be to high and we should also stop at the first loser and call it a day. Only time will tell.

Sunderland BAGS, 11.19, Mckays Quest, 2 Replaced 4th 7/2
Sunderland BAGS, 11.48, Son Of Juve, 3 2nd 3/1
Perry Barr BAGS, 12.12, Highfire Lass, 6 3rd 9/4
Perry Barr BAGS, 12.42, Rooster Beyonce, 1(*)  6th 6/1
Perry Barr BAGS, 13.27, Dalcash Max, 1 1st 6/4
Perry Barr BAGS, 14.03, Pineapple Charly, 3 6th 11/8
Nottingham BAGS, 14.57, Rich Blend, 2 4th 3/1
Nottingham BAGS, 15.17, Salems Scooby Do, 2(*) 4th 11/4
Crayford BAGS, 15.28, Raw Lucky, 5 2nd 4/1
Crayford BAGS, 16.08, Ballybrack Lemon, 5 2nd 7/2
Crayford BAGS, 16.27, Lacken Spirit, 5(*) 6th 7/2
Nottingham BAGS, 16.37, Beechwood Magpie, 5 1st 9/4
Nottingham BAGS, 16.57, Rooster Flyer, 3  2nd 6/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.07, Triggers Pint, 2 2nd 7/2
Nottingham BAGS, 17.48, Podges Pick, 4 2nd 3/1
Sheffield BAGS, 18.56, Comet, 1 6th 9/2
Sheffield BAGS, 19.42, Scholes Ozzy, 3(*) 1st 4/1
Sheffield BAGS, 20.13, Clachan A Choin, 5(*)  1st 1/1
Newcastle BAGS, 21.22, Corrakelly Rose, 3(*) 1st 6/1
Price Screen Shot

Here are today's.
12.04, Hall Green BAGS, Jenson Schwarz, 4, (*)
12.12, Newcastle BAGS, Copeland Duels, 2, (*)
12.42, Newcastle BAGS, Gojonnygogogogo, 6, 
13.33, Hall Green BAGS, Winetavern Boxer, 4, 
13.44, Newcastle BAGS, Stay Cool, 4, 
13.51, Hall Green BAGS, Supreme Madonna, 5, 
14.08, Hove BAGS, Miss Takle, 6, 
14.18, Oxford BAGS, Avid Storm, 3, 
14.57, Oxford BAGS, Bregogue Eire, 3,
15.07, Hove BAGS, Lettingzone Zoe, 3, 
15.38, Oxford BAGS, Peanut Smuggler, 1, (*)
17.27, Hove BAGS, Black Precious, 2, 
17.33, Oxford BAGS, Gee Up Doggy, 2, 
17.48, Oxford BAGS, Reenview Shaun, 5, 
17.58, Hove BAGS, Tragumna Rebel, 1, 
18.04, Oxford BAGS, Ballysimon Rose, 5, 
18.38, Sunderland BAGS, Quarterland Lass, 6, 
19.11, Sunderland BAGS, Tornaroy Talon, 2, (*)
19.58, Sunderland BAGS, Hillcross Legend, 6, 
20.13, Sunderland BAGS, Elwick Who, 2, 
20.22, Swindon BAGS, Bauravilla Shep, 6, 
21.07, Swindon BAGS, Bunnow Swallow, 1, 
21.22, Swindon BAGS, Radiant Lady, 4,  

Download the session.xml here (normally available by 10am mon-Fri)

Normal daily settings.
Stake 2.00
Stop Win: 2.00
Stop Loss: 16.00

I set the Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.

9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections started 13/11/2006

This is a win system (test) that me and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one really refining it. Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get these selections Saturday by signing up here:

Yesterday's Results can now been seen at:


Millionaire Double Selection.
7.20 Sedg: Cannon Fire/Highglen

Millionaire Daily Nap
3.00 Kelso: Yes Sir

Millionaire Double Take: 40pts Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
No Qualifier Today
The idea is to to back the favourite and lay the second best priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that most of the time the lay should not change but if it does then it is always the best priced horse (lay side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be £10 split 4.00 on the back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do this how you want but we suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any loses on the back bet because we feel the lay will lose far less often.

Backing & Laying (new 21/05/2001)
8.50 Sedg: Dead Mans Dante/Monashee Grey(Shanehill)

Staking same as above.
3.40 Muss: Baylaw Star 2nd 6/1 /Snow Bunting 5th 7/1 (Esoterica)

Full details are given at

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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