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Series on creating a place system.Day 1
I started playing around with some ideas for a place system on Friday after a request from one of the readers of this email, who wanted a system to go along with My Mathematical Formula.
Now although I have played around with a couple of ideas before I thought I would openly try to create one in this news letter.
This is what we have so far.
8 - 12 Runners Hurdle or Chase (8 is the minimum for top 3 place).
Must have come 1, 2 last time out (may stretch this to include 3rd).
Must be top RPR rated at the racing post.
This is just the beginning but we only want a placed horse and to be quite truefull with you I don't mind if it does not give a bet every day.
We could also do with placed odds at betfair of at least 2 Todays choice would be,
2.20 Leicester, Bobosh but is trading at 1.76
If we included 3rd Last time out as well we would also have
12.40 Folkstone, Biscar Two trading at 1.57
1.10 Folkstone, Jazz Du Forez trading at 2.62.
Lets just watch to see how they get on.
If you have any of your own ideas to add then please let me know.
The new system we started playing around with yesterday, didn't to good although we did have 1 placed and that was Jazz Du Forez who came in 2nd.
There wasn't a lot to learn from that one race except maybe we stick to races with 8 runners which is the minimum we can have for a 3 horse place.
These are the races that meet the system today.
1.40 Towcester, 9/4 Follow The Flow, 1.61
2.10 Towcester, 10/1 Star Time, 2.3
3.00 N.A, Colourful Life, 1.3
Star time has been totally over looked in the Racingpost, but judging by it's place price people are still concerned about it.
The prices on the other 2 are not exactly what we are looking for, but for the time being let's just see what happens.
One other thing we could look at that I personally do not use a lot now days is to see the amont of tipsters who are tipping the horse.
Follow The Flow 5, Note neither SP or Postdata tipped the horse.
Star Time 2, Note only Postdata tipped the horse.
Colourful Life 13, note also that SP and Postdata tipped the horse.
At this time it is probably worth taking notes on the other top runners in the race so we can see how they do also.
Maybeseven, RPR 109/115, 1st LTO
Autumn Mist, RPR 109/115, 7th LTO
Hanover Square, RPR 100/107, U LTO
Kitski, RPR 102/107, 3 LTO
Major Blue, RPR 103/107, 2 LTO
Jaloux DīEstruval, RPR 134/138, 6 LTO
Lucky Leader,RPR 135/138, 4 LTO
The new place system we started playing around with gave us 2 winners and 1 place (2) which was the one that interested me the most.
If you remember Star Time was a 10/1 outsider and the race was actually won by Kitski who was second in the betting.
For the moment lets concentrate on Star Time and see if we can match that success.
Although the horse was top rated it was ignored by just about all the tipsters (see why I don't trust the selection box), so we need to look for another horse like it, just to see if we get a similiar result.
This maybe the one thing in the system that causes it only to pick a horse every so often.
There is one worth having a look at although it doesn't exactly stick to the system but for our purposes it may give us some information to work with.
3.55 Kempton, Bison King, trading around 2 on the exchanges.
Bison king has a top RPR along with Lord Nellsson and Safe Enough but the former is the favourite trading at 1.9 and the latter has not done well at all lately!
To help in our decision I am going to pop over to:
http://www.adrianmassey.com and check the speed rating.
Although I am not a great lover of these ratings they do help when your trying to get an overal picture of a horses chance.
Bison King is second in the rating so it at least gives our decision some confidence, all we can do now is wait and see what happens.
If you are new to this daily email you can follow the series by looking here.
The new place system we started playing around with gave us another win yesterday when Bison King came in 3rd, he did end up favourite and although I missed the place price I expect it dropped below 2.
It appears we are on the right track though but we certainly need a lot more testing.
Again today I could't find anything that exactly matches our system (this is a 10 horse race instead of 8) but why we are testing there is no harm in trying out different races, in fact the more the better.
13.40 Market Rasen, Ryders Storm, I did notice it has just dropped below the 2 on betfair, makes you wonder if we are really on to something hear!
Although joint 3rd in the betting forecast at the Racingpost Ryders Storm is tipped by the most tipsters, so this is bound to effect it's price.
It is also top of the RPR table although there are a lot of unknowns in the race.
The http://www.adrianmassey.com speed ratings place is 5th.
I am not totally convinced by this selection and I have a feeling the place price will drop even more.
Another win for our new place system when Ryders Storm came in 2nd yesterday, again I missed the place price!
Well so far the system seems to be working well although we still haven't settled on any rules.
So I will try again.
8 - 10 runners (I think 10 is more likely to give us the price we need.)
Must have been 1,2,3 LTO we could probably stretch this 4th.
Must be top RPR in the racing post (Strict Rule)
Must be in the top half of the Adrian Massey speed table (still not sure how vital this is)
Today I want to try out the Adrian Massey rule. The http://www.adrianmassey.com 15.35 Exeter, BackBeat, Betfair 2.32 This horse fits all the system except it is bottom of the speed table.
Lets see what happens.
Another win for our new place system when BackBeat came in 1st on Friday, again I missed the place price!
Both times we have picked horses that have been bottom of the Adrian Massey's speed rating they have still placed or won, so I think we will drop the speed ratings for this system.
Ludlow is the only Hurdle/Chase meeting today so there is not a great deal to chose from but I did find:
2.50 Ludlow, Dere Lyn, Betfair 2.14
Dere Lyn is actually joint top in the RPR table but did come second last time out.
Last weeks results were very encouraging and if they carry on we can start to consider how we can use this system with 'My Mathematical Formula' which was the reason for producing it.
Not so good for our new place system when Dere Lyn only managed 4th.
It could have just been one of those races but he was in a little trouble over the 4th.
Todays choice is mainly because we can still get over 2.0 at Betfair.
3.00 Sedgefield, Iron Express, has had a couple of 4 places but lets just see, because I still want to test out if we can stretch to 4th LTO.
Not so good for our new place system again when Iron Express only managed 4th.
So maybe we should stick to the 1,2 or 3 LTO rule.
I have found one that meets the selection criteria spot on: 14.00 Wetherby, Bobīs Buster, just about 2. at betfair.
Bobīs Buster was 3rd LTO, has plenty of win and place history, is clear top of the RPR rating so he should be a good choice.
A bit of a disaster yesterday with Bobīs Buster coming in 6th, that's our worst result to date and to be quite honest one I wasn't expecting!
I would really like to get this system to give us at least 5 winners in a row, so I think it may be time to add some more filters.
A relatively new favourite of mine is to look at the jockey and trainer stats over the last five years to see if they are successful at the track.
If the Jockey and Trainer has over 15% then they are doing well and should be considered, the only problem with this filter is there will be no doubt that it will cut down on the amount of selections we will get.
I can not find one a horse that meets the system today, the only one close is 12.50 Uttoxeter, Kingston Town, but he fell LTO so it would be a risk.
Interestingly though the trainer is Mr Pipe who has a 23% success rate at this track but the jockey lets us down with only 4%.
Worth seeing what happens because there is no doubt this horse is capable of better.
Not sure what to make of that win yesterday, I certainly think we need to bring in the Jockey and Trainer track percentages, exactly at what level it's a bit to early to tell!
I have found one race to test the theory on, infact this is the only race that I can find!
14.30 MUssleburgh, Transit.
This is a good one to try because it was 8th LTO but the Jockey percentage is 16% and the Trainer percentage is 20% so these are quite high.
I note in betfair that this horse is now favourite and the place price is 1.7, but we are still testing so all this doesn't matter.
Transit came in 4th on friday so just outside the place but I think it has given us a bit more information, if you remember although the Jockey and Trainer scored high the horse finished 8th last time out.
Now that we have decided to use the jockey and trainer stats I think we should test this against the top RPR.
To do that today we have to stretch the number of runners in the race but as I have said before it's all about testing.
12.20 Newcastle, One Five Eight trading at 2.18 (place). Trainer 16%, Jockey 28% the jockey has won on this horse before.
One Five Eight is not top of the RPR table but is 3rd and this may be acceptable, only time will tell.
Just for the record I also checked out the speed rating at http://www.adrianmassey.com and this horse is top.
Let's see what happens.
Disaster with One Five Eight coming in 6th place but I think it shows that we now have to settle down and just wait until we get bets that actually fit the system.
So here it is.
1) Any chase/Hurdle.
2) 8 - 10 runners (I think 10 is more likely to give us the price we need.)
3) Must have been 1,2,3 LTO.
4) Must be top RPR in the racing post.
5) Jockey must have a success rate of over 15%
6) Trainer must have a success rate of over 15%
v I know that this isn't going to throw up a great deal of selections but when it does we should have a good chance of a place.
What I will do now is give the system it's own little section in this daily mail and tell you when we get a tip.
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