I had quite a busy weekend
in the end and did a lot of walking! It's hard to work when the weather is as
good as it has been the last few days.
I had another reply to Psycho's
article on Thursday,
have read Psychos article and Jon Dees response. I think there is a
simpler response to Psycho, and that is that he has only considered filters
biased towards the odds at one end of the market or the other. If the punter
noticed that his losses were skewed towards something not connected with the
odds, such as a particular course, going, weather conditions etc. etc., then
applying a filter appropriate to this should not affect the average odds at
all. I think Psycho has chosen probably the only filter which supports his
argument that they make no difference.
On the other hand I believe that
Jons argument is nearly right, except that we may be looking at a
situation which has nothing to do with chance, for example course, going or
weather conditions. From what I have read, the proportion of favourites winning
races varies quite a lot between courses, going conditions, types of race and
horses age. Therefore it seems to me that filters based on these
parameters are entirely valid. For example, I think it is generally accepted
that in poor weather conditions (cold or rain), or soft or heavy going,
favourites are less likely to win because these conditions have an effect of
reducing the differences between the good horses and the rest. In other words,
the results are slightly more random than in normal conditions.
Psycho, Jon and Ian.
Did you have anything to add?
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December and January.
can get Adrian's daily selections by signing up here now.
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Guest: Gary's Greyhound
lays not over 8.00
Theres only one full selection today which
Hall Green - 12.32 - Trap 3 6th (Mal - I
didn't get a match)
Walthamstow - 11.42 - Trap 6th (Mal - I didn't get a
Swindon - 11.48 - Trap 1 (only take if there is a clear
As always i suggest you don't lay over 8.
of the day
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Lay Bet a
2:40 Plumpton Tip1: Burren legend
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Sorry no nap
Today: Sorry no nap again today
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Place System: Started
This is a
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 51.62
system (30/07/07) + 13.69
Sparky Vixen, EP 2.88 (*) 3rd
14:25, Southwell, Note Perfect, EP 2.08 1st
14:50, Bangor-On-Dee, Bringewood Fox, EP 3.25 4th
Hayley´s Pearl, EP 2.68 5th
14:00 Wetherby, Wood Fern
16:05 Wolverhampton, ncess Cocoa, EP 2.06
16:25 Plumpton, Back
Among Friends EP 2.08
17:05 Wolverhampton, Calistos Quest, EP 2.34
(*) No bet under new system idea
Lay test system
(or maybe back)
Started (again) 15/01/2008. We are testing to see if we
have a good lay system or back. £10 stakes. Please remember this is a
test and a bit of fun to find out if this selection system works better as a
lay or back system.
Lay + £10.80 (after 5%
Back -£18.57(after 5% commision)
14:35, Kemp, The Polomoche EP 2.16 11th 10/11
selection today, prices were to high.
Remember this is just a test
and we are paper testing laying these selections.
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Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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