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11th February 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I had quite a busy weekend in the end and did a lot of walking! It's hard to work when the weather is as good as it has been the last few days.

I had another reply to Psycho's article on Thursday,

I have read Psycho’s article and Jon Dee’s response. I think there is a simpler response to Psycho, and that is that he has only considered filters biased towards the odds at one end of the market or the other. If the punter noticed that his losses were skewed towards something not connected with the odds, such as a particular course, going, weather conditions etc. etc., then applying a filter appropriate to this should not affect the average odds at all. I think Psycho has chosen probably the only filter which supports his argument that they make no difference.

On the other hand I believe that Jon’s argument is nearly right, except that we may be looking at a situation which has nothing to do with chance, for example course, going or weather conditions. From what I have read, the proportion of favourites winning races varies quite a lot between courses, going conditions, types of race and horse’s age. Therefore it seems to me that filters based on these parameters are entirely valid. For example, I think it is generally accepted that in poor weather conditions (cold or rain), or soft or heavy going, favourites are less likely to win because these conditions have an effect of reducing the differences between the good horses and the rest. In other words, the results are slightly more random than in “normal” conditions.


Thanks Psycho, Jon and Ian.

Did you have anything to add?

Guest Selection

Guest: Adrian's Expected Winners
Results December and January.

You can get Adrian's daily selections by signing up here now.

Daily selections are here if you can not get them by email.

Just keep an eye on them and see what you think.

Guest: Gary's Greyhound lays not over 8.00
Theres only one full selection today which is:

Hall Green - 12.32 - Trap 3 6th (Mal - I didn't get a match)
Walthamstow - 11.42 - Trap 6th (Mal - I didn't get a match)

Swindon - 11.48 - Trap 1 (only take if there is a clear fav)

As always i suggest you don't lay over 8.

Sponsors of the day
Sponsor product of the day (please take a look you never Know!)

The Pro Lay System An easy to follow quick to learn system that can make you money and comes with resale rights. .
Click Here to read more

Sponsor Tip of the day.

Lay Bet a Day

2:40 Plumpton Tip1: Burren legend

Lay Bet a Day

Malcolm's Selections
Best Lay of the Day
Yesterday: (Friday)
Sorry no nap

Today: Sorry no nap again today

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

The Lay Betting SystemAdvantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Place System: Started 20-11-2006

This is a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3 Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 51.62
Points new system (30/07/07) + 13.69

Yesterday: (Friday)
13:20, Southwell, Sparky Vixen, EP 2.88 (*) 3rd
14:25, Southwell, Note Perfect, EP 2.08 1st
14:50, Bangor-On-Dee, Bringewood Fox, EP 3.25 4th
21:20, Wolverhampton, Hayley´s Pearl, EP 2.68 5th

14:00 Wetherby, Wood Fern EP 2.30
16:05 Wolverhampton, ncess Cocoa, EP 2.06
16:25 Plumpton, Back Among Friends EP 2.08
17:05 Wolverhampton, Calistos Quest, EP 2.34

(*) No bet under new system idea


Lay test system (or maybe back)
Started (again) 15/01/2008. We are testing to see if we have a good lay system or back. £10 stakes. Please remember this is a test and a bit of fun to find out if this selection system works better as a lay or back system.

Lay + £10.80 (after 5% commision)
Back -£18.57(after 5% commision)

Yesterday. (Friday)
14:35, Kemp, The Polomoche EP 2.16 11th 10/11

Today. No selection today, prices were to high.

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing laying these selections.

Other Information
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
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Grey Horse Bot affiliate programme

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Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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