19th August 2008
We are back into a loss situation with Lay/Back selections.
added another excel sheet this morning to the results to show you what would
have happened if you backed the lay selections and as you will see, that even
though we have mostly won there would still be a large loss overall.
started also adding all the selections together to see what happens if you lay
or back them all, but I haven't had time this morning to change all the "Lost"
It's always worth looking at selections at as many angles as
you can, you never know what you will find unless you at least have a
I must admit I have never liked backing runners "odds on" (Under
evens) although I do know people who use the place market on betfair to find a
constant supply of low priced winners, but these are normally "form" readers
who have a system designed especially for certain races.
I think we have
played about before with 8 runner races where you get paid to 3 places. It
could be worth looking at this again to see if we could find a constant supply
This is probably a job for
GHB so I may play
around with some ideas to see how many winners we get if we bet on 8 runners
(or less because betfair still pay our for non runners on the place market) and
what sort of prices we can pick up before the off.
Lay/Back System Test
There are two types of
selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and
the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.
There is one thing to think
about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back
it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could
then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are
not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what
If you want you can download the
selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips
option. The URL is here.
The session file is set as lay,
odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 1.00 stake, and back odds 2.00 to 5.00, 1.00
stake but you should use your own option settings.
I will also upload a spreadsheet
once a week with the latest results here.
Lay (Only if under
2:45, Wolverhampton, Crystal Moments, EP 1.98 1st
7:30, Windsor, French Art, EP 1.74 1st 4/11
Back (Only if over 2.00)
5:30, Windsor, Aleatricis, EP 2.74 2nd 5/4
6:10, Newton Abbot,
Histoire De Moeurs, EP 3.25
7:40, Newton Abbot, Outside Investor, EP 2.00
(This could drop below 2.00 and be a lay before the off!)
Guest Selection ("Good to
Here is a new lay system I thought you may like to look at
for a while.
The author has been sending them to me for a while and they
look quite promissing.
I think they could do with a cap on the maximum price
but that would probably have to be a personal thing.
Ling: Storm Sir EP 10.5 1st 13/2
No Selection today
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Sponsor Tip of the day.
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay
a day from my Lay betting System")
Yarm, Kimono My House 6th 15/8
Today: 15.45 Brig,
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in
1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.
purchase the system formula:
Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show
readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a
selection does daily.
You can also have this tip delivered as content
to your own website.
to find out more.
Back test system ( "A 'back'
system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available
as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
As a new idea I am going to
start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the
Please Note: This is a trial.
Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what
you are getting yourself into.
New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £0.00
We will use 5% of our
current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use the
CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at betfair
is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a runner
is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking plan and
stake the whole 5% stake.
16:00, Ling, War Native EP 1.99
Today. 15:25, York, New Approach
Remember this is just a test and we are paper
testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information (" Here
is some other info that should help you")
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
If you need help about anything please go to my
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
You can automate your betting with
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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