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19th August 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

We are back into a loss situation with Lay/Back selections.

I added another excel sheet this morning to the results to show you what would have happened if you backed the lay selections and as you will see, that even though we have mostly won there would still be a large loss overall.

I started also adding all the selections together to see what happens if you lay or back them all, but I haven't had time this morning to change all the "Lost" to "Wins"!

It's always worth looking at selections at as many angles as you can, you never know what you will find unless you at least have a look.

I must admit I have never liked backing runners "odds on" (Under evens) although I do know people who use the place market on betfair to find a constant supply of low priced winners, but these are normally "form" readers who have a system designed especially for certain races.

I think we have played about before with 8 runner races where you get paid to 3 places. It could be worth looking at this again to see if we could find a constant supply of winners.

This is probably a job for GHB so I may play around with some ideas to see how many winners we get if we bet on 8 runners (or less because betfair still pay our for non runners on the place market) and what sort of prices we can pick up before the off.

Lay/Back System Test ("Started 23/07/2008")

There are two types of selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.

There is one thing to think about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what happens.

If you want you can download the selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips option. The URL is here.

The session file is set as lay, odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 1.00 stake, and back odds 2.00 to 5.00, 1.00 stake but you should use your own option settings.

I will also upload a spreadsheet once a week with the latest results here.

Lay (Only if under 2.00)
2:45, Wolverhampton, Crystal Moments, EP 1.98 1st 4/5
7:30, Windsor, French Art, EP 1.74 1st 4/11

No Selection

Back (Only if over 2.00)
5:30, Windsor, Aleatricis, EP 2.74 2nd 5/4

6:10, Newton Abbot, Histoire De Moeurs, EP 3.25
7:40, Newton Abbot, Outside Investor, EP 2.00 (This could drop below 2.00 and be a lay before the off!)

Guest Selection ("Good to Lay")

Here is a new lay system I thought you may like to look at for a while.
The author has been sending them to me for a while and they look quite promissing.
I think they could do with a cap on the maximum price but that would probably have to be a personal thing.

2.30 Ling: Storm Sir EP 10.5 1st 13/2

No Selection today

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

Sponsor product of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
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Sponsor Tip of the day.

7.40 N.A., Baileys Best

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

18.50 Yarm, Kimono My House 6th 15/8

Today: 15.45 Brig, Gracechurch

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.

As a new idea I am going to start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the CashMaster idea.

Please Note: This is a trial. Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what you are getting yourself into.

New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £0.00
We will use 5% of our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking plan and stake the whole 5% stake.

16:00, Ling, War Native EP 1.99 1st 2/5

Today. 15:25, York, New Approach EP 2.68

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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