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19th November 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

How many losers are you ready for?

I had an email yesterday from someone who had been watching my Lay Betting System tip and then decided to start using them, unfortunately we had two losers in a row, which although it doesn't happen very often with this system, it does happen.

Now of course I feel sorry for anyone who loses money especially when they first start trying selections but this is inevitable and although his email was only state how weird it was that the selection only started losing when he bet on it, the fact is it does lose and can sometimes lose 2 in a row.

So going back to my original question was the reader ready for this or was he just hoping that he would be lucky and carry on a good winning streak?

I was reading an article about forex trading and in the writer said there is a difference between "observations" or "interpretations" and that many traders suffer because instead of making observations about facts, they instead interpret what they think is happening.

I think the same is true of sports betting, in stead of observing the truth we prefer to interpret the information, which leads us to make assumptions which in turn will cause us to make decisions which will probably, cause us to lose more than we should.

Let's take a simple example.

The horse has won at 7f is an observation of truth
The same horse is now running at 6f so has a good chance of winning is an Interpretation.

A step up in class should help the horse win is an Interpretation.
The horse has one with this Jockey is a fact.

This system has had 2 losers in a row is a fact.

This system will probably only ever lose 2 in a row is an Interpretation.

Although I am the first to admit that sometimes you have to interpret the information you have to make a decision, there is still no reason that you should have as many facts as you can and if you are interpreting much more than you should then you better make sure you use a lot of caution and are ready for the fact you have got it wrong.

You only have to look at many of the "tipsters" and their Interpretation to see what I mean!

So when you make decisions on what to bet on please make sure you are observing facts and not making to many interpretations!

I was reading another ebook yesterday called Bookie Buster which although the sales page makes it look like some fantastic system, it is in fact a book full of staking plans, 21 of them to be precise.

Now I am sure some of these staking plans have done the rounds and you will find some in but I still found some very interesting and I wondered if I could give you some examples of what I mean over the next few days.

I am going to use Lay Back Racing and Expected-Winners as guinea pigs because both have interesting strike rates. Bookie-busters plans are all for "back" bets but I want to twist a couple for "lays" as well.

On both of these sites we have quite a bit of data and so can make observations that will allow us to look at ways we can use the selections to make money.

Anyway we will start tomorrow.

Don't forget about my Xmas special...

If you purchase the over the next couple of weeks I will also send you under separate cover. (Which I am removing from sale any day). (Which I haven't put back on sale since purchasing it from the author).

So you get all the above for just £39.99.

I think that's a very good offer when you consider what they all cost separately. This is a special offer to readers of this email and we will send the download instructions for the bonus systems after we have received your payment information.
And please no refunds!

Guest Selection ("Good to Lay" ) started 27/08/2008

This selection is now only available as part of The Almost Certain Nap service.

Guest Selection ("Double your chance" ) started 7/11/2008

The idea behind this selection is that you back one runner and lay the other. The lay as a much higher strike rate than the back, so we put enough on the lay to make profit even if the back loses. A split of 20/30 seems to work well. So if you bet £5 you put 2.00 on the back and 3.00 on the lay.

Rule: If the favourite is a NR (non runner) you can still bet on the lay (I still think there is a risk here) but if the lay is a NR then no bet.

2.10 Folk:
Back: Spring Dream EP 2.1 1st 4/5
Lay: Seraphim EP 15.5 8th 16/1

3.30 Ling:
Back: Plush EP 2.16
Lay: One Oi EP 32

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

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Sponsor Tip of the day.

Time: 14:10 Race: Hexham
Tip: Twelve Paces
Points Value: 1

Time: 15:00 Race: Lingfield
Tip: Neuchatel
Points Value: 1
Comment for this tip: Only if first wins

Time: 15:30 Race: Lingfield
Tip: Plush
Points Value: 1
Comment for this tip: Only if first two win

Time: 21:20 Race: Kempton
Tip: Silaah
Points Value: 1
Comment for this tip: Only if first three win

Time: 12:50 Race: Warwick
Tip: Enfant De Lune
Comment for this tip: Early BF 3.1

Time: 15:40 Race: Hexham
Tip: Mamba
Comment for this tip: Early BF 3.2

Time: 18:50 Race: Kempton
Tip: Yab Adee
Comment for this tip: Early BF 2.86

Time: 19:20 Race: Kempton
Tip: Dialect
Comment for this tip: Early BF 3

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

13.00 Fake, Little Shilling 1st 11/8

Today: Sorry no nap today.

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.

14:10, Folk, Spring Dream EP 2.24 1st 4/5

Today. 15:10, Hexm, Fabalu EP 1.59

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...
Also check my blog here
We make every effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information provided.

This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.

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