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28th July 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I was hoping to start giving you an GHB xml file for the new Back/Lay selections that I started to show you over the weekend, but there is only one selection today and so I don't see the point.

Thursday win on the lay took us into profit and remember that was after having 4 losing lays on the first day, and we have only now had 3 winning lay's.

Don't forget that from today the selections will be appearing under the "Lay/Back test" section below.

We often talk about finding "value" when betting and Darren (betting School) put his own slant on this in the Pro Betting System manual.

So what is finding value?

A runner who's odds do not reflect it's real chance of winning (or losing) is said to have value, but it's of course not easy to find such runners and of course you have to work out away of knowing if there is value in the price.

The problem with value is that is based on your (or someone else's) opinion of the chances that runner has of winning.

Most people agree that Betfair's prices reflect accurately the chance a runner has of winning. Unlike bookies prices that also have profit built in and some ridiculously low outsider odds.

But that doesn't mean you can not find value it just means you have to work out your own way of finding it.

Over the next couple of weeks we will have a look at what you should be looking at when trying to find away to determine if a runner represents value or not and to do this we need to look at the form of a runner and decide if everyone else has got it wrong!

To do this we need to come up with away of rating horses so we will look at the available information about a runner based on fact's, rather than speculation, so we will not take into consideration the "tipsters" table because this is speculation, it maybe based on informative information but we need to look for the runners the "tipsters" have ovelooked. Don't forget tipsters (paper ones anyway) have to have an opinion on nearly every race and runner where as we can pick and choose where we look.

This should give us and advantage.

Lay/Back System Test ("Started 23/07/2008")

There are two types of selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.

There is one thing to think about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what happens.

Lay (Only if under 2.00)
Yesterday's. (Thursday)
3:30, Bath, Lucky Leigh EP 1.36 2nd 2/5

14.45 Southwell, Night Of Fortune EP 1.52

Back (Only if over 2.00)
Yesterday's. (Thursday)
4:40, Bath, Pennyspider,EP 3.65 4th 10/3

No Back today

Guest Selection ("An Idea I want to try")

This is a new lay test started 22/07/2008
No bet if a significant NR (10% or over reduction factor).

16.30 Sand Australia Day EP 24 (may drop) 1st 12/1 (ouch, there were a couple of NR's but I am not sure if they were significant.)

14.45 Southwell, Shampagne EP 7.2

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

Sponsor product of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
What if you had a system where you could win on every race selected? And it gave you a way of betting so that you could not lose on those races?
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Sponsor Tip of the day.
Comments for today: Varadouro and SWINBROOK look to have the best chances at the weights and preference to win is for the former who was second to a progressive sort over C&D on his penultimate start and drops to claiming level for the first time.

Nap (Lay) Selection 1: Southwell 15:15 SWINBROOK 1Pts

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

Yesterday. (Thursday)
19.25 Donc, Novellen Lad 4th 6/4

Today: 18.40 Wind, Indy Driver

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.

As a new idea I am going to start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the CashMaster idea.

Please Note: This is a trial. Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what you are getting yourself into.

New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £353.22
We will use 5% of our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking plan and stake the whole 5% stake.

Yesterday. (Loss amount so far 146.78)
16:30, Sand, Presvis EP 2.42 (Stake 70.98) 2nd 11/8

19:40, Wind, Orange Pip EP 2.96 (Stake 87.64)

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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