Tomorrow morning I am off to a
meeting with Betfair at their London offices so I will have to leave here
early. I should be able to get the selection out to you ok, but there will be
no rambles from me.
This week we have been talking
about a way to find a value bet and to come up with our own way of creating a
Once you have decided upon the
form pointers you are going to use, you then also need to decide how important
each peice of information is going to be.
You could decide that if the
runner has won at the same distance then this is very important and so you
should give it a score of say 3. Won at the same class may not be so important
but certainly worth taking a note of, so you could give this a score of 1.
By creating a score table you
then have a method of rating your selections and you can now rate every horse
in your chosen race, to see if you agree with whats happening on the live
Because there are so many races
a day, it is pointless as I have said before, to look at every one of them and
it could also be time consuming to do so. If you can find specific races where
normally the favourite doesn't win as often as the odds suggest, then you have
a good start point.
As an example I just popped over
to Adrian Masseys site
and had a look at the AW stats for the last 18 yeas and straight away I noticed
that on average favourites win 32% of the time, but looking down the tables in
selling Handicaps it is only 22% of the time, which is 10% of the norm. Now I
know there is not many of these races and they may be a difficult choice to
find a winner in, but I think it makes my point. Looking further down the chart
races with 12 or more runners in a race also produce below average favourites
winning, so that could be another filter.
It is all about research.
As I mentioned at the start of
this article a few days ago, I have taken some of this information from
School) section from the Pro Betting System.
Darren actually goes into far
more detail in the book and shows you how to work out if you have found a real
Lay/Back System Test
There are two types of
selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and
the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.
There is one thing to think
about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back
it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could
then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are
not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what
If you want you can download the
selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips
option. The URL is here.
The session file is set as lay,
odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 2.00 stake, but you should use your own option
I will also upload a spreadsheet
once a week with the latest results here.
Lay (Only if under
3:30, Goodwood, Henrythenavigator EP 1.43 1st 4/11
Winter Star, EP 1.48
Back (Only if over 2.00)
3:45, Perth, Premier Dane, EP 2.26 1st 10/11 I got a price
on this of 1.99 before the start so in the spreadsheet it will go to a loss on
the lay side, if you bet at a higher price then you would have had a win!
Hartshead, EP 3.6
Guest Selection ("An Idea I
want to try")
New guest selection here soon.
Sponsors of the day
("Products and Tips for you to look at.")
of the day (please take a look you never
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what
you are looking for...
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Sponsor Tip of the
Selection 1: 2.35 Strat, Lets Cast Again
Selection 2: 6.25 Sand, Miss
Selection 3: 7.45 Muss, Nok Twice
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay
a day from my Lay betting System")
Leic, Stargazer Jim 7th 9/4
Today: 19.30 Sand, Cave Lion
Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one
of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system
Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show
readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a
selection does daily.
You can also have this tip delivered as content
to your own website.
to find out more.
Back test system ( "A 'back'
system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available
as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
As a new idea I am going to
start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the
Please Note: This is a trial.
Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what
you are getting yourself into.
New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £232.70
We will use 5% of
our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use
the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at
betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a
runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking
plan and stake the whole 5% stake.
Yesterday. (Loss amount so far
16:05, Gdwd, Colony EP 5.4 (Stake 49.50) 11th 7/2
15:30, Gdwd, Yeats,
EP 1.68 (standard £25 stake as the price is below 2.0)
this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
If you need help about anything please go to my
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
You can automate your betting with
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
Have a good days
P.S. How about something different...
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