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31st July 2008

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

Tomorrow morning I am off to a meeting with Betfair at their London offices so I will have to leave here early. I should be able to get the selection out to you ok, but there will be no rambles from me.

This week we have been talking about a way to find a value bet and to come up with our own way of creating a rating system.

Once you have decided upon the form pointers you are going to use, you then also need to decide how important each peice of information is going to be.

You could decide that if the runner has won at the same distance then this is very important and so you should give it a score of say 3. Won at the same class may not be so important but certainly worth taking a note of, so you could give this a score of 1.

By creating a score table you then have a method of rating your selections and you can now rate every horse in your chosen race, to see if you agree with whats happening on the live market.

Because there are so many races a day, it is pointless as I have said before, to look at every one of them and it could also be time consuming to do so. If you can find specific races where normally the favourite doesn't win as often as the odds suggest, then you have a good start point.

As an example I just popped over to Adrian Masseys site and had a look at the AW stats for the last 18 yeas and straight away I noticed that on average favourites win 32% of the time, but looking down the tables in selling Handicaps it is only 22% of the time, which is 10% of the norm. Now I know there is not many of these races and they may be a difficult choice to find a winner in, but I think it makes my point. Looking further down the chart races with 12 or more runners in a race also produce below average favourites winning, so that could be another filter.

It is all about research.

As I mentioned at the start of this article a few days ago, I have taken some of this information from Darren's (betting School) section from the Pro Betting System.

Darren actually goes into far more detail in the book and shows you how to work out if you have found a real value bet.

Lay/Back System Test ("Started 23/07/2008")

There are two types of selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.

There is one thing to think about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what happens.

If you want you can download the selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips option. The URL is here.

The session file is set as lay, odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 2.00 stake, but you should use your own option settings.

I will also upload a spreadsheet once a week with the latest results here.

Lay (Only if under 2.00)
3:30, Goodwood, Henrythenavigator EP 1.43 1st 4/11

5:25, Stratford, Winter Star, EP 1.48

Back (Only if over 2.00)
3:45, Perth, Premier Dane, EP 2.26 1st 10/11 I got a price on this of 1.99 before the start so in the spreadsheet it will go to a loss on the lay side, if you bet at a higher price then you would have had a win!

5:05, Nottingham, Hartshead, EP 3.6

Guest Selection ("An Idea I want to try")

New guest selection here soon.

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

Sponsor product of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what you are looking for...
Click Here to read more

Sponsor Tip of the day.

Selection 1: 2.35 Strat, Lets Cast Again
Selection 2: 6.25 Sand, Miss Pheobe
Selection 3: 7.45 Muss, Nok Twice

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

19.15 Leic, Stargazer Jim 7th 9/4

Today: 19.30 Sand, Cave Lion

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.

As a new idea I am going to start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the CashMaster idea.

Please Note: This is a trial. Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what you are getting yourself into.

New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £232.70
We will use 5% of our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking plan and stake the whole 5% stake.

Yesterday. (Loss amount so far 267.30)
16:05, Gdwd, Colony EP 5.4 (Stake 49.50) 11th 7/2

15:30, Gdwd, Yeats, EP 1.68 (standard £25 stake as the price is below 2.0)

Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

Other Information (" Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Have a good days racing.


P.S. How about something different...

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