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12th October 2010
Todays ramblings

Hi there.

I don’t like to talk about using recovery staking very much now days for two reasons. Firstly of course it is dangerous and if you are not careful you can lose a lot of money quickly and secondly the Gambling Commission are not too happy about people recommending them.

So although I am going to talk about a real live example here I want you to be very clear that it is purely to discuss the concept and I am in no way suggestion that you consider using this type of strategy, in any way or form. Please be very clear about that as you read on.

Also if you ever going to use a staking plan you must be sure to have a “set in stone” maximum loss you are going to accept, this is important so make sure you think seriously about it.

The most famous type of staking system is the Martingale which was designed in 18th century France based around gambling for a toss of a coin. The system states that you basically keep doubling your bet after every loss, until you win. It was based on the head or tails game and that you had a 50/50 chance of winning, so if you had infinitive wealth then sooner or later you would win all your money back…wouldn’t you?

Another twist I heard on this was some very good golfers would dupe amateurs into playing golf with an agreed stake that would double after the loss of each hole, and here is how it works over 18 holes of golf.

Agreed stake £1

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, 16384, 32768, 65536, 131072!

So total loss starting with a £1 first bet is £262,143 so if you are going to use the Martingale system, you better know exactly how much it is going to cost you after every loss.

But there are lots of variations of staking plans and many of them are not as extreme and the one I am going to talk about here, is what I call the 1, 2, 3 plan which works by increasing your next stake by your original stake each time you lose.

STOP and read that again because although the first bet looks like the start of the Martingale, after that the similarities end.

Here is an example.

£1, £2, £3, £4 £5

We are NOT actually doubling our stake. Instead we are adding our original stake to the next stake after a loss or a simpler way of looking at it is to note how many bets you have lost so far, add 1 to this number for the next bet and then multiply that by your original stake.

So if you have lost 2 bets add one for your next bet giving you 3 now times that by your original stake.

There are a couple of things you should be aware of with this idea. Firstly it works better if you are getting better than evens when you win. Secondly you unlikely to win all your losses back the further up the staking ladder you go.

So let us look at an example that you could use.

We have a bank of £100 and we are going to use this with the Triple Treats selections I am running on my blog.

First of all let us work out a stake. When staking you need to be cautious so we are going to divide our bank by 50 which will give us our start stake, in this case is £2

Here is what our staking ladder will look like.

2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 = £90 so we can only go 9 losing bets before we just about run out of money. See even this method builds up loses quickly.

Now say we lost 5 bets and on the 6th we won at 11/8. Our stake was £12 so we won back £16.50, but if you add up the previous 5 losses they come to £30 so even though we won, we are still out of pocket.

That’s because this is not really a loss recovery system it is more a “Get me some back” recovery system and will work better with short term losers rather than a long losing run.

So let’s try it out on Triple Treats and see how it works.

Before we do we need to set some ground rules so we are clear exactly what we are doing.
1.    As soon as we win we stop for the day. It doesn’t matter if we are in profit or not we stop and we work out our new stake.
2.    We will use this for a maximum of 6 losing bets. If we lose 6 times in a row we stop staking. We then take our new bank and divide it by 50 and start again.
3.    Every time we stop at a winner. We re divide our bank by 50 to find our new stake for the next day.

Let’s look at last weeks results and see where we stand now.

Remember we are starting with a £100 fantasy bank so our start stake is £2

We are going to start with Monday the 4th October.
14:10    Ponte    Ullswater Betfair early price 2.14  5th 5/4
15:40    Ponte    Ajaan 1st 5/4
One on the second runner. Stake £4 x 5/4 = £5 (lost 2.00 on the first race so profit is £3.00. New bank = 103.00 / 50 = New stake £2.06

5th October
14:20    Sthl    Abtasaamah Betfair early price 1.43 1st 2/7
Won on the first race won 0.58p so bank is now 103.58 / 50 = £2.07 is our next stake.

15:00    Towc    Micheal Flips Betfair early price 2.00 2nd 10/11
15:40    Nott    Audacious 4th 10/11
18:30    Kemp    Signs In The Sand  1st 13/8

We had to wait for the last race today which means our stake was £6.21 x 13/8 = 10.09. We lost 2.07 on the first race and 4.14 on the second so our actual profit was £3.88. New bank is £107.46, new stake is £2.14

I think I have explained how to do it so in the following examples I will simplify the P/L.

14:00 Worc Qroktou Betfair early price 1.79 2nd 4/9 Stake £2.14
15:20 Newb Vanguard Dream 1st 4/1 Stake £4.28

Start Bank £107.46
Losses - £2.14
Gains + £17.12
New Bank £122.44
New Stake £2.44

14:10 York Alben Star BF early price 2.64 6th 7/4 Stake £2.44
14:45 York Jet Away 6th 6/4 Stake £4.88
20:20 Wolv Commerce 1st 10/11 Stake £7.32

Start Bank £122.44
Losses - £7.32
Gains + £6.65
New Bank £121.77
New Stake £2.43

This is an example of how you can actually be down on the day because the winning bets odds were so low.

This was a Saturday and although we don’t show them on the blog on Saturdays I have already reported that we did have a full losing day, that looks like this.

Start Bank £122.44
Losses - £14.58
Gains + £0.00
New Bank £107.86
New Stake We are still using the staking plan so the stakes do not change.

16:20 Salis Secrecy EP 1.66 1st 1 / 2 Stake £9.72

Start Bank £107.86
Losses - £0.00
Gains + £4.86
New Bank £112.72
New Stake £ 2.25

As you can see again the odds of our winner were so small we hardly won any of our losses back. I will continue to add the bank figures to the selections daily to see how it works out.

Thanks for reading

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